Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

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Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby tbuckley » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:04 pm

Hello there, for anybody interested I've done a blog looking at some goals based statistics for the Big 6 in the Premier League so far this season.

Some may think it's still early days but fact is nearly 20% of the Premier League season has already gone so seems a good point at which to look at things and see if anything stands out, I've looked at areas such as Both Teams To Score, Over 2.5 goals, Win To Nil and Teams Scoring 2 or more goals for the Big 6 in the Premier League ie Manchester United, Man City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal.

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413075


here's a sample from the blog :-

"Both Teams To Score Statistics for Big 6 after 7 matches
Liverpool 4 out of 7 (57%)
Tottenham 3 out 7 (42.8%)
Chelsea 3 out of 7 (42.8%)
Man City 2 out of 7 (28%)
Man Utd 1 out of 7 (14%)
Arsenal 1 out of 7 (14%)

Thoughts on Both Teams To Score statistics :- My first reaction to those statistics is that you must have mostly felt disappointment if you'd been backing top 6 sides in your Both Teams To Score bets as the figures are not great and especially given that Both Teams To Score is usually quoted at odds on for most matches.

Liverpool top this list with 57% of their League matches being Both Teams To Score and that has collected in their last 3 Premier League matches but given that only 1 Manchester United league match has been a Both Teams To Score event doesn't exactly make the 8/13 for Both Teams To Score when they clash this Saturday appeal as a great bet, it could well happen obviously but it's not a bet I'd be desperate to be taking based on the BTTS statistics, as you'll see below the flip side is that Liverpool & Manchester United have both had plenty of games with Over 2.5 goals.

As for the other Big 6 sides then Tottenham are at home to struggling Bournemouth and Chelsea are away at Crystal Palace who are yet to score a single league goal, neither of those games has any real appeal as a Both Teams To Score bet at the odds and Man City face stoke at home, Man City have kept four consecutive clean sheets in the league while Stoke have been very poor away from home and again it's not really got the look of a Both Teams To Score match.

For me the most tempting Both Teams To Score match involving the Big 6 this weekend is Watford vs Arsenal but that is reflected in the odds at 8/15.
The danger in saying all this is that Sod's Law kicks in and there is a goal fest in the Premier League this weekend but based on the stats and the short odds there has to be better betting value available elsewhere and there will be better opportunities in future for the Both Teams To Score option. "


feel welcome to read the full blog and leave your comments on there if you wish, all thoughts and ideas welcome :win:
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby Burb123 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:57 am

Im going for a BTTS in the Liverpool and Watofrd game.

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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby tbuckley » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:57 am

hello Burb, cheers for joining in, BTTS collected in the Watford vs Arsenal game but never had a chance of collecting in the Liverpool vs United game because as expected Mourinho killed the game with negative tactics, people keep telling me that Mourinho delivers trophies but United's trophy cabinet is rammed, it would be nice to see entertaining football and especially not be scared of losing big matches, I can't stomach such a negative approach to be honest

As for how the blog went then I hope the blog helped in some way, the strongest recommendation for Both Teams To Score was Watford vs Arsenal and that collected, the strongest recommendation for Over 2.5 goals was Man City vs Stoke and Watford vs Arsenal and they collected, also mentioned Man City 3+ goals and that also came in.

The only let down was the win to nil picks as I thought Man City & Chelsea could do that, still I'm happy with how the blog worked out and I just hope it helped people make winning decisions and guided them away from losing ones.
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby tbuckley » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:20 pm

I've updated the stats & posted a new blog that now covers stats for big 6 in Premier League covering both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, matches won to nil, clean sheets & scored 2+ goal matches :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413083

hope the blog helps, would be great to get other views on this, all the best with whatever bets you have :win:
Last edited by tbuckley on Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby tbuckley » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:16 pm

well I hope people took the time to read my Premier League big 6 stats blog as it helped to highlight the following :-

The Chelsea vs Watford match delivered on both Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals front, Man City delivered with tip to keep a clean sheet, Win To Nil, Over 2.5 goals in the match and themselves scoring 2 or more goals

Although I said Tottenham v Liverpool didn't have huge appeal just from a basic both teams to score perspective at 8/15, I did suggest goals and stated that BTTS was likely and also that Over 2.5 goals had plenty of appeal, also added in Tottenham to score 2+ goals and so with that finishing 4-1 to Tottenham it all came right.

