Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

garlicsauce
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Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby garlicsauce » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:33 pm

Duscission & Selections on all PREMIER LEAGUE games for Friday, Saturday and Sunday................................................................................


FRI -
Arsenal v Leicester - ko 19.45

SAT -
Watford v Liverpool - ko 12.30
Chelsea v Burnley - ko 15.00
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield - ko 15.00
Everton v Stoke - ko 15.00
Southampton v Swansea - ko 15.00
West Brom v Bournemouth - ko 15.00
Brighton v Man City - ko 17.30

SUN -
Newcastle v Spurs - ko 13.30
Man Utd v West Ham - ko 16.00


What will you be watching and betting on?

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby monkeytennis » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:33 pm

One angle I'd be quite interested in is how settled each team is.

So at one end of the scale we have Spurs, they'll probably be down to their 3rd choice right back from last season (if you include Kyle Walker) but that will probably be Eric Dier who can fit in fairly seemlessly. With a very settled starting XI I can see Spurs making a strong start to the season and picking up 3 points against Newcastle.

At the other end of the scale we have Everton who have sold Lukaku, almost certainly won't be fielding a wantaway Barkley and are likely to be giving debuts to several players. I don't really think they have replaced the goals that Lukaku scored last year and I can see them failing to beat Stoke, with 0-0 perhaps the most likely scoreline in that particular game.

Any know of any other teams that are either going to be lining up almost exactly as they were last season or very differently to last season's team?

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby undertherobe » Mon Aug 07, 2017 4:17 pm

The 2 games against Ruzomberok will benefit Everton. It wasn't pretty but it's handed competitive debuts to the players expected to line up on Saturday.

There's no doubting Everton have got to be sharper, but Stoke are playing their first competitive match of the season so i expect a bit of sluggishness from them.

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby trouserdog78 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:31 pm

The 2 games against Ruzomberok will benefit Everton. It wasn't pretty but it's handed competitive debuts to the players expected to line up on Saturday.

There's no doubting Everton have got to be sharper, but Stoke are playing their first competitive match of the season so i expect a bit of sluggishness from them.
Stoke always tend to start slowly under Mark Hughes. Last season we didn't look sharp enough after only playing 4 friendlies, but this year we've been a lot busier- playing 7 games aginst decent opposition.

N Neuchatal Xamax 1-0 W Routine win against a Swiss second div side
N Young Boys 2-2 D Decent result with a mixed side of first team and fringe players
N Monaco 2-4 L Looked good going forward, terible at the back.
A Sheff Utd 1-2 L Disappointing result with a strong team
A Bolton 2-1 W Solid display
A St Pauli 2-4 L Awful at the back again but pretty much a reserve side.
A RB Liepzig 2-1 W Best display and result of pre-season.

The problem we have at the moment is the defence. Obviously Jack Butland is brilliant, but he absolutely needs to be with some of the comedy capers going on in-front of him. We're hoping that Kurt Zouma will shore things up a bit, as Ryan Shawcross doesn't look the same since his back problem 12 months ago. The real problems are the full-backs, as Glen Johnson looks like he's running through treacle these days, while Erik Pieters is just bloody hopeless. 14 goals conceded in 7 friendly games tells its own story really.

We're counting on Bruno Martins Indi rejoining us, as he held the defence together last year. If we've got him back (and rumours are that he'll be putting pen to paper in the next 48 hours- finally!) then I'd feel a lot more confident about our backline. However, the other unknown is whether Hughes will go 4 or 3 at the back. If it's the latter then things can get really kamikaze, and I'd be considering Everton and BTTS as the bet to be on. When we played that system away at Arsenal and Liverpool last year we swarmed all over them for about 20 minutes, took the lead in both games, then ended up collapsing as soon as they worked out all they needed to do was get the ball behind our wing backs and exploit the space there.

Most of us suspect that Hughes will start the game 3-4-3, which will still be risky if we've got a backline of Zouma-Shawcross-BMI, but if we've got Glen Johnson involved back there then it'll be suicide.

