Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Micko70
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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby Micko70 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:20 pm

Right, regarding my betting of a result & over 1.5 goals next season, here are the stats from the 17 Premier League teams from last seasons Premier League

HOME RECORD
Bournemouth - 9 wins (6 over 1.5 & 3 under), 6 losses (6 over 1.5) & 4 draws (3 over 1.5 & 1 under)
Arsenal - 14 wins (12 over 1.5 & 2 under), 2 losses (2 over 1.5) & 3 draws (2 over 1.5 & 1 under)
Burnley - 10 wins (6 over 1.5 & 4 under), 6 losses (4 over 1.5 & 2 under) & 3 draws (3 over 1.5)
Chelsea - 17 wins (16 over 1.5 and 1 under), 2 losses (2 over 1.5) & 0 draws
Crystal Palace - 6 wins (4 over 1.5 & 2 under), 11 losses (6 over 1.5 & 5 under) & 2 draws (2 over 1.5)
Everton - 13 wins (11 over 1.5 & 2 under), 2 losses (1 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 4 draws (4 over 1.5)
Leicester - 10 wins (9 over 1.5 & 1 under), 5 losses (5 over 1.5) & 4 draws (2 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Liverpool - 12 wins (11 over 1.5 & 1 under), 2 losses (2 over 1.5) & 5 draws (3 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Man City - 11 wins (11 over 1.5), 1 loss (1 over 1.5) & 7 draws (5 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Man Utd - 8 wins (7 over 1.5 & 1 under), 1 loss (1 over 1.5) & 10 draws (7 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Southampton - 6 wins (3 over 1.5 & 3 under), 7 losses (6 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 6 draws (2 over 1.5 & 4 under)
Stoke - 7 wins (6 over 1.5 & 1 under), 6 losses (5 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 6 draws (4 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Swansea - 8 wins (7 over 1.5 & 1 under), 8 losses (8 over 1.5) & 3 draws (1 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Tottenham - 17 wins (14 over 1.5 & 3 under), 0 losses & 2 draws (2 over 1.5)
Watford - 8 wins (5 over 1.5 & 3 under), 7 losses (5 over 1.5 & 2 under) & 2 draws (1 over 1.5 & 1 under)
West Brom - 9 wins (8 over 1.5 & 1 under), 8 losses (4 over 1.5 & 4 under) & 2 draws (1 over 1.5 & 1 under)
West Ham - 7 wins (1 over 1.5 & 6 under), 8 losses (8 over 1.5) & 4 draws (3 over 1.5 & 1 under)

AWAY RECORD
Bournemouth - 3 wins (1 over 1.5 & 2 under), 10 losses (9 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 6 draws (5 over 1.5 & 1 under)
Arsenal - 9 wins (8 over 1.5 & 1 under), 7 losses (7 over 1.5 ) & 3 draws (2 over 1.5 & 1 under)
Burnley - 1 win (1 over 1.5), 14 losses (13 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 4 draws (1 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Chelsea - 13 wins (9 over 1.5 & 4 under), 3 losses (3 over 1.5) & 3 draws (3 over 1.5)
Crystal Palace - 6 wins (6 over 1.5), 10 losses (8 over 1.5 & 2 under) & 3 draws (3 over 1.5)
Everton - 4 wins (3 over 1.5 & 1 under), 9 losses (6 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 6 draws (4 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Leicester - 2 wins (1 over 1.5 & 1 under), 13 losses (10 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 4 draws (3 over 1.5 & 1 under)
Liverpool - 10 wins (7 over 1.5 & 3 under), 4 losses (4 over 1.5) & 5 draws (4 over 1.5 & 1 under)
Man City - 12 wins (12 over 1.5), 5 losses (4 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 2 draws (2 over 1.5)
Man Utd - 10 wins (9 over 1.5 & 1 under), 4 losses (4 over 1.5) & 5 draws (2 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Southampton - 6 wins (5 over 1.5 & 1 under), 9 losses (8 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 4 draws (1 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Stoke - 4 wins (2 over 1.5 & 2 under), 10 losses (7 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 5 draws (4 over 1.5 & 1 under)
Swansea - 4 wins (3 over 1.5 & 1 under), 13 losses (10 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 2 draws (2 over 1.5)
Tottenham - 9 wins (8 over 1.5 & 1 under), 4 losses (2 over 1.5 & 2 under) & 6 draws (4 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Watford - 3 wins (2 over 1.5 & 1 under), 13 losses (10 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 3 draws (2 over 1.5 & 1 under)
West Brom - 3 wins (2 over 1.5 & 1 under), 9 losses (6 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 7 draws (6 over 1.5 & 1 under)
West Ham - 5 wins (4 over 1.5 & 1 under), 9 losses (8 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 5 draws (4 over 1.5 & 1 under)