I've updated the stats blog to cover goals based statistics for the Big 6 in the Premier league :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413118


here is the section on Both Teams To Score from the blog :-

"Both Teams To Score Statistics for Big 6 after 9 matches

Liverpool 5 out of 9 (55%)


Chelsea 5 out of 9 (55%)





Man City 4 out of 9 (44%)


Tottenham 4 out of 9 (44%)


Arsenal 3 out 9 (33%)


Man United 2 out of 9 (22%)

Thoughts on Both Teams To Score statistics :- The immediate reaction those Both Teams To Score figures is that you must have mostly felt disappointment if you'd been backing top 6 sides in your Both Teams To Score bets as the figures are not great and especially given that Both Teams To Score is usually quoted at odds on for most matches.

The fact that the highest figure is 55% with both Liverpool and Chelsea having seen 5 of their 9 Premier League matches being Both Teams To Score matches shows that it's not been easy to land the BTTS in matches involving the Big 6 although last weekend 5 of the big 6 were involved in BTTS matches.

With regards to the forthcoming Premier League fixtures this weekend then at first glance the fixtures for the Big 6 don't look highly likely to be Both Teams To Score fixtures so caution is noted in this market.

Chelsea have had 5 of their 9 Premier League matches finish Both Teams To Score and that include our confident tip for Chelsea vs Watford to be BTTS last weekend at Evens, looking at this weekend then Bournemouth vs Chelsea looks the most likely of the Big 6 to be BTTS match and that looks worth risking at 4/6, Chelsea have conceded in 3 of their 4 away PL matches and their last 3 matches in all competitions have been BTTS.

Arsenal were massively impressive in dismissing a poor Everton side 5-2 and they'll be absolutely full of confidence taking on Swansea at home this weekend but while I expect Arsenal to get goals, I really don't see Swansea carrying too much threat and I couldn't recommend backing Arsenal vs Swansea to be a BTTS match, Arsenal have beaten Brighton, West Brom & Bournemouth all To Nil at home already this season and this looks another strong contender for that, for me it would have to be BTTS No in Arsenal vs Swansea.

Liverpool vs Huddersfield is a truly fascinating fixture given Liverpool go into it off the back of a 4-1 thrashing at Tottenham and Huddersfield impressively beat Man United 2-1, it's 11/10 for BTTS in Liverpool vs Huddersfield and there will be plenty tempted by that given Liverpool's defence but please factor in that Liverpool have only conceded 1 goal in 4 home PL matches and Huddersfield have not carried any goal threat away from home, again I'd side with Both Teams To Score NO in this one at 4/6.

The general consensus about Manchester City before the season started was they would be unreal in attack and score loads of goals but on the flip side would concede goals because of their poor defence but the truth is they've been excellent in both departments.

Man City have already kept 5 clean sheets and won 5 of their 9 games To Nil, only 4 of their 9 PL matches have been BTTS and given they go to taken on a struggling West Brom side who look quite blunt in attack at present then I don't see the sense in recommending BTTS Yes in this match at 10/11 and it has to be 4/5 on BTTS No that appeals more would be a surprise to see West Brom score given how they've played lately.
Without doubt the biggest fixture in the Premier League this weekend is Manchester United vs Tottenham, as a Manchester United fan I'm fearing what Tottenham will do and I'd personally take a draw now and move on but I do fear the worst.

The basic statistics look strong for Manchester United, they are yet to concede a PL goal at home, they've kept 7 clean sheets in 9 Premier League games and won 6 of them To Nil but quite simply I don't see them keeping Tottenham out this weekend and for me those particular statistics don't have too much value given the context of the fixture.

Right now Tottenham have way more strength & quality than Manchester United do, no other way of looking at it, I expect Tottenham to Score at least 1 goal and so that makes the 8/11 on BTTS Yes appeal as it would be truly disappointing if Manchester United couldn't score a goal, but in saying that it's not at all impossible that Tottenham will win it to nil. "


really hope the blogs interests people and helps :win:
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby Kessy1971 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:44 am

Good stuff Tommy lad, I do them bets most weeks in anyway, some good stats you put up their like,

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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby tbuckley » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:25 pm

Good stuff Tommy lad, I do them bets most weeks in anyway, some good stats you put up their like,
Cheers Kessy for those comments and hope you are well, feel free to put your goals based bets up here.

