Football Handicap Betting 2016-2017

davidg3907
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Postby davidg3907 » Wed Aug 03, 2016 9:11 am

STSSTS PM sent
I agree with you on Stoke as they made my short list.
Apparently, STSSTS managed to agree with the comments in the PM without even opening it. :P :lol:
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davidg3907
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Postby davidg3907 » Wed Aug 03, 2016 9:26 am

I have copied the PM below.

Does anyone else do season long tissues pre-season, and if so do your methods differ significantly?

Hi,

Done just after the fixture list was announced, I have 38 rounds of matches in this format.
As per the post on the forum, Hull and Everton odds are to be revised before the start.

I work to as close to a 101.5% book as I can for each match, but the spreadsheet will rectify all to 100%.

Last season, I found myself being slightly under the odds for draws so have tried to extend them slightly.

Below are my original odds for the first week, along with the points expectation as calculated. I am fairly happy with that attempt, but of course, later in the season they do need to be updated, although I keep a copy of the original for reference.

I am not trying to predict results (I'm not good enough to predict 380 results in a season) but to find the balance between expectancy and reality.

Is your approach similar?

Round 1
Arsenal Liverpool 2.25 3.50 3.50 1.59 1.13
Bourne Man Utd 6.20 5.00 1.53 0.67 2.13
Burnley Swansea 2.40 3.50 3.20 1.51 1.21
Chelsea West Ham 1.83 3.60 5.20 1.89 0.84
Crystal WBA 2.65 3.45 2.88 1.40 1.31
Everton Tottenham 3.85 3.60 2.10 1.04 1.68
Hull Leicester 4.50 3.85 1.87 0.91 1.83
Man Cit Sunderland 1.20 8.00 17.00 2.58 0.30
Middles Stoke 2.20 3.55 3.60 1.62 1.10
SouthamWatford 2.20 3.55 3.60 1.62 1.10

Since sending this, I have amended the matches involving Hull and Everton. This has resulted in a drop of slightly more than 2 pts in Hull's tally for the season, similarly Everton's tally has increased by almost 3 pts.

The major difference is that Hull drop a long way down the list, while the only other overall differences are that Middlesbrough have become slightly ahead of Watford instead of just behind them, and Stoke have displaced Everton at the bottom.

I may change Stoke's figures nearer the start, but not currently.
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Postby davidg3907 » Wed Aug 03, 2016 10:46 pm

Tommy,

The task of creating tissues for 380 matches between teams with which I am fairly familiar is one thing; doing it for 552 matches (x3) between teams about which I know significantly less, is something else. :lol:

Having said that my early fancies for the top flight handicap honours are Middlesbrough, Burnley, West Brom, and Watford, I would make only these tentative suggestions for the other divisions.

As far as the Championship, Leagues One and Two are concerned, the bookies seem less happy to give really big handicaps to many teams. Taking into consideration that they play virtually a quarter more matches than in the Premier League, one would, in theory at least, expect to see handicaps bordering on 55-60.

This doesn't happen; primarily because these divisions are (wrongly in my opinion) deemed to be much more competitive. I agree that many teams can beat each other on any given day, but last season only 7, 9, and 13 of the 24 teams were within 29 points of the winners of C, L1, and L2 respectively. The previous year it was 11, 5, and 9. In the year before that 5, 6, and 17. Going back further, in the previous 7 seasons, only 3 clubs outside the top 15 have been within 29 points of the winner - including Leicester, who managed to get relegated from the Championship.

By contrast, taking 45 as the mark that can be treated as a handicap that will be around the maximum in the Premier League, of the 21 years since it was reduced to 20 teams, only twice have less than 12 teams failed to be within range of the winner. One of those occasions saw 11; the other saw just 9 when Chelsea won the title with a massive 95 points. In the first 4 such seasons, 18, 20, 20, and 19 finished within 45 points of the winner. In the last 13 seasons, 9 have seen between 12 and 14 teams in that range, meaning that there is significantly more scope for the high handicap teams to do well.

Championship. Newcastle and Sheffield Wednesday appear to offer some hope, with QPR possibly getting involved too.

Newcastle, being considered far ahead of the opposition has still only caused a spread of 0-29, with just 3 teams receiving a greater start ( 32, 34 and 40).

Leagues One and Two have no teams with as many as 30 points start, making it far less likely that the top teams in these divisions will be overtaken by those with a big handicap. The poor teams just have very little chance of winning the handicap, but can get placed.

For this exercise, that means the biggest handicap on offer irrespective of how it compares to other teams.

The 'almost' teams from last season tend to perform well in League One, without producing the Champion, while the experience of the dog fight in League Two seems to give similar teams a platform to build on next time round with more winning the title the following season.

For those reasons alone, my picks for these divisions would be Bradford City and Millwall in League One, along with Accrington and Plymouth in League Two.

These will hardly be earth-shattering prophecies, but are made in good faith from experience rather than specific study.

The main point to remember is that in comparison to the Premier League, bigger handicap teams in the other three divisions must, in general, outperform their handicap by a greater margin.
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Re: Football Handicap Betting 2016-2017

Postby davidg3907 » Sat May 06, 2017 8:08 pm

The scenarios above played out quite well.

League 1
Winners Sheffield United finished 11th in L1 last season.
Auto-Promoted Scunthorpe finished 7th last season.
Playoffs Bolton (relegated from Championship), Bradford (5th L1), Fleetwood (19th L1), Millwall (4th L1).

League 2
Winners Portsmouth finished 6th in L2 last season.
Auto-Promoted Plymouth (5th L2 last season), Doncaster (relegated from L1).
Playoffs Luton (11th L2), Exeter (14th L2), Carlisle (10th L2), Blackpool (relegated from L1).

As far as Handicap winners are concerned,

The top 6 in (BetVictor but others may vary slightly) League 1 had handicaps of 22, 0, 12, 12, 10, and 18.
I backed Bradford who finished 5th (ugh!) and Millwall 11th.
By a strange twist of fate, they will meet in the playoff final.

The top 7 in League 2 had (bet365) handicaps of 8, 24, 20, 5, 0, 16, and 15.
I backed Plymouth (Winners) and Accrington who finished 9th.

In both leagues, the highest handicapped teams fared poorly.

It is a similar story in the Championship ( I think these were Betfair figures but not having a bet I can't be certain). Huddersfield (24), Brighton (12), and Reading (20), dead-heated on 105. Fulham (20) finished 4th with Sheffield Wednesday (14) and Leeds (20) ending up joint 5th.
I did not back my selections of Newcastle and Sheffield Wednesday.

The Premier League has a bit longer to run. Using BV figures again, I backed West Brom, Burnley, and Middlesbrough, while highlighting Watford as 4th best. Chelsea and Tottenham are threatening to spoil the party but I'm hopeful of either West Brom or Burnley (maybe both) being placed. The result on Betfair shows Chelsea leading from Tottenham, with a slight (but not unsurmountable) gap back to West Brom, Burnley, Everton, Watford, and Liverpool.

Again, I shall update this at the end of the season.
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Re: Football Handicap Betting 2016-2017

Postby martinkem » Fri May 19, 2017 3:21 am

Has anyone got any idea what the handicaps were for the Scottish Premier league

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