Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:17 am

This is an attempt to get as much data as possible in a compact format while retaining legibility. The data is colour coded to make navigation easier.

A few explanations.

Huddersfield's figures are based on assumptions as there is no PL form to go on at this time. Home and Away goals will not match the total in all cases as these are rounded in the spreadsheet.
Full correct score % breakdowns are available, but the score shown is only the 'most likely' in the system's view and is not intended to infer value as the % is not shown.
Average goals have now been adjusted to represent a similar level to last season. The H/A split is still close to expectation.

Teams Highest % scoreline Over 1.5 2.5 3.5 goals BTTS%

Odds HDA Av goals total H goals A goals H to nil A to nil

August 12th

Arsenal v Leicester 2-0 81.11 60.13 38.64 52.91
1.53 5.28 6.33 3.19 2.23 0.96 36.02 7.01
Brighton v Man City 0-1 74.25 50.29 28.96 50.44
4.40 4.18 1.88 2.73 1.00 1.73 12.32 29.93
Chelsea v Burnley 2-0 88.02 71.22 50.81 46.75
1.20 9.10 17.90 3.77 3.09 0.68 48.05 2.56
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield 0-0 62.55 40.36 24.18 38.00
2.07 3.72 4.02 2.42 1.55 0.87 31.28 16.85
Everton v Stoke 1-0 76.08 51.83 29.59 51.43
1.75 4.33 5.06 2.77 1.82 0.96 32.05 10.18
Manch Utd v West Ham 1-0 78.42 56.49 35.22 52.47
1.80 4.66 4.37 3.02 1.89 1.13 32.02 9.63
Newcastle v Tottenham 0-1 76.91 53.66 31.90 51.48
4.71 4.48 1.77 2.87 1.03 1.84 9.92 32.26
Southampton v Swansea 1-1 68.19 42.63 22.46 46.83
2.28 3.68 3.45 2.42 1.38 1.03 25.90 17.56
Watford v Liverpool 0-1 71.85 46.44 25.03 49.24
4.08 3.92 2.00 2.55 1.00 1.55 13.45 29.30
West Brom v Bournemouth 1-1 70.74 46.67 26.81 49.17
2.39 3.86 3.10 2.62 1.46 1.16 22.51 19.43

Average goals 2.836 Home 16.45 Away 11.91 H/A% 58.00/42.00

August 19th

Bournemouth v Watford 1-1 77.64 55.52 34.61 54.86
2.02 4.35 3.62 3.01 1.76 1.24 26.08 12.92
Burnley v West Brom 1-0 56.94 30.05 12.89 36.75
2.30 3.29 3.83 1.97 1.16 0.81 30.48 17.91
Huddersfield v Newcastle 0-0 58.20 34.92 18.85 36.01
2.73 3.38 2.96 2.14 1.13 1.01 24.25 23.75
Leicester v Brighton 1-0 69.98 43.96 22.84 43.18
1.68 4.18 6.05 2.45 1.70 0.76 38.30 9.81
Liverpool v Crystal Palace 2-1 86.73 68.65 47.40 60.71
1.52 5.61 6.17 3.60 2.47 1.13 30.44 5.89
Manch City v Everton 2-0 82.67 63.40 42.91 53.74
1.49 5.57 6.63 3.40 2.42 0.97 34.73 7.00
Stoke v Arsenal 1-1 77.62 55.35 34.09 53.32
4.62 4.48 1.78 2.97 1.05 1.92 11.26 29.25
Swansea v Manch Utd 0-1 65.75 39.07 19.06 43.27
4.31 3.65 2.03 2.26 0.86 1.40 14.27 31.93
Tottenham v Chelsea 1-0 79.53 62.17 44.29 52.63
1.82 5.08 3.94 3.46 2.19 1.27 27.07 13.41
West Ham v Southampton 1-1 67.62 41.17 20.64 47.26
3.06 3.56 2.55 2.34 1.10 1.24 19.44 23.59

Average goals 2.755 Home 15.81 Away 11.73 H/A% 57.41/42.59

Which figures would I place most reliance on?

Correct score. Although it remains a possible objective in the future, the chance of a prototype hitting the jackpot is fairly remote. If I come up with more than 15%, then I shall take this more seriously.
BTTS. I would expect this to highlight many games where YES is the outcomee; possibly less so with NO outcomes.
Result. In the main, a spreadsheet is not required to select the favorite in most matches. Certain angles may produce something.
Over x goals. This is expected to prove viable with all but the middle of the road selections.
Total goals. This has, to date, proved very reliable at both ends of the weekly spectrum. Finding a working figure in the middle is all that is required. The H/A split is only shown to ensure it remains within tolerance.
Win to nil. Used in conjunction with the most popular score, a very good strike rate (even if not at great odds) is very likely when used in the 1X2 market.

Almost on a week by week basis, some data is likely to prove less helpful than hoped. It can then be removed from the main set of criteria.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby makkad » Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:13 pm

Here's a link to Poisson analysis for next weekend championship matches. There are several modifications to my analysis process from last season, although my output tables are only slightly different.