As it happens last weekend was a rubbish weekend for the predictions I offered up using the updated statistics, simply nothing went right, I fancied goals in the Bournemouth vs Chelsea and it was 1-0, I fancied both teams to score in United vs Tottenham and it was a boring 1-0, I said Arsenal would keep a clean sheet and the worst Swansea side I've seen scored early lol, just a weekend to forget but it was a reminder that anything can happen and to keep stakes to within your means, nothing guaranteed.

for those interested I've updated the statistics blog again for the Big 6 in the Premier League, looking at Both Teams To Score, Over 2.5 goals, Scoring 2+ goals, Win To Nil, Clean sheets, hope the blog helps :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413145


So far the section with the strongest statistics for all of the Big 6 in the Premier League is the Over 2.5 goals stats and here's that section from the blog with this weekend's matches in mind :-

"Over 2.5 Goals Statistics for Big 6 after 10 matches

Manchester City 8 out of 10 (80%)


Manchester United 6 out of 10 (60%)


Chelsea 6 out of 10 (60%)


Liverpool 6 out of 10 (60%)


Arsenal 6 out of 10 (60%)


Tottenham 5 out of 10 (50%)


Thoughts on Over 2.5 goals statistics :- Over 2.5 goals YES has definitely been a positive market for the Big 6 teams so far this season and indeed all of the Big 6 teams were involved in Over 2.5 goals matches last weekend, going forward the Over 2.5 goals market could prove to be the most solid, consistently successful market to concentrate on with the Big 6 this year.

Manchester City have been blitzing most teams so far this season and seemingly feel confident about scoring goals against anybody, that's backed up by their amazing goal statistics with 80% of their matches Over 2.5 goals and themselves scoring 2+ goals in 80% of their matches, it's easy to see why the bookmakers quote only 2/5 for Over 2.5 goals in the match against Arsenal, it's very short and Man City won't always score loads of goals but I won't oppose it as they've scored 18 goals in their last 4 Premier League home matches and Arsenal might be the next team to suffer.

With figures of 60% of Over 2.5 goals matches for both Chelsea and Manchester United then that at first glance that looks positive for Over 2.5 goals when they meet on Sunday, but I fear and suspect that's where the positivity will end.

Jose Mourinho's approach in big matches is to aim to not lose and not concede so I don't see United attacking or being positive, it will be about keeping Chelsea out and so there is no way I'd back Over 2.5 goals in that match, you never know and it could be a goalfest but I wouldn't recommend any money going on that and Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 looks the safer call.

Chelsea drew 0-0 at home with Arsenal, lost 1-0 at home to Man City, won 2-0 at home to Everton, Manchester United drew 0-0 at Liverpool, beat Tottenham 1-0 at home and 1-0 at Southampton, I just don't expect many goals, possibly only 1 or 2 at most.

It's 4/7 for Over 2.5 goals in West Ham United vs Liverpool and I've got to say that looks very tempting indeed given the likely open nature of the match as West Ham and Liverpool will attack and how they struggle to defend. "

That's the stats and my views on how I think the betting markets reflect for this weekend matches, will be fascinating seeing how it all unfold and I just hope it goes right this weekend. :win:
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby tbuckley » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:33 pm

Well I really hope people read the last blog & followed the advice posted, here is a range of the winning advice/bets :-

West Ham vs Liverpool match delivering 3 successful recommendations via Both Teams To Score YES, Over 2.5 goals and Liverpool to Score 2+ goals, I hope those and recommendations helped.

also this all came good on Super Sunday :-

Both Teams To Score advice :-

Chelsea vs Man United :-
"I really don't expect many goals in this and I it could well be another 1-0/0-0 type match so overall I'd have to say that BTTTS NO at 5/6 is the call in this one. "

West Ham vs Liverpool :-
"given the likely nature of the match with West Ham expected to attack, Liverpool expected to attack and both having fragile defences then Both Teams To Score YES at 8/15 looks the right option, "

