Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

davidg3907
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri May 11, 2018 11:34 am

Well, the last round of fixtures is upon us. Very few of the matches have a bearing on more than pride and a few quid of prize money for places so caution is more than ever advised.
This has been a massive learning process inasmuch as when I set out on the adventure, I had only vague ideas which parts would work best. Altering the framework for next season may be courting programming disasters so I intend to leave the basic format as it is but concentrate on the parts that work better than the rest.
With numbers already crunched from several angles, more will be investigated in the next few weeks and findings posted. If you have specific queries, I may be able to incorporate them if not already on file.
After modifications made during the early part of the season, performance improved significantly in some areas. How much of that was due to those amendments, and how much to the addition of the current season's data may only become clearer after a few weeks of next season.

This thread has had sufficient views to make the exercise worthwhile, but I can only offer more of the content that you want if I know what it is. Please don't be shy as all comments on here, or by PM, will be read and (wherever possible) replied to.

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wonderwall
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby wonderwall » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:52 pm

It's definitely been a solid commitment for you to produce this information, its quite a feat. Well done!

I'm struggling to find a practical use for it, because there can be an unexpected penalty, shot hits the post, close offside, etc so in practical terms, goals can be random.

I think the closest match is to monitor games and if they are 0-0 at half-time, and the model says it should be +2.5, and nothing unusual has happened in the match so far, no red cards etc, then you can back the +2.5 now as it should, theroetically represent value. If you are using an Exchange, you can cash out when a goal goes in, if its before 75th minute and you probably have won something. If you are on a book-maker, don't cash out, you lose too much value.

There are themes on the above, maybe the tool can guide you into potential high/low scoring matches, but maybe the opening match odds do the same thing, or they can give you a flavour what the market thinks and you can marry that up with the tool, looking for value ?

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