Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

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Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:13 pm

All I ask for anyone joining in is that ALL figures must be a result of calculations, not just 'fancies'.

This way, we can compare how the totals have been attained, which is potentially of more value than just saying I fancy x to get y pts and b to get c points.

Once the season's fixtures are announced and I have had time to produce new spreadsheets, an early task is to 'tissue' all 380 matches, with the spreadsheet awarding points on a pro-rata basis according to the odds.

Obviously, no team can actually get 2.28 pts or 0.47 pts in any match but this should give a representative view of the season. In the process, it does not necessitate having to predict specific results. In total, there are 1140 points to play for, but each draw reduces that total by one, so the overall total tends to be around 1040 rather than 1140. Some adjustments may need to be made should any team suddenly gain or lose several top players, or receive a massive injection of transfer funds.

As I can't see the progress during the entering of odds, the final table will never be influenced by adjustments made on seeing how the table stands as a result of earlier predictions. This is the final table as it stands after the first run.

78.36 Chelsea
77.10 Man City
75.78 Man Utd
74.10 Tottenham
69.78 Arsenal
68.05 Liverpool
59.01 Everton
50.10 Leicester
46.28 Southampton
45.89 Burnley
45.50 West Ham
44.44 Bournemouth
42.96 Stoke
42.78 West Brom
40.75 Swansea
40.03 Newcastle
38.80 Crystal Palace
36.74 Watford
35.54 Brighton
33.29 Huddersfield

At current odds, Chelsea @ 4.50 and Tottenham @ 10.00 appear to be the best early value.

A total of 1045.29 pts means 94.71 draws, well within tolerances as 99 is the average for last 10 years.

From that list, the only entry that seems out of place is Burnley, who are 'relegation fodder' in the eyes of the early markets. The disparity between home and away form last season is largely responsible for this.

My figures also give a prediction of 38 points being boom and 37 being bust at the foot of the table..
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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby Micko70 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:02 pm

There could be some money to be made on the points markets if last season is anything to go by.

8th place = 46 points.
Here are the previous 5 seasons

15/16 = 60pts
14/15 = 56pts
13/14 = 56pts
12/13 = 49pts
11/12 = 52pts

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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:26 pm

I had felt for some time that the 'rich get richer' theory meant that the top teams would take a greater share of the points. Even allowing for the fact that they can only take a constant number of points from their immediate rivals, until last season there had been a steady decline in the aggregate of the top 7 clubs (i.e. above 8th).

What has happened is that more teams sit at the 'beggars table' making the relegation battle reel in more clubs. Since 2002/2003 when West Ham were relegated with 42 pts, only Blackpool and Birmingham ( both with 39 in 2010/11 when the Hammers were bottom on 33) have failed to survive with 38 points, and only Newcastle a couple of seasons later found 37 insufficient. The more teams that become embroiled in a relegation scrap, the more points they will have forced on them as there become more 6-pointers. Failing to take these opportunities is seeing teams get detached from the bunch, and a host of clubs surviving with hauls that would not have sufficed a few seasons ago.

In 2002/2003 Fulham finished 14th with 48 points. Since then, the following totals (in order) to finish 14th have been 45 44 45 42 40 41 39 46 45 41 38 41 43 41. Sadly, there seems little prospect of anything other than a 3 tier Premier League in the near future - unless it becomes a 2 tier league with the haves and have-nots.
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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby Micko70 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:21 pm

The gap slowly getting bigger is 1 of the reasons why i am seriously thinking of having a decent punt on Newcastle to finish top 10.

Apart from Tottenham on the opening day, which is of course winnable, the next 5 games look decent (Huddersfield Away, West Ham Home, Swansea Away, Stoke Home & Brighton Away, if we can get say 10/11/12 points from 6 games then i think we could achieve around the 50 point mark

11/12 = 47
12/13 = 46
13/14 = 49 (Newcastle finished 10th, the season they came back up, but only picked up 7 points from opening 6 games)
14/15 = 48
15/16 = 50
16/17 = 45

The 3/1 with Betfred looks a decent price for me, and if i double it up with Boro to get promted, that's a tasty 14/1 with Betfred

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Postby nors » Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:57 am

Excellent posts David, going deeper into the history and stats will hopefully lead to winning bets.