Tottenham vs Palace :-

"Tottenham will be expecting 3 points against the bottom club in the Premier League and given that Palace took 8 matches just to score their first league goal and given Tottenham's usual defensive strength then the 4/5 on offer for BTTS NO looks the call to make in this market. "

Clean Sheet thoughts :-

Chelsea vs Man United :-
"7/4 on offer for a Chelsea Clean Sheet is definitely worth consideration at least. "
Tottenham vs Palace :-
"A Clean Sheet bet that does definitely have plenty of appeal is ,b> Tottenham to keep a Clean Sheet at 10/11 vs Crystal Palace as apart from Zaha I don't see Crystal Palace having enough attacking quality to damage Tottenham. "




Win To Nil thoughts :-
"Tottenham To Win To Nil at 11/10 also appeals in their match against Crystal Palace at home, they'll be fired up and concentrated to be strong and get the job done. "

Under 2.5 goals :-
Chelsea vs Man United :- "Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 looks the safer call. "

Man City vs Arsenal "Manchester City have been blitzing most teams so far this season and seemingly feel confident about scoring goals against anybody, that's backed up by their amazing goal statistics with 80% of their matches Over 2.5 goals and themselves scoring 2+ goals in 80% of their matches, it's easy to see why the bookmakers quote only 2/5 for Over 2.5 goals in the match against Arsenal, it's very short and Man City won't always score loads of goals but I won't oppose it as they've scored 18 goals in their last 4 Premier League home matches and Arsenal might be the next team to suffer. "

West Ham vs Liverpool :- "It's 4/7 for Over 2.5 goals in West Ham United vs Liverpool and I've got to say that looks very tempting indeed given the likely open nature of the match as West Ham and Liverpool will attack and how they struggle to defend. "


The aim is to hopefully repeat similar success again this coming weekend and the blog has been updated to include figures after the first 11 Premier League matches for the big 6 :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413198


here is the piece on Over 2.5 goals from within that blog :-

"Thoughts on Over 2.5 goals statistics :- Over 2.5 goals YES has definitely been a positive market for the Big 6 teams so far this season and indeed all of the Big 6 teams were involved in Over 2.5 goals matches last weekend, going forward the Over 2.5 goals market could prove to be the most solid, consistently successful market to concentrate on with the Big 6 this year.

Manchester City have been blitzing most teams so far this season and seemingly feel confident about scoring goals against anybody, that's backed up by their amazing goal statistics with 81% of their matches Over 2.5 goals and themselves scoring 2+ goals in 81% of their matches, it's easy to see why the bookmakers quote only 4/9 for Over 2.5 goals in the match against Leicester City, it's very short and Man City won't always score loads of goals but I won't oppose it there has to be every chance that Leicester City will get on the scoreboard at least once and you have to fancy Man City scoring at least twice against anybody.

Manchester United have seen 54% of their Premier League games go Over 2.5 goals but it's not happened since they beat Palace 4-0 at Old Trafford 5 games ago and judged on how poor they've been in recent matches I could not recommend backing Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 against Newcastle, would much prefer Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 as I can envisage a 1-0/2-0 Manchester United win at best, don't see Newcastle United offering too much attacking or goal threat given how poor they've been in front of goal so far this season.

Arsenal have had 63% of their PL matches be Over 2.5 goals and Tottenham 45% so it's not clear cut on those stats alone but as stated above in the BTTS analysis BTTS Yes is 4/9 and that does look likely, it's 8/13 for Over 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Tottenham and again that has plenty of merit given the likely profile of the match.

8/13 is the price on offer for Over 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Southampton and I have to say I wouldn't be rushing to recommend or back that, yes Liverpool have had Over 2.5 goals in 7 of their 11 Premier League matches but I feel the responsibility on taking it Over 2.5 goals lies firmly with Liverpool as Southampton don't score goals, you just wouldn't be confident on Southampton scoring too many, if any, so I'd say Under 2.5 goals is more likely and a better bet.

