Football Handicap Betting 2016-2017

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Football Handicap Betting 2016-2017

Postby STSSTS » Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:43 am

I have also placed this analysis on the Betfair Forum

Looking at the results of each League in turn, I hope to find trends in the results which will help us locate the League handicap winners for the upcoming season.

I have used the handicap results for the last 7 or 8 seasons using the “average†handicap of all the main bookmakers who offer this betting option. The bookmakers used are, Corals, Hills, bet365, Ladbrokes, VC, PP and Betfred.

Some of the trends are very interesting, to me anyway, and can be used to add or delete a team to your short list .

I have found betting on the League handicaps very profitable and have landed a number of decent multiple bets over the years and once again I'd just like to share my methods and my enthusiasm for this betting medium.

The teams most likely to prevail, are teams that are going to finish in the top 6 places of their respective leagues., the following stats show that.

Of course you have to source out the best handicaps. That may not necessarily be with the bookmaker who is giving your team the greatest start as you also have to factor in what start the bookmaker is giving to the rest of the competition.

For example in the Championship, Coral have Birmingham off 30 whilst Hills have them with only an 18 point start and similarly in The Premiership, Ladbrokes have Burnley off only 40 whist VC have them off 48.

In this years handicaps there are a lot of discrepancies like the above, which, in some leagues, will allow us to bet two teams and WIN ON BOTH.

PREMIERSHIP RESULTS USING THE LAST 8 SEASONS

2008-09 Stoke(P) 52 Fulham 44 Liverpool 9 Man Utd Scr (Final League Positions Were: 12 / 7 / 2 / 1)
Europa League Teams: Aston Villa, Everton, Man City, Portsmouth, Tottenham.
2009-10 Birmingham(P) 48 Tottenham 22 Aston Villa 26 Blackburn 40 (Final League Positions Were: 9 / 4 / 6 / 10)
Europa League Teams: Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool.
2010-11 Blackpool(P) 52 WBA(P) 47 Bolton 40 Fulham 37 (Final League Positions Were: 19 / 11 / 14 / 8)
Europa League Teams: Aston Villa, Man City, Liverpool.
2011-12 Newcastle 36 Swansea(P) 45 Norwich(P) 45 Man City 5 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 11 / 12 / 1)
Europa League Teams: Birmingham, Fulham, Man City, Man Utd, Stoke, Tottenham.
2012-13 Man Utd 3 Everton 27 Swansea 41 WBA 39 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 9 / 8)
Europa League Teams: Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle, Tottenham.
2013-14 Liverpool 16 Everton 25 Crystal Palace(P) 49 Southampton 35 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 5 / 11 / 8)
Europa League Teams: Swansea, Tottenham, Wigan
2014-15 Swansea 39 Southampton 35 Crystal Palace 44 Stoke 36 (Final League Positions Were: 8 / 7 / 10 / 9)
Europa League Teams: Everton, Hull, Liverpool, Tottenham
2015-2016 Leicester 45 West Ham 38 Watford 48 Tottenham 24 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 7 / 13 / 3)

ONLY 1 SCRATCH TEAM MADE THE TOP 4 (MAN UTD IN 2008/09) IN THE 8 SEASON SAMPLE @ 3.1% - RULES OUT MAN CITY FINISHING IN THE FRAME.

ONLY 7 OF THE 32 POSSIBLE PLACE POSITIONS WERE FILLED BY ONE OF THE BIG 6 – AVERAGE OF 21.8% OF WHICH THERE WERE 3 WINNERS OF THE TITLE.

ONLY 3 TEAMS THAT PLAYED IN THE EUROPA LEAGUE MADE THE TOP 4 IN THE SAME SEASON @ 9.4%. ALTHOUGH THIS DEMONSTRATES WHAT THE ADDITIONAL DEMANDS THAT THAT COMPETITION HAS ON A TEAMS LEAGUE PERFORMANCE, TOTTENHAM BUCKED THE TREND LAST YEAR. THIS SEASONS ENTRANTS ARE: MAN UTD, SOUTHAMPTON AND WEST HAM.

