Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

[davidg3907]

The current value is + 29.56 pts.

Teams I have laid.
27 pts Brentford @ 5.985 (8.80 / 10.50)
7 pts Aston Villa @ 8.116 (8.80 / 9.20)
40 pts Wolves @ 4.685 (2.40 / 2.46)
17 pts Crystal Palace @ 8.965 (27.00 / 34.00)
50 pts Fulham @ 3.462 (11.50 / 12.00)
27 pts Bournemouth @ 1.586 (1.48 / 1.54)
4 pts West Ham @ 18.19 (25.00 / 28.00)
59 pts Leicester @ 4.244 (6.60 / 7.60)
8 pts Brighton @ 15.74 (75.00 / 110.00)
13.5 pts Southampton @ 2.809 (3.05 / 3.10) - includes matched bet below
17.55 pts Everton @ 6.389 (4.20 / 4.40)


Teams I have backed.
25 pts Nottingham Forest @ 2.188 (1.49 / 1.54)
47 pts Leeds @ 2.758 (6.20 / 7.20)


Teams I have traded out.


Teams deemed to be settled.
Manchester United -63.60 pts if relegated, + 1 pt if safe (650.00 / 1000.00)
Newcastle -85.17 pts if relegated + 2 pts if safe (500.00 / 800.00)

Open requests.
Southampton 11.5 pts @ 3.25 - matched
Wolves 20 pts @ 2.60
Leeds 20 pts @ 5.60
Everton 10 pts @ 3.90

[davidg3907]

Occasionally, things appear to happen for no obvious reason. There are several potential causes or explanations; they may or may not ever become clear. Such an event occurred around midnight when Everton's odds dropped from around what had been static at a shade over 4.00 to around 3.80. I had a request open to lay them for 10 pts @ 3.90, so that was swiftly swept away. The back odds continued to collapse while the lay odds moved much less. This enabled me to lay 25 pts @ 3.20 and when I placed a request for a further 15 pts @ 3.20, that evaporated too, but another 10 pts remained unmatched and I cancelled this once the odds drifted. I requested a back bet of 30 pts @ 3.60 (was 3.70 at the time). When I returned to the computer this morning, that had been matched.

Ahead of this weekend's last hoorah before the World Cup, I have requested the following bets.
Wolves 20 pts @ 2.60. It has been open a long while and odds have shortened significantly since - cancelled.
Leeds 20 pts @ 5.60. It has been open a long while and odds have drifted significantly since - cancelled.
Odds may need to be adjusted before or during the games.
Wolves 25 pts @ 2.20. - cancelled but will become interested in-play of 15.00 matches
Southampton 16.5 pts @ 3.10. - matched

Leeds 8 pts @ 8.40 - matched
Leeds 15 pts @' 7.00 - matched

[davidg3907]

I need a rest after today - so maybe there could be a World Cup to divert attention for 6 weeks.

Seems crazy, but 12th of November and wishing you a Merry Christmas. We can come to the Prosperous New Year later.

There is sure to be more action before the break with Wolves v Arsenal tonight and Brighton v Aston Villa and Fulham v Man Utd tomorrow. Tonight's other game between Newcastle and Chelsea is of little relevance to the relegation battle so the dust can settle a bit overnight.

Bets matched today.
Everton 15 pts @ 3.00
Brentford 0.5 pt @ 21.00 & 2.5 pts @ 24.00
Wolves 20 pts @ 2.18
Leeds 20 pts @ 6.20
Southampton 20 pts @ 2.88
Wolves 25 pts @ 2.375
Nottm Forest 5 pts @ 1.70
Leeds 5 pts @ 8.00

Open requests.

[davidg3907]

Around Christmas, we are usually halfway through the season but this year, we have only seen 146 matches (38.42%).

It is not surprising, therefore, that the position regarding likely relegation candidates is not as clear. However, despite results being about as bad for me as they could be, the portfolio is still + 10.16 pts.

The 'field' can be split into 3 categories.
1. Those that have performed ell enough to no longer be considered.
Man City Man Utd Arsenal Tottenham Newcastle Chelsea Liverpool and probably Brighton.
2. Those currently at the head of the market.
Nottm Forest Bournemouth Wolves Southampton and Everton.
3. The remainder.
Leicester Leeds Aston Villa Brentford Fulham West Ham and Crystal Palace.

As promised, an up-to-date assessment by team, along with any proposed action will be posted within the next week or so. The next round of matches features Everton v Wolves amongst others, so it is a case of being prepared.

To prevent the (more relevant) "Outcomes" table being too large to manage, it must be reduced somehow. Although changes may be required later, a convenient point is to take any two teams from group 2, permed with any other from group 2 or group3. I deliberately omitted a group 4 as it would be too easy to escape from.

