Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

nors
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Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby nors » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:18 am

With not so much football around in the summer this gives us time to think about and hone our betting approach in time for the new season. Last season i was pleased with returns when taking on short priced favourites. As more and more statistics and new ideas become available to the bettor and with the bookies having to offer prices on all markets i wondered whether any members had been delving into any new ideas for the upcoming season.

Too often it seems we have a scattergun approach and back things we fancy as opposed to being more methodical and diligent. Some of the football forum bloggers have been more methodical and stick to their plans, but i feel its something we all need to do. The close season is an ideal time to review and prepare your football betting strategy.

Can any members provide their strategy for the new season, before the season kicks off on August 12th

The member who provides the best insight to their methods will win a £10 forum reward.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby undertherobe » Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:07 pm

As a fan of a Premier League team, my early days of betting on the PL was pretty much ruled by what I wanted to happen.

As any football fan will know, there's a lot of emotion involved in supporting a team and I've found that emotion & betting doesn't go particularly well.

So I've removed the emotional element & now stick to what has proved to be a successful statistical approach, with a 20% ROI & 71% strike rate from the 1x2 PL market in 16/17.

Even if it means occasionally backing Everton to lose or Liverpool to win :D

I also think the need for some people to have a bet if they're watching a live match can lead to problems. Yes, there may be 100s of markets available now, but that doesn't mean there's value in any of them

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby nors » Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:18 pm

Its weighing up the emotion of supporting your own team + the gleaned knowledge of your own team v not being too bias towards them , because you want them to win.

With in play i think if you have done the research ahead of the game and you couldn't find any bets at the price, things could change in play.

There may have been no value on an unbeaten home team at 1.5 but if they go behind in the first 10 minutes and are suddenly 3.0 to win the game then there can be opportunities? The key is the research so your are prepped for changes in price.

The better prepared we are the more i feel we can win.

Your returns were excellent last season (20% ROI & 71% strike rate from the 1x2 PL market in 16/17.) If we could all hit 20% ROI that would be fantastic.

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:29 pm

Bookmakers tend to be fairly lazy when it comes to the Season Handicap markets. The most notable blip came two years ago when Leicester were given +45 points at the start of their title-winning season following the fine run of form during the Great Escape of the previous season. Only Chelsea's remarkable run last year (which looked far from remarkable early on) prevented West Brom and Burnley making a stronger challenge than they did, although both still collected 'place money'. The lower leagues (mainly the Championship) can prove more difficult to unravel due to their competitiveness. I look forward to seeing where value can be found this season.

It will soon be time to look more closely at the Premier League relegation market. Last season was infuriating as it was going so well early on but ultimately sustained a slight loss.

As ever, I also like to keep an eye on trends and statistics. While these are closely related, they should still be treated independently by those unfamiliar with treating them together. Remember, statistics lead to the making of a trend, not the other way round. Please visit my blog Were 2016/17 Premier League stats in line with 10 year averages? which covers many aspects of this. At times, statistics and trends can prove valuable in steering you away from bad ideas as well as pointing in the right direction at others.

In the latter part of last season, I held discussions with a few other OLBG members regarding the possible use of an angle Poisson distribution written by GarethP1981. Extensively modified from, but in the spirit of, Gareth's acorn, I am hoping that some lines within the predictions will prove useful. If and when this comes to fruition, an attempt will be made to replicate it in the other divisions.

Following a particular team may be profitable - your own team if impartiality can be maintained. Maybe you can stretch that to a team in each league, but the important factor is to get to know as much as you can about the team, and only then start looking for betting opportunities that may arise.
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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby nors » Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:57 pm

Bookmakers tend to be fairly lazy when it comes to the Season Handicap markets
. Is there much variation between bookies?

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:14 pm

It is not a market that all venture into but there is always a variance between those that do.

Such variance is not initially with the odds as they all start as 15/1 chances apart from Betfair. The differences occur with the handicaps given; even then a team with +20 handicap with one bookie may be better value than the same team with +22 somewhere else. Odds will change due to weight of money before the season and points gained during the season, so it can be a trading opportunity.

It mainly depends on which teams you fancy to be in the shake up, so the only way is to assign your own points expectancy (however you do it - even as an estimate) and add the handicaps from each bookie separately.You may find a different 'winner' with each bookie.
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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby Micko70 » Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:07 pm

A bet will doing more next season is the match result and over 1.5 goals.

Using the Chile v Australia game as a guide, Chile are priced at 1/3 with Paddy Power, the draw is 4/1 and Australia are 17/2.

Yet Paddy Power offer 8/15 for Chile to win and over 1.5 goals in the match.

Just looking at Chelsea at home in the Premier League last season, they played 19 games at home, they won 17 of those games and lost 2, of the 17 wins, only 1 was a 1-0 win, the other 16 saw at least 2 goals in the game

Again using Chile v Australia & Germany v Cameroon, backing Chile & Germany just to win pays around 4/5 for the couble, yet backing them both to win and over 1.5 goals in the match pays slightly over 11/8

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby nors » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:12 am

What percentage of matches finished over 1.5 goals? Is that a stat we know or could at least find out?

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby Micko70 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:37 am

Nors, i will look at that today, draws on the same bet are usually worth a point more too

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:40 am

Over 1.5 goals - last 10 seasons Premier League only.

07/08 279
08/09 266
09/10 289
10/11 301
11/12 299
12/13 284
13/14 278
14/15 272
15/16 278
16/17 294

Over the same period, there have been 663 score draws from 3800 matches (17.45%).
Home fav 460/2659 (17.30%) Away fav 203/1141 (17.79%).

Home wins with more than 1.5 goals.1361 of which 1171 had Home fav and 190 had Away fav.

Away wins with more than 1.5 goals. 816 of which 352 had Home fav and 464 had Away fav.

Under 1.5 goals - same period.

306 0-0 draws with 219 Home favs and 87 Away favs.

389 1-0 with 313 home favs and 76 Away favs.
265 0-1 with 144 Home favs and 121 Away favs.
Last edited by davidg3907 on Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:42 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby Micko70 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:52 am

Cheers David, do you have them split for home wins, away wins, home draws and away draws?

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Re: Your Premier League 2017 -18 Betting Approach

Postby nors » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:23 am

If we arm ourselves with all these stats then even if you choose the wrong selection you at least know you have the stats on your side.

E.G So if a team has not scored over 1 goal in their last 5 matches you can compare that to the overall stats, and then decide at the prices whether a bet is worthwhile making, the more we have in our favour the better.

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