Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

[davidg3907]

The balance of the Bournemouth bet was matched @ 1.80.
I laid Wolves 4 pts @ 6.80
The Southampton balance was matched @ 1.56.

At this point of most seasons, there is a much clearer indication of what the outcome may be. With 9 teams still involved, just 5 points separate them. For that reason, I am levelling off many liabilities, in effect making it more of a traditional type of book. More trading will take place once a solid base has been formed upon which to build.

The downside of that is really large profits become less likely, but so too do the chances of suffering a massive loss.

[davidg3907]

Crystal Palace travel to face Arsenal tomorrow, but do so without a manager. They have not even had a shot on target in their last three matches, so it is difficult to see them returning anything other than empty-handed.
That would leave just 4 points separating the bottom nine clubs in the closest battle I can remember in the middle of March.

Leeds beat Wolves in the weekend's six-pointer, while Leicester, Southampton, and Everton picked up a useful point against top-11 opposition; something that Forest and Bournemouth could not do.

Latest bets.

Wolves. 10 pts @ 4.60. - matched
Wolves. 7 pts @ 4.80. - 5.6 pts matched
Leicester. 5 pts @ 5.90. - matched
Bournemouth. 15 pts @ 1.75. - matched @ 1.70
Southampton. 15 pts @ 1.60. - cancelled
Leeds. 5 pts @ 4.00. - matched
Leeds. 10 pts @ 4.80. - matched @ 4.60
Leeds 15 pts @ 4.00. - matched
Crystal Palace. 7.5 pts @ 7.80. - matched

Maybe the Palace bet was matched when odds drifted after it was announced that a new manager had been appointed ahead of the game with Leicester but then shortened when they saw who that manager was.

Next weekend is another international break. After that, most teams will still have eleven games remaining, so there will be a lot to play for with many twists and turns before a certain personage tests their vocal capacity.

I have also added these ahead of 6 midweek matches and a full programme at the weekend.

I missed out on backing Leicester when they took the lead at Palace, but managed to lay Nottm Forest 12.5 pts @ 2.08.
I have also backed West Ham 3 pts @ 9.20 to reduce one more liability.
I may do the same with Crystal Palace, but they have the easiest run-in of the 9 teams involved and are already top of this mini-league.

[davidg3907]

With arguably the most difficult run-in, Forest appeared quite backable for the drop before last night's encounter at Leeds. However, could their hosts actually be relied upon to pile misery on their visitors? Of that I was unsure, and seemed vindicated when Forest took the lead. I then tried to back them at the revised odds, but the odds at which they could be backed hardly drifted. By this morning they had shortened further, but as I can see them winning no more than 2 matches (probably one) and scrambling a couple of draws, relegation is becoming the reality that looked inevitable in the early season.

I have had to lower my profit expectancy overall and will be relying on some short-term trades over the next few matches.

Since last night, I have placed the following bets, all of which have been matched.

Nottm Forest 37.5 pts @ 1.74
Leicester 15 pts @ 2.90 and 10 pts @ 3.10
Bournemouth 15 pts @ 1.93
Crystal Palace 4 pts @ 15.00

[davidg3907]

That batch of trades is working better than today's collection which was based on Leicester finding a way to retrieve at least one point after going behind with a lot of time left.

Saturday.s list - all matched
Bournemouth 10 pts @ 2.74
Leicester 20 pts @ 2.10
Leeds 3 pts @ 8.00
Everton 10.5 pts @ 3.35
Everton 9.5 pts @ 3.25

Sunday's list.
Crystal Palace 2 pts @ 46.00 and 1 pt @ 30.00 - both matched
Everton 10 pts @ 3.35 - matched
Leeds 15 pts @ 4.60 - matched
Wolves 1.5 pts @ 12.50 - 1 pt matched @ 17.00 balance cancelled
West Ham 2.5 pts @ 11.50 - matched

That takes the Palace liability to a much higher level than any other, so a back bet of 0.5 pt may be placed at very long odds to compensate when required.

Monday's additional requests.
Leeds 7 pts @ 5.00
Bournemouth 5 pts @ 4.60 - matched
Crystal Palace 0.5 pt @ 250.00 - matched

I also laid Leicester for 15 pts @ 1.83 on the basis that losing to Man City would not affect their odds too badly, while a miracle would send shock waves through the market. Before that theory could be tested, Dean Smith was appointed and the odds dropped immediately.
If the fire and spirit that prevailed before the World Cup and when thrashing Wolves and Tottenham can be rekindled in time, Leicester would be fine. However, time is not on their side with just 7 matches remaining after the Man City game.

[davidg3907]

All of the above have been matched except for
Leeds 7 pts @ 5.00 - matched @ 4.50

Other bets placed over the past 24 hours.
Bournemouth 15 pts @ 17.00 - matched
Bournemouth 1.5 pts @ 16.00 - matched
Leicester 1.5 pts @ 1.95 - matched
Leicester 10.5 pts @ 2.00 - matched @ 1.98
Everton 10 pts @ 2.14 - matched

Crystal Palace confirm they will be at this level next season. Bournemouth were always booked for an easier run-in, but 3 pts against Spurs was obviously a bonus. I have laid them to around the maximum current liability.
The position with Everton and Leicester is an attempt to level off the consequences should either, or less likely both, get relegated.

[davidg3907]

Here are my up-to-date calculations for the season-end relegation spots. Please see March 11th post for an explanation.

47 45.42 46.21 Crystal Palace
39 43.03 41.02 Wolves
46 41.24 43.62 Bournemouth
40 40.52 40.26 West Ham
33 34.06 33.53 Leicester
31 35.30 33.15 Leeds
30 33.14 31.57 Nottm Forest
27 33.73 30.37 Everton
24 28.05 26.03 Southampton

As compared to the post from March 12th - as copied below.

