Do You Bet On Premier League Alternative Betting Markets?

nors
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Do You Bet On Premier League Alternative Betting Markets?

Postby nors » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:40 am

This looks like a record season for betting markets, the bookies are offering odds on everything!
tbuckley has covered a few alternatives away from the main ones. http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411414

Have members got any specific markets that they are looking to bet on?

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Postby Micko70 » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:56 am

What i am looking at, especially for my side this season (Sadly, not a Premier League team though) is the HT/FT Correct Score market.

I am thinking of taking my team to lead 2-0 at half time and win the game 3-1, i know Paddy Power offer this market.

If they lead at half time 2-0, then my plan is to cash out once the 3rd goal is scored, as long as the score is 2-0 at half time, no matter who scores the 3rd goal, the bet is still live.

When Newcastle were last in the Championship, they led at half time 2-0 in 6 matches.

There was a 3rd goal in 4 of those 6 matches and with only 46 games to play, i am pretty sure that the cash out on all 4 games would have added up to more than the 46 units to get your stake back

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Postby ibfm23 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:12 pm

I think its just the right time to start looking at some ante-posts guys.

Let's get a bit organized:

Outright winner & Top at Xmas

I am picking Chelsea . No European football means full focus on the league. Conte is an experienced manager and won't let too many points slip against mid-low table sides. Both markets are priced at 7. A good start could see that price drop by 30-50%.

Top 10 finish

What about Stoke at 3? The Big 6, Leicester and West Ham should in theory be top 8. That leaves 2 places for Southampton, Everton, Stoke and maybe Crystal Palace. The Saints and the Toffees priced at 1.73 and 1.5 look to short compared to Hughes's side considering the players they have lost or are about to lose (Everton reportedly parting ways with Stones and Lukaku).

Highest scoring team

Manchester City at 3 look the obvious choice but Liverpool at 10 could actually have more value. Liverpool averaged 1.83 goals under Klopp last year which extrapolated to 38 matches would almost bring them in line with City.

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Postby tbuckley » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:49 pm

Cheers for posting the link to the blog Nors.

You are spot on about the number of markets being offered & I would think the major factor behind it is the fact nobody, & in that I mean anybody connected to the game, really knows with confidence what will happen this season, it's another example of the effect of Leicester City winning the league as 5,000/1 shots.

It's so unpredictable & so tough to call with any kind of confidence, I don't know which 4 teams will make the top 6 never mind who will win it, I've got an idea about which teams might struggle.

The only really confident bet I've struck so far was HULL CITY to get relegated at 10/11 and that's a big shorter now & will keep shortening as they simply don't look to have anything like the squad to survive & of course don't even have a manager, Roberto Martinez getting the job would make them 1/5 shots in my opinion, maybe Hull to reach a Cup final & relegation could be the bet if Martinez gets it!!!

I've had small dabbles in the Top Goalscorer market at big odds, I've backed De Bruyne & Henrikh Mkhitaryan at 40/1 & 50/1 Each Way respectively, very small bets but I think they are capable of scoring plenty this year.

I've also had a small bet on Manchester United points total of 74 to 76 points at 5/1, over 76 was only 11/10 & Under 74 was 11/10 and they are too short in my opinion, I think they'll improve just enough to fit into that bracket of 74 to 76, 5/1 makes it worth the risk.

I really don't know if I'll do too many many ante-post bets on the Premier League, will look at the markets more and see what I can come up with for a bit more extra interest.

I have to say that I think Ibfm23 has hit several points spot on, the Stoke top half is the best value option in that market in my opinion and that could well sneak into my ante-post portfolio, he's bang on about the reasons and the case of Stoke compared to Everton and Southampton.

This is a fascinating topic & will be very interesting to find out what others go for.
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Postby tbuckley » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:52 pm

For those interested this was the first of the ante-post betting approach blogs I did this season looking some options in other markets like Season Match bets, Top Half Finish, League forecasts & Tricasts, Top Regional Club & more

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411394
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Postby undertherobe » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:53 pm

Top North East Club

Love the value on Sunderland here. I had Hull down to struggle before Steve Bruce left and I love the hire of David Moyes. I'm not too concerned by the lack of signings for the Black Cats, Moyes proved very shrewd in the loan market at Everton and I expect him to do more of the same over the next month.

Sunderland finished the season strongly and I can't say I'm overly impressed with Middlesborough's signings. Sunderland at 5/4 to finish ahead of 'boro and Hull

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Postby undertherobe » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:59 pm

Top 10 finish

What about Stoke at 3? The Big 6, Leicester and West Ham should in theory be top 8. That leaves 2 places for Southampton, Everton, Stoke and maybe Crystal Palace. The Saints and the Toffees priced at 1.73 and 1.5 look to short compared to Hughes's side considering the players they have lost or are about to lose (Everton reportedly parting ways with Stones and Lukaku).
Stoke certainly seem the value price on the back of three straight 9th place finishes but Everton will replace Stones and Lukaku if they do leave and whilst not value at 1.5 (although I think they'll comfortably make top 10), the price may come out closer to evens if the bookies over react to those players leaving.

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Postby ibfm23 » Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:07 am

Yes I agree that Everton will replace but could effect the start of the season. Stoke on the other hand are all set and any additions at this stage are a bonus. That said, I agree that if Everton's price moves they could be value given Koeman's credentials to work with a changing side.

Another market, Lowest Scoring Side

I am looking at Watford and Swansea with interest, priced at 9 and 15 respectively. Two Italian managers, will undoubtedly take care of the defensive side of the game but could have an effect on the goal tally.

Watford's first five are against Saints, Chelsea, Arsenal, West Ham and ManU!! Could well be able to trade after that run.

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Postby nors » Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:59 pm

What do members think about individual teams top goalscorers market as covered by IBFM 23 in his blog, any stand outs?

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411450

nors
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Re: Premier League Alternative Betting Markets

Postby nors » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:06 am

As we are now half way thru the season are members favouring particular alternative betting markets? and if so which betting markets are floating your boat?

Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
Result and BTTS
Draw No Bet
Double Chance
Correct Score
Goal Line
Asian Hcap
Half Time Result
Clean Sheet
Win To Nil
Score in Both Halves
Half with Most Goals
1st Half Goal Line
1st Half handicaps
Half Time Score

Any other markets that members could add that they have found?

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Re: Premier League Alternative Betting Markets

Postby monkeytennis » Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:55 pm

One of the few football markets I still get involved in is win to nil. The difference in odds between a team to win and a team to win to nil can be quite astounding. Obviously plenty of punters will back Liverpool each week and you'd never back them to win to nil even if you really fancied them but teams like Spurs, Chelsea and even Man Utd can make really good win to nil bets many weeks of the season.

Take Man Utd at home to Hull in the next round of PL fixtures. They are just 2/11 to win the game and that price isn't going to appeal to many but 4/5 to win to nil looks a pretty decent bet without having put any research into it at this point.

And the week after solid Spurs are at home to goal shy Middlesbrough - 2/7 to win the game and 20/21 to win to nil.

I think football betting for many tends to be much more about simply finding bets that are likely to come in rather than really looking for value but I think one of the best places to find value is in the win to nil market. I'd certainly struggle to find any teams to win at a shade odds on in the next couple of weeks that are any more likely to do so than those two win to nil bets are to come in.

Obviously the value in win to nil isn't restricted to the Premier League, some of the foreign leagues in particular can offer great value (few better than Serie A).

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Re: Do You Bet On Premier League Alternative Betting Markets?

Postby nors » Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:27 pm

Can someone supply stats on win to nil in premier league are they available?

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