Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

davidg3907
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:07 pm

Just 22 goals at the weekend, but 6 BTTS YES and 4 Over 2.5 goals.

Average Goals top.
3.60 Man City 3.02 Arsenal 2.99 Chelsea 2.97 Everton 2.84 Stoke
Average Goals bottom.
2.21 Watford 2.27 West Brom 2.57 Bournemouth 2.67 Brighton 2.69 Leicester
Over 2.5 Goals.
64.33 Man City 57.37 Arsenal 57.00 Everton 56.04 Chelsea 53.64 Stoke
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
37.84 Watford 38.92 West Brom 47.21 Bournemouth 48.11 Brighton 49.31 Leicester
Home teams winning to nil.
57.57 Arsenal 42.81 Chelsea 42.05 Man City 34.56 Brighton 30.04 West Brom 26.26 Bournemouth 24.68 Everton 15.96 Stoke 15.31 Leicester 14.52 Watford
Away teams winning to nil.
32.33 Man Utd 28.11 Tottenham 21.68 Liverpool 16.01 Newcastle 14.78 Burnley 11.73 West Ham 10.78 Crystal Palace 6.55 Southampton 6.39 Swansea 2.97 Huddersfield
BTTS Yes.
58.65 Everton 56.21 Stoke 51.40 Bournemouth 47.54 Leicester 46.68 Brighton
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
34.49 Arsenal 41.96 Watford 42.69 West Brom 44.68 Chelsea 45.33 Man City
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:45 pm

Average Goals top.
3 5 1 4 3
Average Goals bottom.
6 4 3 0 3
Over 2.5 Goals.
3 5 4 1 3
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
6 4 3 0 3
Home teams winning to nil.
Yes Yes Won Drew Drew Lost Yes Lost Won Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Won Lost Yes Drew Won Lost Drew Lost Lost Lost
BTTS Yes.
Lost Lost Won Won Lost
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Won Lost Lost Won Lost

Up to a point, these results continued to follow the emerging patterns.
For this week the season weightings have been amended to 2 4 7 10 and several ratings have had a tweak.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:59 pm

There were 32 goals in midweek, with 5 BTTS YES and 8 Over 2.5 goals.

For this week the season weightings have been amended to 2 4 7 10 and several ratings have had a tweak.

Average Goals top.
4.05 Man City 3.16 Arsenal 3.06 Chelsea 2.85 Everton 2.69 Brighton
Average Goals bottom.
2.16 Stoke 2.50 Bournemouth 2.53 Leicester 2.60 West Brom 2.63 Watford
Over 2.5 Goals.
74.15 Man City 58.19 Chelsea 56.53 Arsenal 52.57 Everton 49.52 Brighton
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
36.27 Stoke 45.61 Bournemouth 46.32 Leicester 46.33 West Brom 48.58 Watford
Home teams winning to nil.
45.47 Chelsea 44.88 Everton 43.71 Man City 30.59 Arsenal 30.32 West Brom 29.37 Leicester 26.55 Stoke 23.26 Bournemouth 19.49 Brighton 10.40 Watford
Away teams winning to nil.
35.00 Tottenham 20.90 Liverpool 18.98 Swansea 17.67 Southampton 14.42 Man Utd 13.83 Crystal Palace 13.19 Burnley 5.96 Huddersfield 4.86 Newcastle 3.09 West Ham
BTTS Yes.
51.73 Brighton 51.01 Bournemouth 50.53 Man City 49.63 Leicester 46.90 West Brom
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
42.67 Stoke 42.94 Everton 44.74 Chelsea 45.23 Arsenal 46.84 Watford
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:04 am

This week's results saw 27 goals with 5 over 2.5 goals, 7 BTTS Yes, and just 2 Win to nils (both home).

Average Goals top.
3 4 4 2 6
Average Goals bottom.
3 2 1 0 2
Over 2.5 Goals.
3 4 4 2 6
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
3 2 1 0 2
Home teams winning to nil.
Won Yes Won Lost Drew Yes Won Drew Lost Drew
Away teams winning to nil.
Drew Won Lost Drew Won Drew Lost Lost Lost Lost
BTTS Yes.
Won Won Won Lost Lost
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Lost Won Lost Lost Lost

Apologies for missing the Leicester match from the list of 'Average Goals', but this was included in the Under 2.5 goals. I have amended the original post accordingly.
Up to a point, these results continued to follow the emerging patterns.
For this set of results, the season weightings were amended to 2 4 7 10 and several ratings had been given a tweak.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:15 pm

There were no further amendments to the calculations for this week, and it is unlikely that any will take place before Christmas so that the current set of variables have a chance to settle in.