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby KanKeano » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:25 am

Arsenal v Leicester

Looking at the opening game of the Premier League season tonight think Arsenal to win by one goal might be the bet. Not sure what to make of Arsenal in pre-season. They were poor against Munich in the Audi Cup but some how hung on for draw, very poor against Chelsea in China losing 3-0, poor against Seville losing at home in the Emirates Cup, beat Benfica in the same competition (which I didn't see) and then grabbed a draw in the Community Shield last weekend after being the best team in the second half.

Very hard to judge if they have actually improved or not in the close season. Obviously Lacazette is a good signing but has he improved the forward line. Will he have a bigger impact than a Giroud or Sanchez up top. From the outside looking in it's just another option for them. There only other signing has been the full back from Schalke 04. Apparently he was voted into the Bundesliga team of the season last season and did look a decent player last weekend but some Arsenal fans slated him for his previous performances in pre-season.

Haven't seen Leicester at all in pre-season but they looked to have strengthened. Iheanacho was a good signing from City - good strikers are a precious commodity - but he's likely to miss tonight's game and they signed Harry Maguire to compete with Morgan and Huth in the centre of defence. Maguire had a decent debut season with relegated Hull last time out.

In the last 3 seasons Arsenal have won this game by the odd goal -

16/17 - Arsenal 1-0 Leicester
15/16 - Arsenal 2-1 Leicester
14/15 - Arsenal 2-1 Leicester

Last season, it took Leicester 14 away games to pick up their first win and surely it can't take as long this season but I can't see it being on the opening night. No-one wnats to open their campaign with a defeat so I'm expecting a tight affair with Arsenal just to shade it as they did some many times early last season.

Arsenal to win by 1 @ 3.75 - bet365
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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby garlicsauce » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:35 pm

One things for sure both Arsenal and Leicester will score and conceed this season and Wegner will be under pressure throughout the whole season. Great game for the neutrals, but both defenses were poor. Ramsey made a difference when he came on I thought. Go on the Welsh boyo!

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby garlicsauce » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:39 pm

Nice call KK arsenal to win by 1

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby richmiester » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:49 pm

Arsenal v Leicester

Looking at the opening game of the Premier League season tonight think Arsenal to win by one goal might be the bet. Not sure what to make of Arsenal in pre-season. They were poor against Munich in the Audi Cup but some how hung on for draw, very poor against Chelsea in China losing 3-0, poor against Seville losing at home in the Emirates Cup, beat Benfica in the same competition (which I didn't see) and then grabbed a draw in the Community Shield last weekend after being the best team in the second half.

Very hard to judge if they have actually improved or not in the close season. Obviously Lacazette is a good signing but has he improved the forward line. Will he have a bigger impact than a Giroud or Sanchez up top. From the outside looking in it's just another option for them. There only other signing has been the full back from Schalke 04. Apparently he was voted into the Bundesliga team of the season last season and did look a decent player last weekend but some Arsenal fans slated him for his previous performances in pre-season.

Haven't seen Leicester at all in pre-season but they looked to have strengthened. Iheanacho was a good signing from City - good strikers are a precious commodity - but he's likely to miss tonight's game and they signed Harry Maguire to compete with Morgan and Huth in the centre of defence. Maguire had a decent debut season with relegated Hull last time out.

In the last 3 seasons Arsenal have won this game by the odd goal -

16/17 - Arsenal 1-0 Leicester
15/16 - Arsenal 2-1 Leicester
14/15 - Arsenal 2-1 Leicester

Last season, it took Leicester 14 away games to pick up their first win and surely it can't take as long this season but I can't see it being on the opening night. No-one wnats to open their campaign with a defeat so I'm expecting a tight affair with Arsenal just to shade it as they did some many times early last season.