My thoughts on West Brom vs Chelsea from a BTTS perspective indicated that I've found it difficult to be confident about Chelsea but that on balance a game with both teams scoring was worth chancing and I feel the same about Over 2.5 goals given the odds on offer, Evens for Over 2.5 goals in West Brom looks worth chancing given that Chelsea have been erratic in defence and they might be just like that again straight after an international break."

all the best and good luck for the weekend ahead whatever bets you have :win:
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:23 pm

As those of a certain age may remember, Kenneth Williams on Round The Horne said "The answer lies in the soil".

Conspiracy theorists may think that the below par number of goals in the PL so far this season may be due to there being less soil between the goal posts due to crossbars being shortened as a result of austerity. :lol:

However, a more likely reason is the emphasis being placed on not losing matches rather than going all out to win them when teams are of a similkar standing; and settling for damage limitation in a number of cases where they are not.

In 110 matches, home teams have scored 157 goals and conceded 126 making the total 283 for an average of 2.573, (or 978 for the season). That figure compares poorly with the average of 2.711 (1030.20 for the season) taken over the previous 10 seasons.

Tommy is right to concentrate on the top 6 in general, but as I've also noticed with my Poisson spreadsheet, many matches between the big 6 have failed to live up to expectations, with only 4/9 seeing more than a single goal. :shock: The small sample size does mean this figure may be of little relevance.

The following analysis goes a long way to confirming his findings, but at the same time unearths a couple of intriguing possibilities. In home games, Man City 24 from 6, Man Utd 15 from 5, and Arsenal 13 from 5 are the only teams to score an average of 2+ goals per game at home, with Chelsea (9/6), Leicester (8/5), and Liverpool (9/5) the only others to average 1.50 or more.

Away from home, Watford have gatecrashed the party, being one of five clubs to average 2+ goals. Of the big 6, Man Utd 8 from 6 and Arsenal 7 from 6 are below that mark. Leicester and Burnley are the only other teams to average more than 1.00 per game.

Home games at Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs have seen a total of 60 goals from 16 games; at Everton, Stoke, West Ham, and Watford, 71 from 22. As that amounts to 131 in 38 matches (3.445 per game), it leaves just 152 in the other 72 (2.111 per game). Away matches, and overall matches may not prove as reliable in the short term as much may depend on whether the team has visited Arsenal or either Manchester club. It will be interesting to see how long these trends can continue.
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby weyayeman » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:16 am

Here is some info. to go along with your stats, I don’t know if you have been keeping a LSP record of the results to date so below is a record for the Over 1.5 & 2.5 goals bets.

LSP to 1pt for OVER 2.5 GOALS (after each team having played 11 games)

Man City (8 winning bets) +0.32pts
Liverpool (7) +0.27pts
Man Utd (6) -0.22pts
Chelsea (6) - 0.27pts
Spurs (5) -1.92**pts
Arsenal (6) -2.03pts
TOTAL LSP after 66 games = -3.85**pts (where 2 of the top 6 have played each other I have counted a stake of 2 pts)
(** the 2 figures marked have been amended from 1.90 & 4.12 respectively after spotting errors)

LSP to 1pt for OVER 3.5 GOALS (after each team having played 11 games)
Liverpool (6 winning games) +3.87pts
Man Utd (5) +3.41pts
Man City (6) +1.30pts
Spurs (3) -2.50pts
Chelsea (3) -3.75pts
Arsenal (3) -4.17pts
TOTAL LSP after 66 games = -1.84pts (where 2 of the top 6 have played each other I have counted a stake of 2 pts)


Of the 11 games played by each team to date, below is a list showing the odds of winning games
Man City
OVER 2.5 GOALS 1.40,1.57, 1.50, 1.33, 1.30, 1.25, 1.64, 1.33
OVER 3.5 GOALS 2.25, 2.25, 1.80, 1.67, 2.5, 1.83
Liverpool
OVER 2.5 GOALS 1.90, 1.50, 1.57, 1.57, 1.60, 1.53, 1.60
OVER 3.5 GOALS 2.75, 2.25, 2.25. 2.50, 2.62, 2.50
Man Utd
OVER 2.5 GOALS 1.70, 1.80, 2.00, 1.80, 1.53, 1.95
OVER 3.5 GOALS 2.63, 2.90, 3.50, 3.00, 2.38
Chelsea
OVER 2.5 GOALS 1.75, 2.00, 1.85, 1.70, 1.90, 1.53
OVER 3.5 GOALS 2.25, 2.75, 2.25
Spurs
OVER 2.5 GOALS 2.00, 1.95, 1.73, 1.80, 1.60
OVER 3.5 GOALS 2.63, 3.25, 2.62
Arsenal
OVER 2.5 GOALS 1.60, 1.33, 1.65, 1.70, 1.36, 1.33
OVER 3.5 GOALS 2.38, 2.62, 1.83