OVERALL RECORD
Bournemouth - 12 wins (7 over 1.5 & 5 under), 16 losses (15 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 10 draws (8 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Arsenal - 23 wins (20 over 1.5 & 3 under), 9 losses (9 over 1.5) & 6 draws (4 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Burnley - 11 wins (7 over 1.5 & 4 under), 20 losses (17 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 7 draws (4 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Chelsea - 30 wins (25 over 1.5 & 5 under), 5 losses (5 over 1.5) & 3 draws (3 over 1.5)
Crystal Palace - 12 wins (10 over 1.5 & 2 under), 21 losses (14 over 1.5 & 7 under) & 5 draws (5 over 1.5)
Everton - 17 wins (14 over 1.5 & 3 under), 11 losses (7 over 1.5 & 4 under) & 10 draws (8 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Leicester - 12 wins (10 over 1.5 & 2under), 18 losses (15 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 8 draws (5 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Liverpool - 22 wins (18 over 1.5 & 4 under), 6 losses (6 over 1.5) & 10 draws (7 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Man City - 23 wins (23 over 1.5), 6 losses (5 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 9 draws (7 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Man Utd - 18 wins (16 over 1.5 & 2 under), 5 losses (5 over 1.5) & 15 draws (9 over 1.5 & 6 under)
Southampton - 12 wins (8 over 1.5 & 4 under), 16 losses (14 over 1.5 & 2 under) & 10 draws (3 over 1.5 & 7 under)
Stoke - 11 wins (8 over 1.5 & 3 under), 16 losses (12 over 1.5 & 4 under) & 11 draws (8 over 1.5 & 3 under)
Swansea - 12 wins (10 over 1.5 & 2under), 21 losses (18 over 1.5 & 3 under) & 5 draws (3 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Tottenham - 26 wins (22 over 1.5 & 4 under), 4 losses ( 2 over 1.5 & 2 under) & 6 draws (4 over 1.5 & 2 under)
Watford - 11 wins (7 over 1.5 & 4 under), 20 losses (15 over 1.5 & 5 under) & 7 draws (5 over 1.5 & 2 under)
West Brom - 12 wins (10 over 1.5 & 2 under), 17 losses (10 over 1.5 & 7 under) & 9 draws (7 over 1.5 & 2 under)
West Ham - 12 wins (5 over 1.5 & 7 under), 17 losses (16 over 1.5 & 1 under) & 9 draws (7 over 1.5 & 2 under)

Now, looking at games each side played that saw at least 2 goals in them

HOME RECORD
Chelsea x 18
Man City x 17
Arsenal x 16
Everton x 16
Leicester x 16
Liverpool x 16
Swansea x 16
Tottenham x 16
Bournemouth x 15
Man Utd x 15
Stoke x 15
Burnley x 13
Watford x 13
West Brom x 13
Crystal Palace x 12
West Ham x 12
Southampton x 11

AWAY RECORD
Man City x 18
Arsenal x 17
Crystal Palace x 17
West Ham x 16
Bournemouth x 15
Burnley x 15
Chelsea x 15
Liverpool x 15
Man Utd x 15
Swansea x 15
Leicester x 14
Southampton x 14
Tottenham x 14
Watford x 14
West Brom x 14
Everton x 13
Stoke x 13

