Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:55 pm

I will also back Brighton in the short term and have requested 2 pts @ 29.00.
They will need to adjust to a new manager at a time they are returning to a rather difficult fixture list. At worst, this will prove a low-cost trading option.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:10 am

The Brighton bet has been matched in full.
The Everton bet has now been matched in full.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:33 pm

I have entered another low-risk trade by backing Leeds for 3 pts @ 8.20.

They seem slightly too high and failing to beat Villa at home this weekend would see them shorten. A tough set of fixtures follows, culminating with a visit from Manchester City in round 17 on Boxing Day.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:35 pm

In line with trading policy, I have requested a 10 pt lay of Leeds @ 7.20 - part matched.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:57 pm

Quite a bit of action today, even if not all of it matched yet.

The only open bet at the start of the day was the back bet for Leicester 17 pts @ 3.40. Of that, 11 pts have been matched with the balance cancelled.

New bets.
Fulham 5 pts @ 5.80 - matched.
Wolves 10 pts @ 4.80 - cancelled.

Leicester 11 pts @ 3.10 - matched.
West Ham 3 pts @ 15 - cancelled.
Brighton 4 pts @ 32 - matched.
Leeds 10 pts @ 7.20 - matched.
Everton 4 pts @ 6.00 - matched.
Everton 5 pts @ 6.20 - matched.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:35 pm

Leicester.
I laid 0.9 pts @ 2.98 and traded 1.4 pts @ 3.25.
I also laid 2.5 pts @ 3.05
I want further trading, so have requested a 20 pt lay @ 3.00. - matched.

I have requested a back bet for Leicester (originally @ 3.40) but amended 10 pts @ 4.00 so it will only be matched if Leicester score first. I just got to the computer in time to miss Leicester's second goal, but in time to change the odds to 4.20 and subsequently 4.70 after the third goal. Hopefully, the second half will not be difficult to watch. The highest odds matched just before the break were 4.60 so I pitched 1 tick too high. Once the market settles, I take take a closer look, but things look much better than they did a few days ago whatever happens (within reason of course). :shock: :D
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:15 am

What a difference a day makes!

My trade on Leicester of 10 pts @ 4.70 has now been almost fully matched. Tidying up by laying coppers @ 4.20 has finalised it as 9.5 pts rather than 10.
The portfolio mid-point value shot up to + 27.82 pts.

Leicester were convincing winners last night, albeit against an under-performing Forest side. City's attacking unit did well but the defence was still opened up too easily too often. Only a combination of some weak finishing, hitting the post, some decent saves from Ward that will help his confidence, and some close offside decisions enabled them to keep a clean sheet.

I still have a large liability on Leicester, but at least it is now at manageable odds. Everton's win at Southampton eases concerns over that position, but Wolves now require some attention. I have backed them for 10 pts @ 4.00 to reduce that liability.

The other major liabilities are Brighton and Crystal Palace. The former is not a problem, but I would take a small trade on Palace should their odds drift back a bit higher.

Mini-series update.

Not much was learned from Southampton's side of things but Everton appear to have weathered what could have turned into a major storm. That now seems more like a summer breeze, and with more players being available after lay-offs, things look quite hopeful for a quick exit from the relegation scrap - particularly if they don't lose any players in January.

Leeds played half the match against Villa with 10 men and held out for a draw. Another borefest from Villa but both sides have the strength to pull clear if they get things right. However, Villa are making hard work of it.

Of the promoted sides, it is difficult at this stage to see Forest escaping. Bournemouth are in a stronger shape but need to take their opportunities if some teams pull clear.

Fulham can hardly afford too many efforts like the defeat at home to Newcastle. I took advantage of their fixture list to get a great position on them and I will not be throwing that away too easily. A full update will follow.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:44 am

The current value is + 28.93 pts.