AN AVERAGE OF 1 PROMOTED TEAM MAKES THE TOP 4 EVERY SEASON, INCLUDING 3 WHO HAVE WON, SO IT IS QUITE PROBABLE BOOKMAKERS STILL UNDERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH, RESOLVE AND WINNING MENTALITY OF THE PROMOTED SIDES. WATFORD WERE THE TEAM THAT DID IT LAST SEASON AND THERE ARE VERY GOOD REASONS TO INCLUDE MIDDLESBORO ON ONE OF THE HANDICAP LISTS THIS SEASON ON THE BASIS THAT TEAMS AUTOMATCALLY PROMOTED PERFORM ABOVE THE LEVEL THE BOOKMAKERS EXPECT.

THE MOST LIKELY FINISHING POSITION TO HIT THE TOP 4 OF THE HANDICAP IN THE PREMIERSHIP IS TO FINISH 5TH TO 12TH IN THE LEAGUE. THAT IS BECAUSE OF THE MASSIVE SPREAD OF POINTS GIVEN TO TEAMS AT THE START OF THE COMPETITION.

21 OF THE 32 PLACES IN THE 8 SEASON SAMPLE AT 65.6% DID SO AND ALSO DID NOT PLAY IN THE EUROPA LEAGUE OR THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE.

WHO ARE THOSE 2ND TIER TEAMS?
STATS SUGGEST WE CAN SWERVE MAN CITY, ARSENAL, MAN UTD, CHELSEA, LIVERPOOL,TOTTENHAM (THE BIG 6) and LEICESTER, SOUTHAMPTON and WEST HAM – ON THE BASIS THEY ARE IN EUROPE.
SIDES LIKELY TO BE IN THE RELEGATION DOG FIGHT ARE BURNLEY, HULL, MIDDLESBORO, SUNDERLAND, WATFORD, WEST BROM, and BOURNEMOUTH.

THIS LEAVES US ONLY EVERTON, STOKE, SWANSEA, CRYSTAL PALACE WHO FIT THE 5th TO 12th PROFILE AND DO NOT HAVE A EUROPEAN DISTRACTION.

THE BEST BOOKMAKER HANDICAPS ARE:
EVERTON 23
STOKE 32
CRYSTAL PALACE 34
SWANSEA 38

STANDOUT HANDICAPS (if you're against the stats) ARE: LEICESTER 21 - Coral, WEST HAM 24 - Coral and MIDDLESBORO 44 - VC and the Corbett Group (but only 36 Coral and 37 Ladbrokes). Leicester are so hard to predict here as any similar performance to last season could see us all with egg on our faces – again!

This seasons Betfair handicaps are identical to those of William Hills.

CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS USING THE LAST 7 SEASONS

2009-10 Newcastle(R) Scr Blackpool 29 WBA(R) 1 Nottm Forest 12 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 2 / 3)
2010-11 Norwich(P) 11 Swansea 14 QPR 5 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 1 / 4 – top 4 in league)
2011-12 Southampton(P) 14 Reading 10 Watford 28 Blackpool(R) 14 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 11 / 5)
2012-13 Crystal Palace 27 Hull 15 Watford 17 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 3 / 1)
2013-14 Burnley 24 Leicester 6 Derby 15 Blackburn 13 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 3 / 8)
2014-15 Bournemouth 16 Brentford(P) 22 Middlesbrough 12 Watford 7 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 5 / 4 / 2)
2015-16 Brighton 14 Burnley(R) 7 Middlesboro 1 Hull(R) 4 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 1 / 2 / 4 – top 4 in league)

THE TOP 2 – FIGURED IN ALL 7 SEASONS AND TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 6 FILLED A STAGGERING 26 OF THE POSSIBLE 28 PLACE POSITIONS.

ONLY 1 SCRATCH TEAM MADE THE TOP 4, NEWCASTLE WHO COLLECTED OVER 100 POINTS IN 2009-10, BUT NEWCASTLE HAVE TO BE BET HERE FOR REASONS I WILL EXPLAIN.

5 TEAMS RELEGATED FROM THE PREVIOUS SEASON AND 3 TEAMS PROMOTED TO THE DIVISION FROM THE PREVIOUS SEASON MADE THE TOP 4, TWO OF THOSE PROMOTED WINNING THE HANDICAP.

EXCLUDING WATFORD IN 2011-2012 AND BLACKBURN IN 2013-14 ALL POSITIONS HAVE BEEN FILLED BY TEAMS WHO FINISHED IN THE TOP 6 – A MASSIVE 92.8%.

