Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:58 pm

I've had an absolute shocker so far this weekend with my Poisson predictions especially in the EFL championship. I'd advise everyone to look at my tips and back the opposite. I'm just wondering if the busy schedule is catching up with the players and making it more about squad depth and less about form. There's a relentless flow of 2 games per week with the busy league schedules, Caribao Cup, UCL, Europa League and not to mention many squads seeing their players off on international and U21 duties.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:24 pm

They say the world is shrinking, maybe this has caused the distance between goalposts to shrink in sympathy. :D

For whatever reason, the promise of goals in the Premier League's first weekend (31 in 10 matches) did not prepare us for what has followed (91 in 40 matches). This, of course, has had a massive impact on the number of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals results. Some teams have been, and possibly will continue to be, intent on prioritising the goals against column at the expense of the goals for column. Currently, the two Manchester teams have scored more than 38% of all the goals between them. This week alone, they scored 10 of the 21 goals between them. Either it will become the most boring season ever recorded, or things will change.

As the statistics remain so far out of tolerance, it would probably be a mistake to rush into changing any process at this time, so monitoring will continue for a few more weeks.

The results from this week were as follows.

Average Goals top. 0 2 0 4 6
Average Goals bottom - lowest total first. 2 1 3 3 0
Over 2.5 Goals. No No No Yes
Under 2.5 Goals. - lowest % first. No No Yes Yes No Yes
Home teams winning to nil. Yes Draw Draw Won Won Draw
Away teams winning to nil. Yes Draw Won Draw Lost Lost
BTTS Yes. Lost Won Lost
BTTS No. - lowest % first. Lost Lost Won Won Lost Won Won

Analysis.

Average goals. Top 13 predictions = 38 goals. Next 13 = 34. Next 13 = 29. Bottom 11 = 22. That is promising, if not great.

Over 2.5 goals.Top 13 = 6 YES. Next 13 = 7. Next 13 = 5. Bottom 11 = 3. Not so good, but the dearth of goals rears its head again.

Wins to nil. Only the two Manchester clubs won to nil, but they were top rated for Home and Away.

BTTS. Once again, due to the shortage of goals, only 4 matches produced a YES so figures remain fairly constant. However, only 1 of the top 10 ratings overall has proved to be correct so far. Whether this is an inbuilt problem or simply the lack of YES games in general (several of the more likely prospects may then have fallen into this category) is still an ongoing issue to be monitored. Obviously, the NO figures are doing better, so any impact from the probable correction will be felt to some degree here.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:07 pm

Retaining the same format for ease of reference, the top percentages in the various categories this week are listed below. Matches involving Huddersfield, Brighton, and to a lesser extent Newcastle are based on a reduced amount of available data, and then coupled with estimates.

Average Goals top.
3.55 Man City v Crystal Palace 3.26 Arsenal v West Brom 3.05 Leicester v Liverpool 2.74 West Ham v Tottenham 2.59 Swansea v Watford
Average Goals bottom.
2.12 Brighton v Newcastle 2.19 Burnley v Huddersfield 2.37 Stoke v Chelsea 2.43 Southampton v Man Utd 2.54 Everton v Bournemouth
Over 2.5 Goals.
66.73 Man City v Crystal Palace 60.60 Arsenal v West Brom 57.74 Leicester v Liverpool 49.86 West Ham v Tottenham
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)[/color]
35.18 Brighton v Newcastle 36.98 Burnley v Huddersfield 41.50 Stoke v Chelsea 43.10 Southampton v Man Utd
45.11 Everton v Bournemouth 45.31 Swansea v Watford
Home teams winning to nil.
42.50 Man City 42.20 Arsenal 34.25 Everton 32.76 Brighton 22.56 Leicester
Away teams winning to nil.
32.78 Chelsea 32.41 Man Utd 32.24 Tottenham 28.22 Watford 26.72 Huddersfield 15.40 Newcastle
BTTS Yes.
58.86 Leicester 49.71 Man City 47.64 West Ham
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
38.86 Brighton 40.90 Burnley 43.35 Stoke 44.51 Southampton 44.63 Everton 45.76 Swansea 46.55 Arsenal
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:41 am

A better set of returns this week. The results were as follows.

