Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:14 pm

After the glut of goals (31) in the first week, the next 2 sets of results more than compensated (just 42 in all). Average goals so far at 2.43 is way below the range of tolerance.

Conclusions from the third week of data.

Average goals – top 6 Home teams.
4.02 Liverpool (4)
3.56 Chelsea (2)
3.24 Man Utd (2)
3.21 Tottenham (2)
3.02 Bournemouth (3)
2.79 Newcastle (3)

The other 4 matches produced only 4 goals in total.

Others 2.15 (2) 2.02 (2) 1.59 (0) 1.30 (0)

Over 2.5 goals – top 6 Home teams
72.88 Liverpool (4)
65.67 Chelsea (2)
61.12 Tottenham (2)
60.91 Man Utd (2)
57.12 Bournemouth (3)
51.76 Newcastle (3)

Under 2.5 goals – top 4 Home teams
15.09 Huddersfield (0)
21.72 Watford (0)
32.49 West Brom (2))
35.76 Crystal Palace (2)

Others

Win to nil – top 7
41.43 Tottenham (D)
39.64 Man Utd (W-0)
38.11 Chelsea (W-0)
36.79 Watford (D)
33.14 Man City (W)
32.00 Southampton (D)
30.38 Swansea (W-0)
28.89 Liverpool (W-0)

Roughly translated, that means of the 7 matches with one team having a win to nil expectancy of 30% or greater, and Liverpool who were slightly below that but the odds would have more than compensated, 4 won to nil, 1 won BTTS, and 3 drew.

That is quite heartening, as this was my prediction for the set of figures most likely to be of benefit going forward. It has now produced the goods every week.

BTTS outcome

64.04 Liverpool NO
54.87 Newcastle NO
53.24 Bournemouth YES
51.46 Chelsea NO
49.69 Man Utd NO
49.08 Tottenham YES
39.17 Crystal Palace NO
38.54 West Brom YES
24.98 Watford NO
20.03 Huddersfield NO

Only 3 BTTS YES again, leaving a well below expectation total of 11/30.

All 3 sets of results (inc amended Southampton v West Ham) will be analysed over the next week or so, and findings published in a brief synopsis.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:14 am

I've barely been on the site for a year or so but after skimming through I look forward to reading this thread thoroughly.

I've been using an average goal Poisson spreadsheet which I've copied and tinkered with for a few years now. Generally speaking I split home and away, take an average of the whole season, last 8 and last 4 matches. Although at the moment I'm using whole of last season with two thirds weighting and the few games so far this season with one third weighting because it's so early in the season. Also because it's early in the season I'll only look at matches between teams who were in the same division last season. I will sometimes fiddle with the figures slightly. For example if a team had lost to Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea in 3 of their last 4 fixtures then it would most likely make the last 4 game stats misrepresentative of how good they are. The same goes the opposite way if they've played 3 relegation candidates in their last 4 games
I generally look for value in home/away/draw, over/under goals, btts or not and win-0. Usually I stick to events that have 40%-60% likelihood of happening so I don't tend to bother with exact scores. Although I'm always tempted by underdogs playing the top teams in the EPL because the bookies skew the odds a bit in their favour to reduce their losses caused by the masses backing the favourites in the accas.

After all that I'll look at all the bets that offer decent value according to the spreadsheet, look at team news, recent encounters, how recently each team have played and just follow my gut about whether to go for it.

A common pattern is for me to slowly and steadily build a profit and then have a bad weekend and end up back where I started but ain't that nearly always the gambler's way :D Often I've made the mistake of betting during busy periods of the fixture list eg Christmas when form can go out the window and squad size becomes more important.

I was interested to note like you guys on this thread that the Poisson method seems to underestimate the likelihood of a draw.

So today I've gone for the following in the Conference:
Bromley to win at home to Sutton at odds of 2.55 with an estimated 62% likelihood;
Eastleigh v Aldershot to be under 1.5 goals at 3.4 (43%);
Easleigh v Aldershot, no to BTTS at 2.2 (62%);
Maidstone v Dagenham, away win at 2.375 (57%);
Solihull v Tranmere, under 2.5 at 2.05 (59%);
Solihull v Tranmer, no to BTTS at 2.1 (57%);
Woking v Torquay, home win at at 2.45 (59%).

Another thing I'm reminded of from looking at my selections is that I usually find more value in unders and no to BTTS compared to overs and yes to BTTS.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:21 pm

I've barely been on the site for a year or so but after skimming through I look forward to reading this thread thoroughly.