SO WHO WILL BE TOP 6 THIS SEASON?
NEWCASTLE, NORWICH, ASTON VILLA, SHEFF WED, DERBY and BRIGHTON are the bookmakers favourites.

Betting Newcastle on the handicap with Betfred or Hills has massive advantages over simply betting them to win the league, for which they are generally a 7/4 poke. If you place £100 on them to win the league, your return is £275, and if they win the league, the stats say they will definitely finish in the top 4 of the handicap for which a £50 Each Way bet returns the same £275. The upside of playing them on the handicap is twofold: if they win the league, there is a very strong possibility that they will also win the handicap and then your £50 Each Way returns £1225, if they do not win the league there is still a chance that they can still place in the handicap and yield a £275 return rather than £0 betting them in the outright market. The reason I suggest the above 2 bookmakers is because the starts given to Newcastle's opponents is significantly less with these 2 than the starts given by other bookmakers. Newcastle are being quoted at a lower price to amass 100 points or more (10/1) than they are to win the handicap, put it simply, if they get 100 points or more, they win the handicap! One is 18/1 – one is 10/1 – No brainer really!!

DIVISION 1 RESULTS USING THE LAST 7 SEASONS

2009-10 Swindon 24 Norwich(R) 6 Millwall 13 Charlton(R) 8 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 1 / 3 / 4)
2010-11 Brighton 12 Exeter(P) 32 Bournemouth(P) 28 Rochdale 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 8 / 6 / 9)
2011-12 Charlton 4 Stevenage(P) 26 Sheff Utd(R) 5 Sheff Wed 2 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 3 / 2)
2012-13 Yeovil 28 Walsall 31 L Orient 27 Doncaster(R) 10 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 9 / 7 / 1)
2013-14 Leyton Orient 19 Wolves Scr Brentford 6 Rotherham(P) 12 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 1 / 2 / 4)
2014-15 Bristol C 4 MK Dons 10 Swindon 17 Preston 4 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 2 / 4 / 3)
2015-16 Walsall 19 Burton(P) 16 Port Vale 24 Wigan(R) 2 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 2 / 12 / 1)

THE DIVISIONAL CHAMPIONS FIGURED IN ALL 7 SEASONS AND TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 9 FILLED ALL BUT 1 OF THE 28 PLACE POSITIONS.

THE TEAMS FILLING THE TOP 3 POSITIONS IN THE LEAGUE HAVE ALSO BEEN THE TOP 4 IN THE HANDICAP ON 4 OF THE 7 OCCASIONS.

ONLY 1 SCRATCH TEAM HAS MADE THE TOP 4 IN 7 SEASONS, SO CROSS OFF SHEFF UTD THIS SEASON.

5 TEAMS PROMOTED TO THE DIVISION FROM THE PREVIOUS SEASON AND 6 TEAMS RELEGATED FROM THE PREVIOUS SEASON HAVE FIGURED.

ONLY 1 TEAM FINISHING OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 9 FIGURED IN THE 7 SEASON SAMPLE.

SO WHO WILL BE TOP 9 THIS SEASON, SHEFF UTD DISREGARDED ON THE STATS.
MILLWALL, BRADFORD, CHARLTON, MK DONS BOLTON and SCUNTHORPE should provide many of the answers.

DIVISION 2 RESULTS USING THE LAST 7 SEASONS

2009-10 Aldershot 25 Notts Co Scr Bournemouth 10 Rochdale 11 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 2 / 3)
2010-11 Accrington 26 Bury 9 Chesterfield 5 Shrewsbury 9 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 1 / 4)
2011-12 Cheltenham 31 Swindon(R) 6 Torquay 17 Southend 17 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 5 / 4)
2012-13 Burton 27 Port Vale 18 Gillingham 12 Cheltenham 16 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 3 / 1 / 5)
2013-14 Rochdale 14 Scunthorpe(R) 10 York 19 Dagenham 28 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 7 / 9)
2014-15 Wycombe 23 Burton 9 Southend 10 Shrewsbury 4(R) (Final League Positions Were: 4/ 1 / 5 / 2)
2015-16 Accrington 27 Nothampton 10 Bristol R(P) 12 Plymouth 13 (Final League Positions Were: 4/ 1 / 3 / 5)

TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 6 IN THE LEAGUE FILLED 26 OF THE 28 PLACE POSITIONS, A MASSIVE 92.8%, ONLY YORK AND DAGENHAM IN 2013-14 BUCK THAT TREND.