Average Goals top. 5 2 5 5 3
Average Goals bottom - lowest total first.1 0 4 1 3
Over 2.5 Goals. Win Win Lose Win
Under 2.5 Goals. - lowest over % first. Win Win Lose Win Lose Lose
Home teams winning to nil. Yes Yes Won Yes Lost
Away teams winning to nil. Yes Yes Won Won Draw Lost
BTTS Yes. Won Lost Won
BTTS No. - lowest yes % first. Won Won Won Won Lost Lost Won

Analysis will be updated after next round of matches.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:06 am

Retaining the same format for ease of reference, the top percentages in the various categories this week are listed below. Matches involving Huddersfield, Brighton, and to a lesser extent Newcastle are based on a reduced amount of available data, and then coupled with estimates.

Average Goals top.
4.10 Chelsea v Man City 3.27 Man Utd v Crystal Palace 3.05 Newcastle v Liverpool 2.86 Bournemouth v Leicester 2.76 Arsenal v Brighton
Average Goals bottom.
2.00 Stoke v Southampton 2.01 Huddersfield v Tottenham 2.29 West Brom v Watford 2.35 West Ham v Swansea 2.70 Everton v Burnley
Over 2.5 Goals.
70.88 Chelsea v Man City 61.95 Man Utd v Crystal Palace 58.03 Newcastle v Liverpool 53.31 Bournemouth v Leicester 50 20 Arsenal v Brighton
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
32.21 Southampton v Stoke 33.17 Huddersfield v Tottenham 39.43 West Brom v Watford 41.29 West Ham v Swansea 49.74 Everton v Burnley
Home teams winning to nil.
60.91 Arsenal 47.04 Man Utd 29.14 Everton 25.49 West Ham 21.63 Stoke
Away teams winning to nil.
47.82 Tottenham 25.12 Southampton 23.58 Watford 19.87 Liverpool 18.48 Leicester 18.09 Swansea 15.54 Man City
BTTS Yes.
60.53 Chelsea 60.09 Newcastle 55.97 Bournemouth 51.12 Everton
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
23.63 Huddersfield 27.19 Arsenal 39.51 Stoke 44.29 West Brom 44.65 Man Utd 46.52 West Ham
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:28 pm

Week in, week out, we see some kamikaze defending but the dearth of goals continues apace. Just 22 this time around; after 7 rounds of matches, 173 goals is approximately 30 below 'expectations'. Just 4 overs and 3 BTTS this week; is this a new pattern?
Over 2.5 Goals 31/70 (10 year av 36.12).
BTTS YES 23/70 (10 year av 35.64)

I shall not change anything before the end of October other than after the next round of matches use a weighting of 7 for this season rather than 6.5 with another increase to 7.5 or 8.00 at the end of the month.

As the program is currently set up to use 70% of FOR and 30% of AGAINST figures calculated by Poisson, it will be less accurate in a lot of cases where high-scoring sides with good defences meet (e.g. Chelsea's last 2 home games) but compensates when two goal-shy teams meet. There is little effect on the betting markets as the ratings that are in place steer the forecast in the right direction.

The results for round 7 were as follows.

Average Goals top.1 4 2 0 2
Average Goals bottom - lowest total first.3 4 4 1 1
Over 2.5 Goals. Lose Win Lose Lose Lose
Under 2.5 Goals. - lowest over % first. Lose Lose Lose Win Win
Home teams winning to nil. Yes Yes Lost Yes Won
Away teams winning to nil. Yes Lost Draw Draw Draw Lost Yes
BTTS Yes. Lost Won Lost Lost
BTTS No. - lowest yes % first. Won Won Lost Lost Won Won

Analysis.