OVERALL RECORD
Man City x 35
Arsenal x 33
Chelsea x 33
Liverpool x 31
Swansea x 31
Bournemouth x 30
Leicester x 30
Man Utd x 30
Tottenham x 30
Crystal Palace x 29
Everton x 29
Burnley x 28
Stoke x 28
West Ham x 28
Watford x 27
West Brom x 27
Southampton x 25

Stand Out Stats
Bournemouth only lost 1 of 16 games 1-0, 15 were over 1.5 goals
Arsenal lost 9 league games, all had over 1.5 goals
Chelsea lost 5 league games, all had over 1.5 goals
Liverpool lost 6 league games, all had over 1.5 goals
Man City's 23 league wins all had over 1.5 goals
Man Utd's 5 losses all saw over 1.5 goals
West Ham lost 1 of their 17 losses 1-0, the other 16 saw over 1.5 goals.

wonderwall
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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby wonderwall » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:28 pm

Over 1.5 & match result is good, but you may get a bigger margin on Match result & over 2.5 goals. I've posted about that in another thread, where I was trying to figure out what's the logic behind those odds, there is certainly value you can milk there.

Micko70
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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby Micko70 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:35 am

Over 1.5 & match result is good, but you may get a bigger margin on Match result & over 2.5 goals. I've posted about that in another thread, where I was trying to figure out what's the logic behind those odds, there is certainly value you can milk there.
Yes you do get bigger odds for match result and over 2.5, you also get bigger odds for match result and over 3.5, this is where greed steps in.

Just look at this and see the difference between over 1.5 goals and over 2.5 goals, for some teams the gap is huge - http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... land&tid=c

As you can see, only 7 sides average 3 goals+ in their matches last season, yet they all average over 2

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby nors » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:39 am

We can also mix these stats with Poisson theory which Davidg, garethP and makkad have been working on.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=61974&hilit=poisson

All the time adding bits and pieces of stats that cumulate into good bets.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:36 am

With stats such as goals, ( even more so with corners, cards etc.) I feel that averages can be misleading if not backed up by some form of frequency expectation.

Last season, Burnley's home games had 6 instances of over 2.5 goals; Middlesbrough had 9. However, the average goals per game were 2.42 and 2.11 respectively.

Similarly, Southampton and Stoke had 7 each but with average goals of 2.00 and 2.53.

Home games for both Southampton and Manchester United averaged just 2.00 goals per match although Southampton had 7 games with more than 2 goals and Manchester United just 4.

Sunderland saw 11 but the average of 2.63 was the same as West Ham (9) and less than both other teams with 11 instances, as well as Arsenal, Everton, and Watford with 10 instances each.

I shall enter the details for away games here later.
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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby ibfm23 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:50 am

Hello everyone :)

In the first place I will be looking at ante-post bets which worked very well in the past two seasons. Two years ago I had big winners from Kane and Lukaku in the top scorer markets. Last year I had Chelsea top at Christmas and to win the league and Liverpool top scoring team which I shorted in March at a big profit.

With respect to ongoing bets I will be focusing on the 2.5 - 3.5 odds ranges where I feel there is most value. I put together a stats based approach which worked well last year and which I am refining this year. I am aiming for a 50% strike rate at those odds which in the long term should yield a good return.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby wonderwall » Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:16 pm


As you can see, only 7 sides average 3 goals+ in their matches last season, yet they all average over 2
Yes, that is true, and that would be reflected as well in the odds. It *sometimes* works that the higher the probability of something the worse the value given in the odds. Little value in over 1.5 goals is what i've seen.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby Micko70 » Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:44 pm

Sorry, but now sure what you mean by little value, 13 sides had an average per game of under 3 goals yet backing a team to win & over 1.5 goals ALWAYS gives you better odds, where is there no value in that

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby wonderwall » Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:58 pm

There's little or no value, else you'd be doing it and not be posting about it :)

What I've found, the lower the odds, the less likely to be long-term success (hence less value), but if it works for you, thats great.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby Robmull » Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:26 pm

I am not a prolific punter when it comes to betting on football, however a few of my friends and relations have developed a couple of strategies that may be of interest to readers of this thread.