ONLY NOTTS CO, UNDER SVEN, MADE IT TO THE TOP 4 AS A SCRATCH TEAM, SO PORTSMOUTH ARE A MASSIVE SWERVE.

ONLY 1 PROMOTED TEAM HAS FIGURED AND ONLY 3 RELEGATED TEAMS HAVE BEEN PLACED.

NO TEAM FINISHING OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 9 FIGURED AT ALL IN THE 6 SEASON SAMPLE.

AS THE TOP 6 PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THOSE WHO HAVE FILLED THE FRAME, WHO ARE THE LIKELY SUSPECTS THIS SEASON - PORTSMOUTH DISREGARDED ON THE STATS?
LUTON, LEYTON O, DONCASTER, PLYMOUTH and CAMBRIDGE are the leading fancies.


CONFERENCE RESULTS USING THE LAST 7 SEASONS


2009-10 Stevenage 7 Rushden 17 York 15 Salisbury 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 4 / 5 / 12)
2010-11 Crawley 5 AFC Wimbledon 17 Wrexham 17 Fleetwood(P) 17 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 2 / 4 / 5)
2011-12 Southport 33 Wrexham 11 Fleetwood 2 Gateshead 25 (Final League Positions Were: 7 / 2 / 1 / 8)
2012-13 Newport 22 Dartford(P) 39 Kidderminster 14 Hyde(P) 42 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 8 / 2 / 18)
2013-14 Braintree 28 Luton 1 Salisbury(P) 33 Nuneaton 34 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 12 / 13)
ONLY 2 BOOKMAKERS PRICED UP IN 2014-15
2014-15 Macclesfield 24 Barnet 8 Dover 26 Grimsby 6 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 8 / 3)
ONLY 365 PRICED UP IN 2015-16
2015-16 Cheltenham(R) 7 Braintree 25 Dover 18 Forest Green 5 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 3 / 5/ 2)

TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 8 IN THE LEAGUE FILLED 24 OF THE POSSIBLE 28 PLACE POSITIONS.

NO SCRATCH TEAM IN ANY OF THE TOP 4'S (ALTHOUGH LUTON WERE SCRATCH IN PLACES (2013-14) FOREST GREEN'S HANDICAP AVERAGE WAS LOWER) .

6 LEAGUE WINNERS HAVE FIGURED IN THE TOP 4.

4 PROMOTED TEAM HAVE FIGURED AND CHELTENHAM ARE THE FIRST RELEGATED TEAM TO BE PLACED.

85.7% OF POSITIONS HAVE BEEN FILLED BY TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 8.

SWERVE FOREST GREEN AS SCRATCH TEAMS HAVE A POOR RECORD and YORK AND DAGENHAM ON THE BASIS THAT RELEGATED TEAMS SELDOM PERFORM WELL AT THIS LEVEL FIRST SEASON IN.
CHOOSE FROM: TRANMERE, EASTLEIGH and WREXHAM.

In conclusion I fancy:
PREMIERSHIP: 15/1 Middlesboro +44 Corbett Group, 15/1 Swansea +38 Betfred, and a small bet on 15/1 Leicester +21 Corals
CHAMPIONSHIP: 18/1 Newcastle Scratch Betfred and Hills (Saver On 18/1 Norwich +11 Ladbrokes)
LEAGUE ONE: 18/1 Charlton +5 Ladbrokes and 18/1 Scunthorpe +14 PP
LEAGUE TWO: 18/1 Plymouth +10 Betfred and 18/1 Doncaster +5 Betfred.
CONFERENCE: 18/1 Tranmere +5 Coral and 18/1 Eastleigh +5 B365
SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP: 9/1 Motherwell +42 Betfred and 7/1 Hearts +27 Ladbrokes.


NAP – NEWCASTLE SCRATCH 18/1 Betfred and Hills.

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Postby nors » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:39 pm

Very interesting post STSSTS, and something for other members to consider and comment on pre season.

Pointing out the different handicaps with different bookies is helpful.

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Postby ibfm23 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:50 pm

Hi STSSTS

Great post first of all.

Is there a reason why you haven't considered Stoke at +31 or +32?

I reckon they can get to somewhere between 55 - 60 points this year.