39 41.22 40.11 Wolves
38 40.97 39.49 Crystal Palace
38 39.16 38.58 Leicester
37 38.40 37.70 West Ham
34 36.78 35.39 Bournemouth
33 37.06 35.03 Nottm Forest
32 35.11 33.56 Leeds
31 35.84 33.42 Everton
32 32.60 32.30 Southampton

No really big changes apart from Bournemouth and Leicester swapping places courtesy (in part) of their meeting at the King Power.

WARNING. This post may STILL self-destruct towards the end of May.

[davidg3907]

Ahead of what looked likely to be a busy Saturday, we had the lull before the storm. A highly entertaining affair at the Emirates saw Southampton lead 2-0 early on and 3-1 after 88 minutes only for the match to end in a draw with massive implications at both ends of the table. Leicester were briefly bottom of the table until Arsenal's very late equaliser. However, I think the team that suffered most was Nottingham Forest (assuming we count Southampton as a point gained rather than two points dropped).

Of course, a game like that is rife for trading if you can judge where the next goal is coming from and the effect that goal would have on the market. As they say, you win some and you lose some - but hopefully more of the former.

The status of bets placed this evening.

Southampton 15 pts @ 1.26 & 20 pts @ 1.18 - both matched
Nottm Forest 10 pts @ 1.29 - matched
Everton 15 pts @ 2.06 - matched
Leicester 15 pts @ 1.85 - matched
Leicester 10 pts @ 2.08 - cancelled as unmatched
Wolves 1 pt @ 60.00 - matched
Nottm Forest 15 pts @ 1.33 - matched

[davidg3907]

I was going to post this earlier today but got tied up.

With Bournemouth v West Ham later, if Bournemouth win they would vanish from the relegation scene while a win for West Ham would leave the requiring probably no more than another win to ensure their survival. What about the draw? Usually, a draw would help and hinder both sides. From a betting perspective, the market was not sufficiently liquid to make any worthwhile play, otherwise laying both teams would have been my choice.

I have laid Bournemouth at odds from 1.35 to 17.00 and backed them at odds from 1.44 to 4.60, leaving a nett lay of 151.5 pts @ 3.065.
I have laid West Ham at odds from 4.50 to 40.00 and backed them at odds from 5.80 to 40.00 for a nett lay of 29.5 pts @ 11.450.

I do not see any need to touch either if odds are not favourable.

West Ham duly won and move to 34 pts in 13th place with a game in hand (7 to play) over all the teams below them (6).
Bournemouth face a trip to Southampton followed by a home game against Leeds. There are other reasonable chances of picking up a win, even if that means a last-day showdown at Everton.

Both Wolves and West Ham are now expected to survive, while Bournemouth have a bit of work left to do.

The other 5 teams still have 6-pointers on the horizon so just about anything could happen.

I have backed Forest to finish bottom at what are becoming better odds, but this battle now seems to exclude Leicester. Due to being slightly adrift, Southampton remain favourites.

There are midweek matches including Leeds v Leicester on Tuesday, and Southampton v Bournemouth on Thursday.
The weekend games include Bournemouth v Leeds on Sunday, and Leicester v Everton on Monday,

[davidg3907]

I managed to back Leeds for 5 pts @ 3.30 but any more would have been at less favourable odds. Then Leicester equalised and that spoilt the fun.

[davidg3907]

The result at Forest last night was not exactly what I wanted to see unfold.

Some bits for trading when Forest took the lead. Unfortunately, Brighton could not rectify the situation.

Nottm Forest 10 pts @ 1.60
Leeds 20 pts @ 2.25 (nett)
Leicester 10 pts @ 2.50

[davidg3907]

The portfolio looked very healthy in the period before the World Cup. However, since then, the rise and fall of Forest and Bournemouth, Leicester's loss of form, and Wolves rising from the ashes has put a different complexion on things. While total disasters that became a possibility have largely been eradicated, it has meant that the most profitable angles suffered as a consequence. Some of those are now liabilities.

By the end of Monday, I'm sure the situation will be clearer, but for now, to safeguard against Southampton beating Bournemouth tonight, an insurance-type trade may be wise. Even if that turns out to be a losing trade, it would be easier and cheaper to rectify than if things go wrong without taking such action.
I have, therefore, laid Bournemouth 1.1 pts @ 34.00 with not much hope at the moment of any more at sensible odds. A further 0.9 pts was matched @ 42.00, probably during the period that Forest led at Brentford.

Southampton's hopes of survival would appear very bleak should they fail to win, with a trip to Forest and a last-day visit from Liverpool (if they have nothing to play for) providing the best chances of collecting more points.

The Bournemouth bet was matched and odds dropped before kick-off which alarmed me. Mixed feelings later as when Bournemouth scored and looked like winning, I was having to convince myself that I had done the right thing. When Southampton 'equalised', I knew I had done the right thing - then the goal was disallowed making Bournemouth virtually safe. I will attempt to lay Bournemouth for a small stake but without increasing my exposure. Brentford liabilities were released yesterday and now Fulham's which have boosted the balance.

It does now appear to be a genuine case of Southampton plus any two from four for the drop.

[davidg3907]

After a few more matches were played - please refer to earlier posts.

46 45.29 45.64 Crystal Palace
45 42.69 43.84 Bournemouth
40 42.70 41.35 Wolves
40 39.76 39.88 West Ham
31 34.35 33.67 Leicester
33 33.62 33.31 Nottm Forest
32 32.86 32.43 Leeds
29 32.89 29.94 Everton
25 27.21 26.11 Southampton