Average Goals. The 41 matches rated 2.50 or greater have produced 117 goals (av 2.85) The 29 rated lower than 2.50 produced 56 (av 1.93).
Over 2.50 Goals. Only 1 of 7 rated 67% or better produced 3 or more goals, partly as stated above. Of 21 rated 53-67%, 14 were over, of 21 rated 41.49 to 52.99%, 8 were over, and of 21 rated below 41.49%, 8 were over.
Under 2.5 Goals (deduct from 100). All 5 rated below 30% went under 2.5 goals, of 24 rated 30-44%, 14 were under, of 22 rated 44-57%, 10 were under, and of 20 rated above 57%, 10 were under.
Home teams winning to nil. Of 10 rated 38% or higher, 7 won to nil. of 21 rated 28-38%, 7 won to nil, of 20 rated 19-28%, 6 won to nil, and of 19 below 19%, 2 won to nil. Of the bottom 29 (rated below 23%), only 2 won to nil.
Away teams winning to nil. Of 12 rated 30% or higher, 7 won to nil, of 36 rated 12-30%, 9 won to nil, of 22 rated below 12%, no team won to nil (with just one winner at any score).
BTTS Yes. Of 26 rated 50% or better, 9 were YES, of 22 rated 43-50%, 7 were YES, of 22 rated below 43%, 7 were YES
BTTS No (deduct from 100). Of 24 rated below 44%, 17 were NO, of 24 rated 44-51%, 15 were NO, of 22 rated higher than 51%, 15 were NO.

Although the figures are being wrecked by the shortage of goals (31 in the first week didn't prepare me for that), there is some comfort in the fact that the better returns are coming from the top band in most cases, and the worst returns in the lowest band.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby AsongAboutU » Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:20 am

I've barely been on the site for a year or so but after skimming through I look forward to reading this thread thoroughly.
:win:

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:21 pm

Retaining the same format for ease of reference, the top percentages in the various categories this week are listed below. Matches involving Huddersfield, Brighton, and to a lesser extent Newcastle are based on a reduced amount of available data, and then coupled with estimates.

Average Goals top.
3.61 Man City v Stoke 3.21 Liverpool v Man Utd 3.09 Tottenham v Bournemouth 2.63 Watford v Arsenal 2.47 Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Average Goals bottom.
1.84 Southampton v Newcastle 2.00 Swansea v Huddersfield 2.09 Burnley v West Ham 2.13 Brighton v Everton 2.42 Leicester v West Brom
Over 2.5 Goals.
67.02 Man City v Stoke 58.61 Tottenham v Bournemouth 58.37 Liverpool v Man Utd 48.28 Watford v Arsenal 44.29 Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
27.84 Southampton v Newcastle 32.00 Swansea v Huddersfield 34.22 Burnley v West Ham 35.48 Brighton v Everton 43.10 Leicester v West Brom
Home teams winning to nil.
45.94 Man City 45.01 Tottenham 34.85 Leicester 28.57 Brighton 24.62 Burnley
Away teams winning to nil.
47.26 Chelsea 32.59 Huddersfield 30.72 Arsenal 22.57 West Ham 17.83 Everton 17.32 Newcastle 16.13 Man Utd
BTTS Yes.
52.78 Liverpool 49.66 Watford 46.15 Man City 45.25 Tottenham 44.38 Leicester
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
32.46 Southampton 36.64 Swansea 37.26 Crystal Palace 38.30 Burnley 41.25 Brighton
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:28 pm

Retaining the same format for ease of reference, the top percentages in the various categories this week are listed below. Matches involving Huddersfield, Brighton, and to a lesser extent Newcastle are based on a reduced amount of available data, and then coupled with estimates.

28 goals in 10 matches, but the low goals trend is possibly holding good with 9 goals in one match and just 19 goals in the other 9.