They have kept their best players, ok not much in, but Allen should do fairly well for them and I still expect Hughes to land a couple of signings.

ibfm23

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Postby TheKnow » Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:53 pm

Brilliant post STSSTS!

Makes a heck of a lot of sense backing Newcastle on the handicap because of the points you've made - I wasn't prepared to back them at 7/4, due to missing out on the early prices of 5/1 and 7/2 that were previously quoted - but backing them Each Way at 18/1 in the handicap market is exactly the way to go now!

I'm going to have the suggested £50 Each Way (split between Betfred and Hills) and also follow you in on 4 of your suggested Betfred handicap teams in a couple of multi-bets.

There'll be a good drink in this for you if this all comes off sir! :D

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Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:15 pm

Although my original tissue only showed an expectancy of 45 pts, I expected Leicester to hit the upper 50s last season, and with a 45 pts start was happy to back them at various odds from 26.00 down. Even on the tissue, with 89.68, they were 4 pts clear of West Ham, Watford, Southampton, Sunderland, and Aston Villa all in the 85's.

I had to wait from October to April to get paid out on the Express payout market but it was well worth the wait.

This year 's contest looks far more open for reasons that I outline below.

With 380 matches in the Premier League season, there are 1140 points on offer, but around 100 draws (for last season I've used 106 for convenience in this post) where only 2 points are awarded, brings the likely total down to approximately 1034. Betfair handicaps for last season amounted to 586 taking the nett figure to 1620.

Divided by 20 teams, that meant an average of 81 points per team, so 81 becomes mid-table. You will no doubt be relieved to hear that I am not into Standard Deviation, but Leicester's total of 126 (81+45) is way off the standard scale. The top figure tends to be between 92 and the low 100s.

Changing the number of anticipated draws for this season to 105 (again for convenience) leaves 1035 as the points available. This season's handicaps only add up to 495, making the total 1530 and the average (mid-table) only 76.50 points.

That is a big difference, as the top teams have much less ground to make up, and they should be more competitive.

Using Betfair handicaps, my 'not quite ready for the off but almost' tissues for 380 matches show the following, with estimated totals and Betfair handicaps.

#1. The disruption at Hull is likely to cause their tissue to drop by up to 2 pts when their 38 matches are re-assessed, with negligible increases for the rest.

#2. Should Everton keep Stones and Lukaku, there would likewise be a rise of at most 2-3 points in their tissue, insufficient to move them up the table, but again little impact on the rest.

81.72 West Brom (40)
81.23 Burnley (44)
80.56 Watford (40)
80.46 Middlesbrough (40)

79.79 Hull (44)
79.47 West Ham (20)
79.17 Leicester (19)
78.93 Sunderland (40)
78.53 Chelsea (5)
77.71 Manchester United (2)
77.44 Arsenal (5)
75.09 Bournemouth (34)
74.82 Manchester City (0)
74.65 Southampton (25)
74.29 Crystal Palace (33)
74.18 Swansea (36)
73.97 Liverpool (8)
73.95 Tottenham (8)
72.84 Stoke (30)
69.19 Everton (22)
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RP Pullout Handicap Recommendation - Championship

Postby STSSTS » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:59 am

The Racing Post have put up Sheffield Wednesday +16 for the Championship with Ladbrokes and this is a classic example of them not doing their homework.

Looking at the full Championship handicaps of both Hills and Ladbrokes, if you compare the overall differences of the Hills handicap for Sheffield Wednesday, +14, with that of Ladbrokes you will see that:

Hills have a better start on only 3 teams: Newcastle, Rotherham and Derby
Hills have the same start for 5 - obviously includes Sheffield Wednesday
Hills give an overall lower start for 16 teams.

Putting it simply, if you back Sheffield Wednesday with Hills you only have to worry about 3 teams as against the Ladbrokes handicap, but if you follow the RP advice, then 16 teams can do you at Ladbrokes as opposed to being on with Hills.

CONCLUSION: If you're betting Sheffield Wednesday on the handicap then Hills +14 offers more potential than the +16 of Ladbrokes.

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Postby STSSTS » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:26 am

davidg3907

I similarly use my own tissues for the Premiership, Championship, Leagues 1 & 2, the National league and The Scottish Premiership handicaps.

The average I arrived at for this season was very similar to your own, and that was 76.6 - which is also the high end of the points total Sporting Index are quoting on the Scratch team Man City.

This lower than average mid point suggests to me, that this seasons Handicap winner will amass, in total, no more than 90 points.