Burnley may lose their manager which could affect their finishing position, it will certainly be a change of style for Burnley if he does move on.

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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby KanKeano » Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:30 am

This is what my data model has turned in for an early predicted table. This is based solely on current ratings and recent form - it doesn't take into account any strengthening and weakening of sides in the transfer market.

1. Chelsea - 85.45
2. Tottenham - 84.24
3. Arsenal - 75.22
4. Man City - 75.08
5. Liverpool - 74.40
6. Man United - 71.65
7. Everton - 61.60
8. Leicester - 51.35
9. Southampton - 49.63
10. West Ham - 49.37
11. Stoke - 45.83
12. Bournemouth - 43.56
13. Swansea - 41.99
14. Newcastle - 41.82
15. West Brom - 40.32
16. Brighton - 37.19
17. Crystal Palace - 36.99
18. Burnley - 35.24
19. Watford - 30.95
20. Huddersfield - 25.65
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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby KanKeano » Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:54 am

Tale of the promoted sides

Newcastle

My ratings go back to 1994 and of the 72 promoted sides since, Newcastle are my fifth highest rated side. Of the four higher rated sides, three have finished in the top 10 of the Premier League the following season -

1999 Sunderland (787) - 7th
2010 Newcastle (764) - 12th
2006 Reading (738) - 8th
2002 Man City (736) - 9th
2017 Newcastle (732) - ????

If you include last season's Burnley (730) side who finished 16th none have been close to being relegated. Nott'm Forest have the highest rated side to be relegated and they were rated (717).

Huddersfield

Huddersfield (531) are officially the lowest rated side since my ratings began to be promoted - 72nd out of 72 promoted sides. Of the 15 sides to have been rated below 630 on promotion, 10 have been relegated the next season and only 2 finished outside the bottom 5.

1999 Bradford (624) - 17th
1997 Barnsley (617) - 19th
2006 Watford (610) - 20th
2004 Crystal Palace (607) - 18th
2013 Hull (603) - 16th
2007 Derby (603) - 20th
1995 Bolton (601) - 20th
2008 Hull (596) - 17th
2009 Burnley (593) -18th
2010 Blackpool (592) - 19th
1999 Watford (588) - 20th
1996 Leicester (588) - 9th
1994 Leicester (582) - 21st
2013 Crystal Palace (574) - 11th
1995 Reading (573) - 18th
2017 Huddersfield (561) - ????
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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:36 pm

Tale of the promoted sides


Huddersfield

Huddersfield (531) are officially the lowest rated side since my ratings began to be promoted - 72nd out of 72 promoted sides. Of the 15 sides to have been rated below 630 on promotion, 10 have been relegated the next season and only 2 finished outside the bottom 5.
As Huddersfield have never played in the PL, are the ratings taken from (adjusted) Championship performances or estimates of PL results this season :?

I tissue each of the 380 matches before looking at any early odds from bookies. I will even try to ignore the PL winner market.

The first time I tried this, I needed a guide point for betting on similar matches from the previous season, particularly when one or both did not feature the previous season. This tends to be a reasonable starting point although a fair to good team getting promoted is far more difficult to estimate than a moderate to poor team. As a consequence, my judgment that Hull would struggle last season was factored into all their 38 matches and they became detached (similar to Huddersfield this year). Seemingly small changes in odds are compounded over a season. For example, a tissue of 1.73 will give an extra 0.10 pt for the team as opposed to 1.83 and that means 3.80 pts for the season with a balancing adverse effect on the opponents. Similarly, 2.20 to 2.40 is an extra 0.11 pts and therefore 4.18 pts if a team is under or overrated by that amount over the season. For that reason, I do a revised version closer to the start of the season, but one that can be done fairly quickly as manager/squad changes dictate which teams may require a minor adjustment.