I've been using an average goal Poisson spreadsheet which I've copied and tinkered with for a few years now. Generally speaking I split home and away, take an average of the whole season, last 8 and last 4 matches. Although at the moment I'm using whole of last season with two thirds weighting and the few games so far this season with one third weighting because it's so early in the season. Also because it's early in the season I'll only look at matches between teams who were in the same division last season. I will sometimes fiddle with the figures slightly. For example if a team had lost to Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea in 3 of their last 4 fixtures then it would most likely make the last 4 game stats misrepresentative of how good they are. The same goes the opposite way if they've played 3 relegation candidates in their last 4 games
I generally look for value in home/away/draw, over/under goals, btts or not and win-0. Usually I stick to events that have 40%-60% likelihood of happening so I don't tend to bother with exact scores. Although I'm always tempted by underdogs playing the top teams in the EPL because the bookies skew the odds a bit in their favour to reduce their losses caused by the masses backing the favourites in the accas.

After all that I'll look at all the bets that offer decent value according to the spreadsheet, look at team news, recent encounters, how recently each team have played and just follow my gut about whether to go for it.

A common pattern is for me to slowly and steadily build a profit and then have a bad weekend and end up back where I started but ain't that nearly always the gambler's way :D Often I've made the mistake of betting during busy periods of the fixture list eg Christmas when form can go out the window and squad size becomes more important.

I was interested to note like you guys on this thread that the Poisson method seems to underestimate the likelihood of a draw.

So today I've gone for the following in the Conference:
Bromley to win at home to Sutton at odds of 2.55 with an estimated 62% likelihood;
Eastleigh v Aldershot to be under 1.5 goals at 3.4 (43%);
Easleigh v Aldershot, no to BTTS at 2.2 (62%);
Maidstone v Dagenham, away win at 2.375 (57%);
Solihull v Tranmere, under 2.5 at 2.05 (59%);
Solihull v Tranmer, no to BTTS at 2.1 (57%);
Woking v Torquay, home win at at 2.45 (59%).

Another thing I'm reminded of from looking at my selections is that I usually find more value in unders and no to BTTS compared to overs and yes to BTTS.
Good set of results here! Feel free to share anymore you have.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:57 pm


Good set of results here! Feel free to share anymore you have.
Will do Chris. I'll also post my spreadsheet template this weekend when I've made it a bit more user friendly. I use linux instead of windows so it's on gnumeric which is an obscure linux equivalent of excel. I'm redoing it in Google Sheets so it should then be accessible to everyone. Also at the moment it's a bloody mess to look at and input data. It's just sort of evolved that way as I've added bits to it.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby wonderwall » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:07 pm

Good set of results here! Feel free to share anymore you have.
Yes that really was a return, think you've come the closest to smashing that Poission Grail than anything else I've seen published here:

Image

Really like that 3.4, very good going.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:39 pm

My Poisson predictions for this week:

Bradford v Bristol Rovers, home win at odds of 2.25 with a 55% likelihood;
Bury v Scunthorpe, away win, 2.625, 56%;
Bury v Scunthorpe, over 2.5, 1.909, 68%;
MK Dons v Oxford, away win, 3.3, 60%;
Oldham v Charlton, less than 2.5, 1.667, 75%;
Oldham v Charlton, no to btts, 1.9, 68%;
Southend v Rochdale, home win, 2.1, 60%;
Crawley v Yeovil, over 2.5, 1.833, 67%;
Cambridge v Colchester, under 2.5, 1.9, 63%;
Cambridge v Colchester, no to btts, 2.1, 58%;
Cheltenham v Stevenage, no to btts, 2.2, 56%;
Cheltenham v Stevenage, under 2.5, 1.909, 63%.

These are purely based on the spreadsheet so I haven't looked at any team news, previous encounters, etc.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:08 pm

Right, here is the link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... utput=xlsx

It should download as a .xlsx file which should open in Microsoft Excel. I haven't got excel but it opens just fine in Libre Office.

I get all my info from soccerstats.com. I'll run through Fulham v Cardiff next Saturday as an example.

-Go on http://www.soccerstats.com/
-Click e2 near the top of the screen to select championship
-Select 2016/17 from the dropdown box to get last season
-Click on Fulham on the league table
-Scroll down to "Fulham performance against league average"
-Click on the home tab
-We can see that the league average for goals scored is 1.5 for the home teams and 1.11 for the away teams so input 1.5 and 1.11 in squares B1 and B2
-We can see that Fulham scored on average 1.96 goals per game and conceded 1.39 so input 1.96 and 1.39 into B4 and B5 on the spreadsheet.
-For this seasons form click on 2017/18 from the dropdown box and click on Fulham.
-Again scroll down to "Fulham performance against league average" and click the home tab.
-So far at home this season Fulham have on average scored 0.5 per game and concede 1 so input 0.5 and 1 into squares B9 and B10. NOTE: I'm leaving squares B1 and B2 to last season's averages

I want to give more emphasis to Fulham's form last season because it's so early in the season so I'll change G15 to 4 and leave H15 as 1. This means that last season has 4 times as much weight as this season. You can put any combination of numbers in these 2 boxes. The spreadsheet will just work it out as a ratio between the 2 numbers.