Average Goals top.
3.33 Man Utd 3.12 Tottenham 3.04 Liverpool 2.77 Southampton 2.57 Crystal Palace
Average Goals bottom.
1.76 Huddersfield 2.11 Swansea 2.41 Burnley 2.47 Newcastle 2.52 West Ham
Over 2.5 Goals.
59.39 Tottenham 58.91 Man Utd 57.58 Liverpool 51.54 Southampton 46.02 West Ham
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
25.81 Huddersfield 34.91 Swansea 42.43 Burnley 44.85 Newcastle 45.97 Crystal Palace
Home teams winning to nil.
44.17 Tottenham 42.77 Liverpool 27.91 Man Utd 27.32 Burnley 24.43 Swansea 24.05 Huddersfield 23.99 Crystal Palace 21.01 Newcastle 18.11 Southampton 10.72 West Ham
Away teams winning to nil.
35.57 Chelsea 24.62 Brighton 21.97 West Brom 21.22 Arsenal 20.16 Leicester 18.22 Bournemouth 17.59 Watford 17.49 Man City 5.63 Everton 4.84 Stoke
BTTS Yes.
53.49 Southampton 50.43 Newcastle 48.85 Crystal Palace 46.40 Liverpool 46.38 Tottenham
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
33.82 Huddersfield 40.28 Swansea 43.34 Man Utd 44.22 Burnley 45.28 West Ham
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:41 pm

The second week running saw 27 goals with 4 over 2.5 goals, 6 BTTS Yes, and 4 Win to nils (all home).

Average Goals top.
3 6 2 2 4
Average Goals bottom.
2 1 1 5 1
Over 2.5 Goals.
6 3 2 2 1
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
2 1 1 5 4
Home teams winning to nil.
Won Drew Lost Yes Yes Yes Drew Lost Drew Yes
Away teams winning to nil.
Lost Lost Lost Drew Won Drew Lost Won Drew Lost
BTTS Yes.
Won Won Won Won Won
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Won Won Lost Won Won

Another fairly heartening set of results; notably the top 5 BTTS Yes % won as well as 4 of the best 5 BTTS no %.

For this set of results, the season weightings were amended to 2 4 7 10 and several ratings had been given a tweak.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:31 pm

Thanks to wayayeman for his help in getting this to the forum.

This is the full final page of the spreadsheet.

If anything is not clear, please drop a note and I shall endeavour to clarify (if it is a layout issue) or explain WHY (if the spreadsheet may have come up with an unusual answer).

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ChrisSmith1992
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby ChrisSmith1992 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:35 am

Thanks as always! I've used some of the above for my first go at tips via this method. Fingers crossed :win:

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:09 pm

Chris,

I wish you well, but please bear in mind that this is very much an ongoing prototype.

I'm beginning to notice some strengths and weaknesses but as they say, two sets of eyes are better than one. Any feedback (either here or by PM) as to what you are following and the degree of success (or otherwise) would be appreciated.

After the rush of fixtures over Christmas and the New Year, there is the weekend off for the Premier League due to the FA Cup. At that point, I will have a larger set of data on which to work, a clearer indication of areas that may need modification, and time to do something about it.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:57 pm

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:17 pm

The results from 12th/13th saw 21 goals with 4 over 2.5 goals, 3 BTTS Yes, and 5 Win to nils ( 3 home 2 away).

Average Goals top.
1 0 3 0 2
Average Goals bottom.
4 1 5 1 4
Over 2.5 Goals.
1 0 3 0 2
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
4 1 5 1 4
Home teams winning to nil.
Yes Yes Drew Yes Lost Lost Won Lost Drew Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Yes Won Drew Lost Won Yes Lost Lost Drew Lost
BTTS Yes.
Won Lost Lost Won Lost
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Won Won Won Lost Won

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:14 pm

The results from 16th/18th saw 29 goals with 7 over 2.5 goals, 4 BTTS Yes, and 5 Win to nils (2 home 3 away).


Average Goals top.
5 1 4 1 3
Average Goals bottom.
0 3 5 4 3
Over 2.5 Goals.
5 1 4 1 3
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
0 3 5 4 3
Home teams winning to nil.
Yes Lost Lost Yes Won Won Drew Lost Lost Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Won Yes Drew Yes Won Lost Won Yes Lost Lost
BTTS Yes.
Lost Lost Won Lost Won
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Lost Lost Won Won Won

A breakdown of the first 180 matches will follow, possibly in tabular form for ease of reference.

Apologies for transposing the W-0 odds in the Liverpool and West Brom matches - Oddschecker puts the fav at the top rather than the home side.
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