My modified analyis looks at a team's last 5, 10 and 15 matches (*see note below) with each period having a weighting factor. That is to say that a score/result 15 homes matches ago in the past may not be as relevant as a match played in the last 5 home games, and therefore has a weighting factor to reflect this.

Beware of the relegated/promoted teams as the goal attacking/defensive strengths rely on their last matches in a higher/lower division.

Above the Poisson distribution table I have added the home and away strengths AND the difference between the two figures. It's worth noting that a higher positive difference indicates a higher chance of a home win and similarly with a high negative difference. I will chart this analysis after gathering a few weeks worth of data.

Here's a link to the file for the forthcoming Championship matches - user can input bookie odds in order to identify Value bets

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9MTc ... jdOc1lKSWM

* last 5, 10, 15 HOME MATCHES for the home team, and last 5, 10, 15 AWAY MATCHES for the away team - makkad
Last edited by makkad on Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby makkad » Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:37 pm

Here's a link to a file which lists all 'near future' matches in the Premiership, Championship, Primera, Bundesliga (so far, will add more leagues soon)

It's a one-line summary of the Poisson analyses output for each match and can be sorted on any field you wish to find the highest percentage likely outcome say over 2.5, Double Chance Home etc.

All sorted in date order

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9MTc ... G1wbGw4TUU

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:39 am

Although historic records could be used to some extent for Newcastle, those for Brighton and Huddersfield were calculated from estimates.

All figures were recalculated to a slightly lower goal expectancy. The modifications show a drop of about 0.05 to 0.06 goals per match. To avoid updating the predictions after posting, I decided the change was negligible enough to leave them as they were. The changes will apply to week 3 onwards.

There are 31 goals this week, with more away goals than home goals. That is way out of line with normal, so are unlikely to be representative of a standard set of results.

Conclusions from the first week of data.

Average goals – top 6 Home teams.
3.77 Chelsea (5)
3.19 Arsenal (7)
3.02 Man Utd (4)
2.87 Newcastle (2)
2.77 Everton (1)
2.73 Brighton (2)

Others 2.62 (1) 2.55 (6) 2.42 (3) 2.42 (2)

Over 2.5 goals – top 3 Home teams
70.05 Chelsea (5)
58.86 Arsenal (7)
55.24 Man Utd (4)

Under 2.5 goals – top 4 Home teams
39.19 Crystal Palace (3)
41.21 Southampton (0)
44.97 Watford (6)
45.28 West Brom (1)

Others 52.32 (2) 50.38 (1) 48.95 (2)

Win to nil – top 7
48.91 Chelsea (L)
36.67 Arsenal (W)
32.75 Everton (W-0)
32.68 Tottenham (W-0)
32.51 Man Utd (W-0)
31.74 Crystal Palace (L)
30.28 Man City (W-0)

Roughly translated, that means of the 7 matches with one team having a win to nil expectancy of 30% or greater, 4 won to nil, 1 other won, and 2 lost.

That is quite heartening, as this was my prediction for the set of figures most likely to be of benefit going forward.

BTTS outcome
51.32 was the highest figure so perhaps not surprising there were few YES, but it was the NO forecasts that fared better.

51.32 Man Utd NO
50.88 Arsenal YES
50.33 Newcastle NO
50.07 Everton NO
49.19 Brighton NO
47.96 Watford YES
47.93 West Brom NO
45.54 Chelsea YES
45.54 Southampton NO
36.96 Crystal Palace NO
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:56 am

I'd love to follow/understand this in much more detail. Has anyone been tipping football bets via this system on here recently? Also, are there any tips via this sytem for tonight's games?

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:59 am

Here's a link to Poisson analysis for next weekend championship matches. There are several modifications to my analysis process from last season, although my output tables are only slightly different.

My modified analyis looks at a team's last 5, 10 and 15 matches (*see note below) with each period having a weighting factor. That is to say that a score/result 15 homes matches ago in the past may not be as relevant as a match played in the last 5 home games, and therefore has a weighting factor to reflect this.

Beware of the relegated/promoted teams as the goal attacking/defensive strengths rely on their last matches in a higher/lower division.

Above the Poisson distribution table I have added the home and away strengths AND the difference between the two figures. It's worth noting that a higher positive difference indicates a higher chance of a home win and similarly with a high negative difference. I will chart this analysis after gathering a few weeks worth of data.

Here's a link to the file for the forthcoming Championship matches - user can input bookie odds in order to identify Value bets

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9MTc ... jdOc1lKSWM

* last 5, 10, 15 HOME MATCHES for the home team, and last 5, 10, 15 AWAY MATCHES for the away team - makkad
Anyone able to give a brief summary of the Sheff Utd vs Brentford game via this spreadsheet. I am a Brentford fan and I'm keen just to try and understand the table in greater detail.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:49 pm

Chris,

At this stage, it is very much in development mode. For anyone following the progress, any suggestions for amendments etc would be appreciated whlie I see in which direction the ship wants to sail before I embark on a long journey.