Average Goals top. 9 0 1 3 3

Average Goals bottom. 4 2 2 2 2

Over 2.5 Goals. 9 1 0 3 3

Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100) 4 2 2 2 2

Home teams winning to nil. Won Yes Drew Drew Drew

Away teams winning to nil. Lost Lost Lost Drew Drew Drew Drew

BTTS Yes. No Yes Yes No Yes

BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100) Yes No Yes Yes Yes
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:47 pm

Retaining the same format for ease of reference, the top percentages in the various categories this week are listed below. Matches involving Huddersfield, Brighton, and to a lesser extent Newcastle are based on a reduced amount of available data, and then coupled with estimates.

Average Goals top.
3.88 Man City 3.54 Chelsea 3.38 Tottenham 3.09 Everton 2.72 Newcastle
Average Goals bottom.
1.82 West Ham 2.00 Southampton 2.00 Huddersfield 2.33 Swansea 2.43 Stoke
Over 2.5 Goals.
70.64 Man City 66.70 Chelsea 63.20 Tottenham 57.10 Everton 49.03 Newcastle
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
27.49 West Ham31.92 Huddersfield 32.14 Southampton 40.32 Swansea 41.71 Stoke
Home teams winning to nil.
45.02 West Ham 41.38 Man City 33.84 Chelsea 29.67 Tottenham 27.80 Newcastle 27.71 Stoke
Away teams winning to nil.
53.90 Man Utd 26.08 Leicester 20.48 West Brom 17.69 Bournemouth 16.56 Arsenal 14.48 Crystal Palace
BTTS Yes.
59.48 Everton 57.04 Tottenham 56.63 Chelsea 50.68 Man City 49.61 Newcastle
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
25.70 Huddersfield 26.27 West Ham 38.75 Southampton 43.27 Stoke 44.64 Swansea
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:14 pm

Retaining the same format for ease of reference, the top percentages in the various categories this week are listed below. Matches involving Huddersfield, Brighton, and to a lesser extent Newcastle are based on a reduced amount of available data, and then coupled with estimates.

Average Goals top. 3 6 5 7 1
Average Goals bottom.3 1 3 3 3
Over 2.5 Goals. 3 6 5 7 1
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100) 3 3 1 3 3
Home teams winning to nil. Lost Yes Won Won Yes Lost
Away teams winning to nil. Lost Won Lost Won Won Lost
BTTS Yes.Won Won Won Lost Lost
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100) Lost Won Won Lost Lost

Just the 35 goals this week. The average goals per match now stands at 2.62, still some way below early expectations.

Overall, the Win to Nil figures have survived the fluctuations in goals better than the other figures, but a full update will be given after Round 11 (week off follows) when there will be 110 results from which to elicit data.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:18 pm

Retaining the same format for ease of reference, the top percentages in the various categories this week are listed below. Matches involving Huddersfield, Brighton, and to a lesser extent Newcastle are based on a reduced amount of available data, and then coupled with estimates.

Average Goals top.
3.66 Man Utd 3.10 Arsenal 2.97 Liverpool 2.97 Bournemouth 2.66 West Brom
Average Goals bottom.
1.87 Burnley 1.99 Brighton 2.47 Crystal Palace 2.58 Watford 2.63 Leicester
Over 2.5 Goals.
64.25 Man Utd 57.77 Arsenal 56.12 Bournemouth 55.71 Liverpol 48.35 Leicester
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
28.68 Burnley 31.85 Brighton 43.46 Crystal Palace 45.48 Watford 48.24 West Brom
Home teams winning to nil.
43.02 Arsenal 37.36 Liverpool 30.55 Burnley 30.18 Leicester 24.14 Brighton 23.82 Man Utd 21.58 Watford
Away teams winning to nil.
37.56 Man City 32.12 Chelsea 29.08 West Ham 22.57 Southampton 21.22 Stoke 18.76 Newcastle
BTTS Yes.
53.34 Bournemouth 50.77 Man Utd 50.18 Leicester 49.35 Liverpool 47.58 Watford
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
33.68 Burnley 39.48 Brighton 43.97 West Brom 45.18 Arsenal 45.38 Crystal Palace
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