I think Middlesboro have showed great ambition during the summer and points promoted sides have done well in the last few seasons. I believe they can deliver a mid 40's points total and the back of a good home record and being defensively sound away from home.

So 45 + 44 (point start) will get me at least a place here.

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Postby trouserdog78 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:46 pm

Hi STSSTS

Great post first of all.

Is there a reason why you haven't considered Stoke at +31 or +32?

I reckon they can get to somewhere between 55 - 60 points this year.

They have kept their best players, ok not much in, but Allen should do fairly well for them and I still expect Hughes to land a couple of signings.

ibfm23
As a Stoke fan I don't tend to bet on my own team too much, but even I think we're nicely handicapped in this market.

55-60 points should be well within reach given that we're unlikely to suffer the same injury nightmare as last year, and we still managed to post 51 points with the dodgiest goalkeeper in the world (yes, Jakub Haugaard that's you) flapping around for a couple of months at the end of the season.

His inclusion (after Butland and Given were injured at the same time) cost us at least another 4 or 5 points, and that's before we get onto the injuries to Shawcross, Johnson, etc etc.

I like the business we've done so far (Allen especially), and a whole season with the awesome Imbula in midfield is something to get excited about. Hughes is targeting a striker (with Berahino likely to arrive), but even if we don't land one, I'd be more than happy with Diouf, who had a very disrupted season last year after suffering a family tragedy. He's looked back to his best in pre-season though and with Shaqiri, Bojan and Arnie feeding him, should easily hit double figures with enough starts.

The fly in the ointment is at CB, where Shawcross is looking increasingly injury-prone and the rest of our defenders are, quite frankly, rubbish. If we can strengthen this area and land a striker as well then we could push for the top 7.

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Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:30 pm

STSSTS PM sent
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Postby STSSTS » Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:39 pm

STSSTS PM sent
I agree with you on Stoke as they made my short list.

"THIS LEAVES US ONLY EVERTON, STOKE, SWANSEA, CRYSTAL PALACE WHO FIT THE 5th TO 12th PROFILE AND DO NOT HAVE A EUROPEAN DISTRACTION"

I bet them last season but I strongly believe that Middlesboro will make an impression on the league this season and the points spread I can get between them and Stoke is 12 points (both Coral and Ladbrokes have the gap at 6 points).

If I had to take the 6 point spread, undoubtedly I would have taken Stoke.

By the way Victor Chandler have now cut Middlesboro off 44 to 9/1, so it looks like there are more than me fancying the Smoggies this season.

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Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:03 pm

It was perhaps my money that shortened Middlesbrough @ +44 (along with ticking the box that said I was prepared to take higher odds :lol: ).

I have had smaller bets on West Brom +42 and Burnley +48.

All 3 are Each Way so I shall be disappointed to get nothing back.
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Postby ibfm23 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:42 pm

Hi STSSTS

Great post first of all.

Is there a reason why you haven't considered Stoke at +31 or +32?

I reckon they can get to somewhere between 55 - 60 points this year.

They have kept their best players, ok not much in, but Allen should do fairly well for them and I still expect Hughes to land a couple of signings.

ibfm23
As a Stoke fan I don't tend to bet on my own team too much, but even I think we're nicely handicapped in this market.

55-60 points should be well within reach given that we're unlikely to suffer the same injury nightmare as last year, and we still managed to post 51 points with the dodgiest goalkeeper in the world (yes, Jakub Haugaard that's you) flapping around for a couple of months at the end of the season.

His inclusion (after Butland and Given were injured at the same time) cost us at least another 4 or 5 points, and that's before we get onto the injuries to Shawcross, Johnson, etc etc.

I like the business we've done so far (Allen especially), and a whole season with the awesome Imbula in midfield is something to get excited about. Hughes is targeting a striker (with Berahino likely to arrive), but even if we don't land one, I'd be more than happy with Diouf, who had a very disrupted season last year after suffering a family tragedy. He's looked back to his best in pre-season though and with Shaqiri, Bojan and Arnie feeding him, should easily hit double figures with enough starts.

The fly in the ointment is at CB, where Shawcross is looking increasingly injury-prone and the rest of our defenders are, quite frankly, rubbish. If we can strengthen this area and land a striker as well then we could push for the top 7.
Great analysis. Convinced me to go for it even more.

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