Now repeat all this for Cardiff but click the away tab instead of the home tab where applicable.

This will generate home/away attack/defence ratings. NOTE: a high defence rating means that the team is more likely to concede. From this the spreadsheet works out he home and away goal coefficients. These are used by the Poisson formula to calculate the likelihood of specific number of goals scored by home shown in column G of the score grid to the top right of the spreadsheet and away teams in row 2 of the score grid. Each specific score is worked out by multiplying the corresponding likelihoods together. So the likelihood of 2-1 to Fulham is worked out in I5 by multiplying G5 with I2.
The likelihood of each event is worked out by adding the likelihoods of the relevant individual scores together. For example for under 2.5 goals the spreadsheet adds the likelihoods of 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2 together. The likelihood of a home win is worked out by adding the likelihoods of all the home winning scores together.

Finally put the odds (IN DECIMAL FORMAT) into the column starting at C28. This will generate a corresponding value score in the D column. For value we're looking at a value score greater than 1. I've set the value scores to turn green for anything over 1.05. Personally I look for value over 1.2.

After all this maths I'll look at team news, previous encounters, etc for any game the spreadsheet offers value bets for.

I'll keep updating the spreadsheet and reposting the link to include more bets such as correct score. Although I'm a bit wary of how accurate the likelihood of a correct score can be with such low probabilities.

Finally a disclaimer. Please keep in mind that the nearest thing to me being qualified at this sort of thing is that I did a science degree 20 years ago so got familiar with spreadsheets, watched alot of football and betted on alot of football. I drive a van for a living and there's a very good reason for that.

Good luck!

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:31 am

My Poisson predictions for this week:

Bradford v Bristol Rovers, home win at odds of 2.25 with a 55% likelihood;
Bury v Scunthorpe, away win, 2.625, 56%;
Bury v Scunthorpe, over 2.5, 1.909, 68%;
MK Dons v Oxford, away win, 3.3, 60%;
Oldham v Charlton, less than 2.5, 1.667, 75%;
Oldham v Charlton, no to btts, 1.9, 68%;
Southend v Rochdale, home win, 2.1, 60%;
Crawley v Yeovil, over 2.5, 1.833, 67%;
Cambridge v Colchester, under 2.5, 1.9, 63%;
Cambridge v Colchester, no to btts, 2.1, 58%;
Cheltenham v Stevenage, no to btts, 2.2, 56%;
Cheltenham v Stevenage, under 2.5, 1.909, 63%.

These are purely based on the spreadsheet so I haven't looked at any team news, previous encounters, etc.
I think that lot returned 98p profit for £1 single stakes. Didn't see the 4-3 Charlton score coming lol

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:32 am

Massively appreciate all of this Cairod! Keep at it mate as I'm certainly interested in this and I've used this for bets recently. :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>:

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:11 am

Will do Chris. When I get time I'm going to have a crack at one based on shots on target as mentioned by Inquisitorium earlier in the thread.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby cairod » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:27 am

This weekend's EPL and Championship Poisson predictions:

Man City v Liverpool, away win at 4.1, 32% likelihood;
Southampton v Watford, away win or draw at 2.25, 56%;
Stoke v Man Utd, no to BTTS at 1.9, 64%;
Fulham v Cardiff, away win at 3.6, 43%;
Leeds v Burton, less than 2.5 goals at 1.83, 75%;
Leeds v Burton, no to BTTS at 1.83, 75%;
Norwich v Birmingham, home win at 1.87, 69%;
QPR v Ipswich, away win at 3.8, 34%;
Reading v Bristol, homewin at 2.45, 61%

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:55 pm

This weekend's EPL and Championship Poisson predictions:

Man City v Liverpool, away win at 4.1, 32% likelihood;
Southampton v Watford, away win or draw at 2.25, 56%;
Stoke v Man Utd, no to BTTS at 1.9, 64%;
Fulham v Cardiff, away win at 3.6, 43%;
Leeds v Burton, less than 2.5 goals at 1.83, 75%;
Leeds v Burton, no to BTTS at 1.83, 75%;
Norwich v Birmingham, home win at 1.87, 69%;
QPR v Ipswich, away win at 3.8, 34%;
Reading v Bristol, homewin at 2.45, 61%
Thanks! I'd imagine a Leeds to win and under 2.5 goals, Norwich and Reading treble would be a lovely price. How would you and the readers play this in bets?

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