Once into the idea, it is more time consuming than difficult.

Below are the comparisons between my tissues and the subsequently displayed Oddschecker figures for the first two rounds of matches.

Arsenal Leicester 1.53 4.40 7.50 1.44 5.25 9.50
Brighton Man City 11.00 5.90 1.33 9.00 5.00 1.42
Chelsea Burnley 1.22 7.50 17.00 1.22 7.00 19.00
Crystal Palace Huddersfield 1.87 3.60 5.00 1.83 3.62 5.25
Everton Stoke 1.60 4.10 7.00 1.76 3.92 5.50
Man Utd West Ham 1.36 5.75 9.50 1.36 5.50 13.00
Newcastle Tottenham 5.50 4.00 1.72 5.00 3.75 1.91
Southampton Swansea 2.65 3.30 3.00 1.83 3.80 5.50 ***
Watford Liverpool 5.75 3.75 1.75 6.25 4.30 1.65
WBA Bournemouth 2.75 3.33 2.85 2.30 3.30 3.60*

Bournemouth Watford 1.66 4.00 6.25 2.00 3.40 3.75 ***
Burnley WBA 1.91 3.45 5.00 2.40 3.25 2.88 ***
Huddersfield Newcastle 2.70 3.24 3.00 2.75 3.30 2.40 *
Leicester Brighton 1.58 4.40 6.60 1.73 3.50 5.80
Liverpool Crystal Palace 1.30 6.00 13.00 1.36 4.80 9.00
Man City Everton 1.70 3.80 6.20 1.44 4.50 7.50 *
Stoke Arsenal 3.65 3.40 2.25 4.33 3.50 1.80 *
Swansea Man Utd 8.50 5.00 1.44 7.00 4.00 1.53
Tottenham Chelsea 2.70 3.22 3.00 2.40 3.25 2.75
West Ham Southampton 2.20 3.42 3.75 4.00 3.40 2.60 ***

*** Big difference * Smaller difference

The above differences would point to West Brom and Southampton being under-rated in my figures, with Bournemouth (and possibly Burnley) slightly over-rated in relation to the general market.

Sporting Index have so far only quoted point spreads for the following 8 teams. I quote the mid-point, so spreads are 0.75 above and below these figures.

Chelsea 78.75 Liverpool 74.75 Arsenal 72.75 Leicester 45.25 Crystal Palace 42.75 Newcastle 42.25 Brighton 36.75 Huddersfield 32.75
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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby KanKeano » Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:54 pm

Tale of the promoted sides


Huddersfield

Huddersfield (531) are officially the lowest rated side since my ratings began to be promoted - 72nd out of 72 promoted sides. Of the 15 sides to have been rated below 630 on promotion, 10 have been relegated the next season and only 2 finished outside the bottom 5.
As Huddersfield have never played in the PL, are the ratings taken from (adjusted) Championship performances or estimates of PL results this season :?

The games that go into the ratings are weighted dependent on level of football and strength of opponent; past performances. The only estimate on future performance is based on their current level.
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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby alexbolt84 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:03 pm

I'm always checking on live results and 777score.com is a great source for that. They have schedule of all upcoming games of Premiere League 2017. :cool:

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Re: Premier League 2017-18. Tissues and handicaps. Join in the fun.

Postby STSSTS » Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:24 pm

It's a bit disappointing that the handicaps are not available for all divisions with all bookmakers at the moment.

I may update my write up for the 2016/2017 season for the upcoming season shortly, but my handicap tissue for the Premiership (done a fortnight ago) was as follows.

Arsenal 8
Bournemouth 38
Brighton 44
Burnley 47
Chelsea 3
C Palace 38
Everton 22
Huddersfield 48
Leicester 32
Liverpool 7
Man City 0
Man Utd 3
Newcastle 39
Southampton 32
Stoke 35
Swansea 42
Tottenham 6
Watford 42
West Brom 40
West Ham 35

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