At times, I may increase liabilities on some teams if by doing so, the overall exposure is not increased.

So, I have laid the following.
Crystal Palace 2 pts @ 30.00
West Ham 5 pts @ 12.50
Leicester 3 pts @ 11.00
Leeds 15 pts @ 6.40
Brentford 4 pts @ 18.00
Aston Villa 6 pts @ 13.50
Wolves 10 pts @ 1.95 & 10 pts @ 1.96

I have also reduced the liability on Southampton by backing them for 15 pts @ 2.98

[davidg3907]

Things have been fairly quiet on the trading front.

The major story to break involved the alleged gambling misdemeanours of Brentford's Ivan Toney. With a lengthy ban a distinct possibility, it seemed prudent to cut the liability and await developments. There was sure to be over-reaction, so I backed them for 10 pts @ 16. Their odds duly shortened but did not remain there. My belated attempts to lay them again at around 14 failed. I have had about 2.25 pts matched more recently @ 15.50 and have left the request open for more. The worst case scenario is that I may need to lay them at longer odds, but the danger of the bottom falling out of the market has gone away.

Opportunities existed for other trades while the spreads were wider than usual.
Leicester backed for 4 pts @ 12 and laid for 8 pts @ 8.60.
Everton backed for 20 pts @ 2.875 and laid for 20 pts @ 2.70.

This has obviously increased exposure on Betfair while improving the position on these teams. That means further opportunities will be limited without further funding. Current value +10.34 pts.

[davidg3907]

The balance of the Brentford bet has been matched. I am likely to continue trading this position wherever possible.

[davidg3907]

Everton. a further 15 pts backed @ 2.875 with 1.5 pts laid @ 2.80 and 13.5 pts @ 2.84.

[davidg3907]

Some housekeeping ahead of the Christmas and New Year fixtures.

I have backed Leicester for 3 pts @ 11. That is part trade, part liability reduction, and part exposure reduction (increasing usable funds in the account).

The Relegation Treble market is used to single out bets that either reduce the risk on certain outcomes or occasionally just look good value.
With Wolves and Everton being hefty liabilities in certain combinations only, I have backed these:-
Wolves Everton Forest 2 pts @ 41
Wolves Everton Southampton 1 pt @ 67
Wolves Everton Bournemouth 0.5 pt @ 151

[davidg3907]

The saga of Ivan Toney at Brentford continues, but as he has until Jan 4th to appeal, I assume he will be free to play until at least then. The additional 30 charges, however, did cause odds to drop. I am not keen to rush in as the position is quite manageable, but as ever in such situations, there may be scope for some trading if the odds fluctuate to any substantial degree.

I was a bit late getting involved again with Leeds ahead of their rather difficult fixtures over the holiday. Home to Man City and a trip to Newcastle don't seem to be a source of too many points at first glance; it may well see their odds dip even further if other results don't help them out.

I have backed Brentford for 6 pts @ 13 and Leeds for 16 pts @ 5.10, both with a view to trading.

[davidg3907]

I have backed Leeds for a further 14 pts @ 5.20 and Brentford for 5 pts @ 12.50
There is a request for a further 2 pts Brentford @ 12.00

I have laid Brentford for 7.5 pts @ 11.00.
There are requests to lay Leeds
10 pts @ 4.80 - matched
25 pts @ 4.60. This may be amended or cancelled prior to Monday's matches.

[davidg3907]

The 2 pts Brentford @ 12 was matched.
The 25 pts Leeds @ 4.60 - matched.

Other requests placed.

Brentford 1 pt @ 26. - optimistic.
Leeds 10 pts @ 5.10 - matched.

Bournemouth 15 pts @ 1.72 - matched
Nottm Forest 20 pts @ 1.70. - virtually all matched. Tidied up by backing 0.75 pts @ 1.78.

A decent profit is assured should both Bournemouth and Forest go down, so this is an insurance type option or trade. It particularly limits the damage should both escape.

I tried to back Leicester @ 14 to reduce liability. That was not a great success from early in their game against Newcastle.
An attempt at shorter odds will be made for about 2 pts.

[davidg3907]

A few bits of action with reasons as explained.

Open requests.

Fulham 3 pts @ 23 - general lay without increasing exposure - matched
Brighton 1 pt @ 120 - general lay without increasing exposure still quite optimistic odds but can't stretch much - matched
Leicester 2 pts @ 13 - to reduce exposure - matched
Leeds 10 pts @ 5.80 - possible trading - matched
Southampton 6 pts @ 2.12 - possible trading - matched
Brentford 1 pt @ 21 - trade to reduce liability - matched
Brentford 0.5 pt @ 34 - just ultra-cautious guarding a good position - matched