The simplest strategy, albeit it doesn't solely relate to the Premier League is to blindly follow the selections of Kevin Pullein in the Racing Post, providing the punter places the bet very soon after the electronic version of the RP is downloaded and can secure the odds at which KP believes offers value.

The second strategy has been developed by one of my Nephews, who believes that traditional statistics such as historic league tables, head to head results, number of goals scored/conceded in games can be misleading.

His argument centres around the fact that teams rarely field the same players in consecutive games, due to injury, suspensions and transfers in and out during the specified transfer window period.

Thus a Manchester United side starting the new EPL season may field a very different set of player to that which finished the previous season, or turned up to play the same opponents in previous years, whilst the line up of the opposition is also likely to have changed significantly over the period.

Therefore, instead of using traditional statistics to assess the likelihood of a particular outcome during the match, analysis should be linked to the recent performances of the players that each team fields for the match in question.

I am not sure which sources he uses to secure the data on which he bases his analysis, or the full details of algorithms he deploys to crunch the numbers to turn them into probabilities for the various outcomes, but he ends up with a list of around a dozen likely occurrences for each match, which he then compares against the odds that are quoted by the bookmakers and exchanges, which enables him to isolate the value bets (if any) for the match in question.

However, as I mentioned in a recent blog article my nephew has made consistent profits over the past 8 years using this strategy, so he must be doing something right and has agreed to share his selections with me in return for me providing him with the selections from one of my profitable Horse Racing strategies.

It would be great to hear from any reader who has adopted a similar strategy for assessing football matches, or indeed any other team sport where the strength of performance is closely linked to which squad members are selected to play in the match.

I also note there has been an interesting discussion regarding value in respect of betting on total goals scored during matches, which highlights a common misconception regarding value betting.

Many punters believe that backing selections at bigger odds must offer better value rather than placing wagers at shorter odds, but that is not always the case, as securing value depends solely on placing a bet at odds which underestimate the chance of the event occurring.

So backing an outcome at say 5/1 (16.7%) when the probability is that there is only a 12% chance of it occurring does not offer value, but placing a wager at odds of say 1/2 (66.7%) when the chance of winning that bet is actually 80%, is the way forward to making consistent sustainable profits.

Obviously, much depends on how accurately the punter can assess the probability of the outcome, but if their method is proven, then better to take the short odds and collect a relatively modest return, than take a chance at bigger sexy odds which will probably result in long term losses.

At the end of the day each possible outcome needs to be assessed for value and most successful punters will end up backing a mixture of short and long priced selections based on their own assessment of the likely outcome compared with the best odds that can be secured at the time the bet is placed.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby toadie21 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:12 pm

Have only just stumbled across this as football has been off my agenda the last month. But I'm starting to gear up for the new season and there has been some interesting points made.

The first thing I look at when planning for the season ahead is my staking plan. I set out a strict set of rules and limit the number of games I'm going to bet for that round of fixtures.

Last season I was betting 4folds and one 6fold on the 1x2 market but almost always ignored the draw. I had a couple of good wins but also long losing runs.
Towards the end of the season I started to think about this seasons plans and started looking at draws more closely and also the corners market.

I'v yet to finalise my betting approach for this season but am looking to incorporate draws and corners into my betting. I am also looking at doing doubles instead of the 4fold. This way I will have many small wins instead of a few big wins.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby ICEMAN08 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:43 am

Have to agree with toadie for some reason you never trust yourself picking a draw which almost always results in losing your bet because of that odd draw. Last was season taught me not to ignore the draw and seperate emotion from betting. Being a Man Utd fan i didn't want to accept we were going to draw against some of the relegation battlers. I soon learnt to ignore the nonsense of man utd just being unlucky.

Last season i had focused on doubles or trebles of favourites and also found a good way to increase odds and value was to mix it with a over/under or goalscorer bet. Playing some of the fantasy games linked to the EPL worked wonders in this regard. The stats involved in picking players for your fantasy team give great insights into which fixtures bring the best scoring returns for any particular player.

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