Odds for games coming up: 18th - 20th Nov (bet365)
Man City >2.5 = 1.44, >3.5 = 2.10
Liverpool >2.5 = 1.64, >3.5 = 2.62
Man Utd >2.5 = 1.85, >3.5 = 3.25
Chelsea >2.5 = 2.04, >3.5 = 3.75
Spurs** >2.5 = 1.60, >3.5 = 2.50
Arsenal** >2.5 = 1.60, >3.5 = 2.50

**Arsenal play Spurs this weekend

As for picking bets for his weekend, The only two Premiership games I would think of having a bet on the overs market are:
Man City away at Leicester looks the obvious choice and 1.44 for over 2.5 could be worth a go.

Liverpool v Southampton is another game that should be good for goals and 1.64 does not look too short.

Arsenal v Spurs is a game where we could see goals but at odds of 1.60 I am not so sure I will be having a bet

There have been 2 weekends when all of the games involving the Big 6 had over 2.5 goals, on both of these weekends the teams were only involved in a total of 5 games as two of the teams were playing together, on those 2 occasions the accumulators paid out at odds of 15.066 & 10.144.
If you had backed 1pt per team each weekend, therefore placing 2pts on a game involving 2 of the teams, you would have had placed a total of 66pts to date with returns of 151.260pts giving a profit of 85.26pts.

The problem with finding teams that are knocking the goals in is that the bookies also notice and adjust their odds accordingly, if you look at the figures above it can be seen that backing the “Big 6” blindly would have led to losses at Level Stakes. Only 2 of the current big 6 have shown a profit in the Over 2.5 goals market despite the high total goal count from all 6 teams.
The difficult part of the bet selection process is determining if the odds are worth taking for the bet and until the result comes in you can never be certain if you have made the correct decision!
Last edited by weyayeman on Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:46 am


There have been 2 weekends when all of the games involving the Big 6 had over 2.5 goals, on both of these weekends the teams were only involved in a total of 5 games as two of the teams were playing together, on those 2 occasions the accumulators paid out at odds of 15.066 & 10.144.
If you had backed 1pt per team each weekend, therefore placing 2pts on a game involving 2 of the teams, you would have had placed a total of 66pts to date with returns of 151.260pts giving a profit of 85.26pts.

Something doesn't quite seem right.

It may simply be an error in typing, a fact missed out, or a misinterpretation on my part, but from the figures you show, a massive profit on singles is the last thing I would expect, and accas would not involve 66 pts staking.
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Re: Premier League 2017/18 - Goals Based Statistics for Big 6 so far

Postby weyayeman » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:01 pm

David,
What I was trying to get across was that of the 11 games played to date by each team, there were two weeks when all of the “big 6” teams were involved in games that resulted in over 2.5 goals.
As I know some people like to regularly place accumulators I though I would mention this fact..

In my figures for the singles I have used LSP using 1pt per team, that is 6pts per weekend and in my example for the accas I have used the equivalent of the total singles stake of 6pts placed on an acca just as a comparison, therefore, the total staked for both the singles and accumulator is 6pts/week x 11 weeks = 66pts (for both singles and accas).

So over the 11 weeks to date:

The total P&L for the singles with 1pt staked per team were
Over 2.5 goals = -3.85pts (error on original post, showing as -4.12)
Over 3.5 goals = -1.84pts

The total P&L for the accumulators (OVER 2.5 GOALS) to a 6pts stake(equivalent to 1pt/team) on each accumulator = +85.26pts

In hindsight, I should have also quoted the figures for the accumulator to the usual LSP staking of 1pt, as with the singles,

For the record the LSP on the over 2.5 goals accumulators to 1pt stake = +14.21pts

I hope that makes it a bit clearer :win:

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