Arsenal to win by 1 @ 3.75 - http://olbg.info/7/L40/D/words>bet365>
Great call. Good game to open the season, was going to back Lacazette to score any time but didn't fancy the odds on offer.
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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby undertherobe » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:08 pm

Over the last decade, promoted teams have played away from home on opening weekend on 15 occasions. 12 of those have ended in defeat and 7 of those have been by at least 2 goals.

Crystal Palace @ 5/6 & -1.5 (AH) @ 40/17

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby danbradley » Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:42 am

A great tip by KK to get the season started - bet you didn't think that was coming in after 80 minutes....

It's a bit of more of the same from Arsenal, sure they won, it was dramatic, but if they are going to win the league then they need to be winning games 2-0 not 4-3 with 2 goals in the last 10 mins to turn the game around. You can't do that week in, week out, and you can't concede 3 goals and expect to win most weeks.

For tomorrow's games, I can see potential for 'upsets' in a number...

Liverpool struggled against bottom half teams last season, and have been distracted by the Coutinho saga over the last few days. With Lallana and Coutinho out, and Watford likely to defend resolutely, some kind of result for Watford seems good value (Watford @ 5/1 or Watford and BTTS at 10/1 - this is Liverpool we're talking about!)

Chelsea have also had something of an unsettled pre-season. They are also missing Costa, who is frozen out, and Hazard and Pedro - their main scoring threats from midfield. Considering Morata missed a pen on debut (what a way to build some confidence...), I can see them struggling against Burnley, and a nil-nil draw could be a good option (0-0 @ 14/1)

Palace looked like they were coming to terms with De Boer and his style of play (which doesn't seem suited to their main attacking threat in Benteke). Huddersfield have a more settled side, they know their manager, and they came out of the traps like a steam train last season. They look a good price to get a win on their Premier League debut - extra motivation there. (Huddersfield @ 5.3)

In the Everton game, I actually like the home side to win as I don't rate Stoke this season, but a better price might be BTTS - NO. Everton have lost their main goal threat, and their main creator isn't going to play. Rooney and Sandro hardly looked like they were about to bag a ton of goals between them in the Europa League. Stoke have no creditable striker, and have little in behind now with Arnautovic leaving. Shaqiri has never bagged the goals we expected of him, and overall they just look so short on goals. Overall it looks like we are going to get at least one clean sheet here (BTTS - No @ 1.87)

Finally I have to bet against my own team, Southampton, as you can see in my blog. The Swans are being judged on a league position last year that doesn't reflect the ability of the side and Clement will bring more out of them this year. Saints had a poor record at home last season and can't be trusted at short prices. Of more interest might be the 0-0 HT correct score. We've had 5 1-0 results in the last 7 games, with all of them 0-0 at half time, and overall 7 of the last 10 games between the sides have been 0-0 at the break. (HT 0-0 @ 2.88)

Good luck to everyone having a bet over the weekend :win:

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby JustAnotherPunter » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:02 am

Placed a small accumulator with bet365:

Goals over:

1.0, 1,5 - Arsenal vs Leceister @ 1.11
1.0, 1.5 - Watford vs Liverpool @ 1.15
1.0, 1,5 - Chelsea vs Burnley @ 1.13
1.0, 1,5 - Brighton vs Man City @ 1.115
1.0, 1,5 - New Castle vs Tottenham @ 1.15

Combined odds of 1.85 if all legs are successful. So far, first leg is through successfully :)

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Re: Premier League Discussion 11/12 & 13 August

Postby LostInAmsterdam » Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:25 am

Placed a small accumulator with http://olbg.info/7/L3/D/words>bet365>:

Goals over:

1.0, 1,5 - Arsenal vs Leceister @ 1.11
1.0, 1.5 - Watford vs Liverpool @ 1.15
1.0, 1,5 - Chelsea vs Burnley @ 1.13
1.0, 1,5 - Brighton vs Man City @ 1.115
1.0, 1,5 - New Castle vs Tottenham @ 1.15

Combined odds of 1.85 if all legs are successful. So far, first leg is through successfully :)
This looks a great bet to me :win:

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