For this season, it certainly won't extend beyond the Premier League.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:33 am

Chris,

At this stage, it is very much in development mode. For anyone following the progress, any suggestions for amendments etc would be appreciated whlie I see in which direction the ship wants to sail before I embark on a long journey.

For this season, it certainly won't extend beyond the Premier League.
Okay, thanks for letting me know. Just out of interest, will you be tipping selections via this method on here, because if so, I'll give you a follow.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:44 am

Chris,

For the first few weeks, no. just data.

If I find that the formula is working satisfactorily, things will definitely change.

Keep an eye on developments, or pop back in a few weeks.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:21 am

Chris,

For the first few weeks, no. just data.

If I find that the formula is working satisfactorily, things will definitely change.

Keep an eye on developments, or pop back in a few weeks.
Cheers David :hope:

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:30 pm

After the glut of goals in the first week, this set of results more than compensated. Only 2 of the 9 produced more than 2 goals, and only 2 saw BTTS.

As the venue for West Ham v Southampton was switched after I had done the post, and I prefer not to amend posts once some may have seen them, the best I can do is ignore this match as it would be based on incorrect data, but again the total goals calculation will again be down by about 0.05 or 0.06 goals per match.

Conclusions from the second week of data.

Average goals – top 6 Home teams.
3.54 Liverpool (1)
3.41 Tottenham (3)
3.34 Man City (2)
2.94 Bournemouth (2)
2.91 Stoke (1)
2.40 Leicester (2)

Others 2.21 (4) 2.09 (1) 1.88 (1)

Over 2.5 goals – top 3 Home teams
67.36 Liverpool (1)
62.18 Man City (2)
61.24 Tottenham (3)

Under 2.5 goals – top 4 Home teams
28.83 Burnley (1)
33.65 Huddersfield (1)
37.71 Swansea (4)
42.57 Leicester (2)

Others 53.99 (1) 54.12 (2)

Win to nil – top 5
38.89 Leicester (W-0)
35.44 Man City (D)
32.15 Man Utd (W-0)
31.25 Liverpool (W-0)
30.85 Burnley (L)

Roughly translated, that means of the 5 matches with one team having a win to nil expectancy of 30% or greater, 3 won to nil, 1 drew, and 1 lost.

That is quite heartening, as this was my prediction for the set of figures most likely to be of benefit going forward. It has now produced the goods both weeks.

BTTS outcome
Both YES in the top 5, but it was the NO forecasts that again fared better.

59.43 Liverpool NO
53.64 Bournemouth NO
52.46 Man City YES
52.08 Stoke NO
51.56 Tottenham YES
42.04 Swansea NO
41.89 Leicester NO
35.54 Burnley NO
34.98 Huddersfield NO


With 31 goals in 10 matches last week and just 17 in 9 matches this week, it seems we will need to wait a bit longer for anything like consistent results.

Next weeks matches will be posted tomorrow.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:09 pm

This is an attempt to get as much data as possible in a compact format while retaining legibility. The data is colour coded to make navigation easier.

A few explanations.

Teams Highest % scoreline Over 1.5 2.5 3.5 goals BTTS%

Odds HDA Av goals total H goals A goals H to nil A to nil

August 26th

Bournemouth v Man City 0-1 77.83 54.61 32.48 49.54
6.29 4.85 1.57 2.91 0.88 2.02 7.81 36.84
Chelsea v Everton 2-1 84.49 67.39 48.51 56.35
1.46 5.95 6.74 3.68 2.66 1.02 32.27 7.24
Crystal Palace v Swansea 0-0 56.78 32.29 16.04 35.46
3.35 3.28 2.52 2.02 0.90 1.12 20.86 27.50
Huddersfield v Southampton 0-0 48.98 23.28 9.02 30.79
3.50 2.91 2.70 1.66 0.76 0.90 21.24 28.38
Newcastle v West Ham 1-1 76.14 53.10 31.92 54.81
2.99 4.09 2.37 2.87 1.35 1.53 16.25 22.32
Watford v Brighton 1-0 67.46 43.03 23.83 42.89
1.99 3.93 4.10 2.46 1.50 0.96 33.00 13.63
Man Utd v Leicester 2-0 87.15 70.55 50.93 57.06
1.49 6.20 5.89 3.81 2.61 1.20 34.92 4.97
West Brom v Stoke 1-0 55.45 29.24 12.77 34.88
2.27 3.20 4.04 1.89 1.14 0.75 31.45 17.70
Liverpool v Arsenal 1-1 84.65 65.89 46.11 61.59
1.75 5.11 4.31 3.65 2.32 1.33 27.78 7.33
Tottenham v Burnley 2-0 86.60 68.73 47.83 59.81
1.53 5.68 5.88 3.63 2.47 1.17 31.32 5.82


Average goals 2.858 Home 16.58 Away 12.00 H/A% 58.00/42.00


Following this round of matches, I shall do a full analysis of the 30 matches so far. I have done revised figures for the Southampton v West Ham match as nothing had been updated at the time, so that match will be included.

While working out the best options as more data from the spreadsheets and matches becomes available, after the International break, the previews will show just selected highlights - mainly from the parts of the program working best.
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