Teams I have laid.
15 pts Brentford @ 5.65 (9.60 / 9.80)
10 pts Aston Villa @ 6.40 (7.80 / 8.40)
25 pts Wolves @ 5.88 (3.85 / 4.00)
15 pts Crystal Palace @ 8.76 (9.00 / 11.50)
2 pts Leeds @ 11.62 (5.90 / 6.00)
1.83 pts Newcastle @ 42.11 (50.00 / 85.00)
32 pts Fulham @ 1.291 (6.00 / 6.20)
20 pts Bournemouth @ 1.52 (1.60 / 1.63)
4 pts West Ham @ 18.19 (24.00 / 25.00)
43.50 pts Leicester @ 4.834 (4.30 / 4.40)
9 pts Brighton @ 17.33 (36.00 / 40.00)
25 pts Southampton @ 3.928 (3.40 / 3.70)
20 pts Everton @ 6.79 (5.70 / 5.90)


Teams I have backed.

21 pts Nottingham Forest @ 2.314 (1.44 / 1.45)


Teams I have traded out.



Teams deemed to be settled.

Manchester United -63.60 pts if relegated, + 1 pt if safe (140.00 / 260.00)
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:40 am

Further trading was possible overnight as Leicester's odds took a dip.

I have laid 12.1 pts @ 4.00 and 2.9 pts @ 3.90.
Most of this will be traded once odds return to something better.
I have requested 13.5 pts @ 4.40 - 2.1 pts matched so far

I am also trying to tidy up the Newcastle position if I can get matched at reasonable odds. Bits matched at 60 so overall lay is 2 pts @ 42.60.

I have also requested to lay Leeds for 15 pts @ 5.60. - now fully matched
This is probably for trading although the odds may drop before drifting. A couple of decent results or other teams not faring too well could see them drift sooner.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:31 pm

It all got a bit hectic courtesy of events at the Vitality.

The open bet on Leicester was partially matched before kick-off (7.5 pts @ 4.40) with the balance matched when Leicester had led for a while (6 pts @ 5.50) as I pitched at the right price for once. Then I decided to do even more trading and laid 5 pts @ 4.10 and another 6 pts @ 3.10 after each Bournemouth goal, and
another 9 pts @ 3.10 post match. I also traded part of the Bournemouth bet by backing them
for 6 pts @ 1.96. I have optimistically put in a request to trade 20 pts @ 4.50 but that will need to be amended. :D


Meanwhile, I laid Wolves for 5 pts @ 2.80 (usual over-reaction type odds) and have since requested 10 pts @ 4.10 (2.5 pts matched so far),

I backed Southampton for 5 pts @ 3.50 and laid 7 pts @ 3.30.

I want to trade a small part of the Brentford bet so ( a bit too late) requested 1 pt @ 9.80.

I have also requested 4 pts @ 6.20 as a trade on Leeds.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:17 pm

The Leeds bet from the above post was matched when they took the lead at Palace.
I have laid Southampton for 10 pts @ 3.20 as the odds are a shade cramped at look likely to drift enabling a trade to take place.
I have backed Leicester for 15 pts @ 3.25 (amended from above post). They were always going to drift if Fulham and Leeds lost, but the position dictated prudence with such a large liability. That is becoming manageable but further trading is still proposed where possible.

A full update will follow after Monday's battle between Forest and Villa.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:49 pm

A lot of transactions on Sunday too, but some of a trading, or preparing to trade, nature.

Leeds Laid 5 pts @ 4.10 & 4 pts @ 4.56 Backed 5 pts @ 4.50 & 3 pts @ 4.80 - trading
Nottm Forest. 6 pts lay @ 1.45. - I want Villa out of the equation, but good chance to trade this should Forest win. On the other hand, a win for Forest would see Villa shorten an make trading on other teams, particularly Leicester, Wolves, and Southampton a bit easier.
Southampton Backed 10 pts @ 3.50.
Leicester (matched) Laid 20 pts @ 3.25 & 12.5 pts @ 3.00 Backed 0.5 pt @ 3.80 (obviously wanted more).
Leicester back request 14.5 pts @ 3.20
Leicester back request 10 pts @ 3.25.
Brentford requester back bet of 5 pts @ 8.20. - matched
Wolves requests 7.5 pts @ 3.60 & 7.5 pts @ 4.10
Crystal Palace Back 1 pt @ 15.00 - matched.

I have backed Villa for 10 pts @ 8.50 with possible trading in mind depending on how the market reacted to Monday's draw with Forest.
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