Poisson Season 6

davidg3907
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Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:57 pm

Time for a new season, and of course that means a few tweaks before the season really settles in.

The major change this season is to how the odds for the correct score are calculated To some extent this will be monitored for the first few weeks.

Due to a cataract operation and being 'advised' to watch TV and the computer monitor as little as possible,, there may be no suggestions for the first two weeks.

Last season, the best performing sections from previous years continued to lead the way, so I will not be making massive changes that could upset what is already working better than the rest. Remember that my aim has always been to highlight value in the areas suggested by the program - NOT to try improving something else at the expense of it.

New teams, new players and stats taken from previous seasons (possibly in a lower division) mean that extreme caution should be taken in the first few weeks.

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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:12 pm

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Apologies for not checking that Excel did something I knew could happen.

Away odds for Leicester, Everton, and Man Utd should read 4.20 6.27 2.07. Replacing line 4 with line 15 is not foolproof when the original is 24 as it converts to 215 if not looking! :oops:

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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:01 pm

Early days and far too soon to draw any real confidence, but already the value appears to be in the 1X2 and win-0 markets, particularly with home teams.

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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:55 pm

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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:25 pm

The current display format will revert to the full format after 6 matches if I feel no further tweaks are required; otherwise, it will be after 8 matches.

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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Sep 02, 2022 3:19 pm

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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:29 pm

Some changes are underway for week 9, primarily amended season weightings. As the average goals per match is up slightly, this will increase forecasts in the short term before settling down if the trend reverses.

I propose making the "Exact" table earn its living too. Predicting which teams will score more than two goals is challenging; deciding just how many goals is not part of the plan. So far (end of last season and the beginning of this), they are showing good signs, even allowing for the freak results during this part of all seasons. The accuracy (or lack thereof) in predictions of 0, 1, and 2 goals, will be the key to its success.

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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 8:26 am

As we head into the international break, the first 8 matches of the season have become either 6 or 7. However, as I think that I've cleared all bugs that creep in while changing from one season's sheets to the next, the full displays will appear after then.

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Apparently, one escaped. The Everton v West Ham win-0 odds appeared in the Man Utd v Leeds row. I only noticed it myself when entering the scores.
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Re: Poisson Season 6

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:04 pm

Hopefully, we can now look forward to the main part of the season, where results (in theory at least) begin to settle down.

Suggestions for week 9. The (historically) better-performing markets are in bold green type. These may be amended should the new tweaks so indicate.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Crystal Palace Fulham Leeds Leicester Liverpool Southampton
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Tottenham Man Utd
Draws (>1.20*odds). Crystal Palace
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Arsenal Bournemouth Fulham Southampton West Ham
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Arsenal Bournemouth Fulham Leeds Leicester Southampton West Ham
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Fulham Leicester
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Bournemouth Crystal Palace West Ham
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Arsenal Liverpool Man City
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Crystal Palace Leeds Leicester Liverpool Southampton West Ham
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Tottenham Everton
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Arsenal Fulham Leeds Liverpool Man City

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