Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

davidg3907
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Tue May 10, 2022 8:37 am

I have placed a 1 pt back request for Everton @ 18 - just a few coppers matched so far.
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davidg3907
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Wed May 11, 2022 10:26 am

Burnley's defeat at home to Villa is not what was required. They now face the same opponents away after their trip to Tottenham on Saturday. They may play their final game at home to Newcastle knowing that only a win would suffice.

Therefore, it seems prudent to "balance the books" even further.
I have requested to lay Leeds 10 pts @ 2.18. - fully matched.
I have requested to back Burnley for 15 pts @ 2.14. - fully matched.

The Everton bet remains open for the moment. Those few coppers matched @ 18 were traded out @ 15 to keep figures tidy!
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logaloga2
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby logaloga2 » Fri May 13, 2022 10:41 am

tbh prefer burnley to go down. see leeds and everton as way more ambitious and better youth development.

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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby logaloga2 » Fri May 13, 2022 10:41 am

tbh prefer burnley to go down. see leeds and everton as way more ambitious and better youth development.

davidg3907
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Wed May 18, 2022 9:23 pm

Many thanks to all followers of the Relegation and/or the Poisson threads.

Reached 12000 again on Relegation and just a few short of 3000 on Poisson does make me feel as though the effort is worthwhile - especially when there are no grumbles or complaints! :D
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sat May 21, 2022 9:40 pm

I have placed what may well turn out to be the final bet of the season - 10 pts lay of Leeds @ 1.40.

The portfolio stands at +88 pts if Leeds are relegated and +69 pts if they survive at the expense of Burnley.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sun May 22, 2022 9:01 am

[b]A review of critical points from the last few months.[/b]

From Feb 7th
The relegation battle is, and may remain so even with the protagonists swapping categories, based on these three groups. They are the teams directly involved, those waiting to replace those directly involved, and those will only become involved if having an incredibly bad series of results themselves.
The first group is the bottom four, of which plenty has been said. The third 'group' is realistically only Southampton and Crystal Palace, which leaves the middle group of Everton, Leeds, and Brentford.

Although my tissues still only have one point between them at the end of the season, there is a difference when I do a preliminary match by match rating that I normally leave until around the last ten matches. That sees Leeds falling some way short of the other two, albeit that those calculations have yet to be checked (missed matches, figures in wrong column etc), but it does seem nonsensical for Leeds to be the outsider of the three teams.

From Feb 27th
I had been backing Leeds without being certain whether it was intended primarily as a trade or not. They have had a tough run of fixtures while short of several top players. The last 11 games included playing each of the current top 7 in the table, so points were going to be scarce. Can they get players back in time? Will their odds shorten further in the next couple of weeks, or have they bottomed?
Brentford's early season form is becoming a distant memory. Points are on the board but they have fewer games left than any of the others.
I have modified my estimate of points required to avoid relegation. Any team failing to reach 36 points going into the last round of matches is likely to be fighting for survival, if not already doomed.
Leeds' next match is at the King Power; will they have a new manager in situ by then? They do have some respite before a tough-looking run-in.

From April 9th.
For most of the first half of the season, I had a prediction that 35 pts would mean relegation and 37 safety.
When Leeds and Brentford joined the struggle, it seemed that 34 may suffice for safety. I said at the time that I could not envisage Norwich reaching 34 points but panicked slightly when they won back to back matches, particularly as those points were taken against Everton and Watford.

From April 22nd.
Ahead of my effort, NORS posted the following
If forced to have a bet on David at this late stage ahead of the weekend who gets relegated with Norwich and Watford

It could be worth backing Leeds ahead of Burnley v Wolves, if Burnley avoid defeat I can see the Leeds price becoming much shorter with Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea after Palace away on Monday for them.
Burnley 1.8
Everton 2.5
Leeds 8.0

My effort.
Both Norwich and Watford play tomorrow. Defeats would not have any significant effect on the market. A win for either, particularly Watford would send shockwaves through the market with all other teams shortening. I have therefore chosen to back Leeds ahead of those games for 8 pts @ 8.00 with a request pending for 6 pts @ 8.20.

From April 26th.
Leeds' remaining matches are
HOME Man City
AWAY Arsenal
HOME Chelsea
HOME Brighton
AWAY Brentford
They may not take any points from the first 3 matches BUT any that they do will have a dramatic effect on their odds. Defeats are a different matter. It is Burnley and Everton that will then control them. Even that can depend on the running order for each round.

Last week, Everton benefitted from Leicester fielding a side with 7 or 8 changes from their European XI and will probably do so again for the reverse fixture on May 8th, less than 72 hours after the semi-final second leg in Rome.
That will be Leicester's 4th game in 10 days with Norwich to play 3 days later. There are bound to be wholesale changes for the Everton game - especially if City overcome Roma to reach the final.

Burnley always had the easiest run-in (on paper anyway) but until recently were not playing well enough to take advantage of it.

From April 27th.
My Poisson/tissues estimate these final totals which roughly tie in with current odds.
Leeds 37.97 Burnley 36.39 Everton 36.20

My match predictions disagree - but that is based on Everton picking up 3 or 4 pts from away matches at an already relegated by then Watford, and a below full strength Leicester side with other things on their mind.
Everton 36/37 Leeds and Burnley 35.

Leeds' hopes almost certainly revolve around their last two games which are against mid-table sides.

Through this thread, I endeavour to encourage others to try their hand at trading.

As can be seen from way back at the beginning of the season, it is possible to change your stance monthly, weekly, daily, match by match, or even during matches without ever endangering your entire stake.
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nors
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby nors » Sun May 22, 2022 5:20 pm

It has been an interesting read throughout the season, you have stayed with this and ended with good profits.

We can all see the ups and downs of football allowing profitable trading opportunities.

Am already looking forward to next season. :win:
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davidg3907
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sun May 22, 2022 5:24 pm

A quick check on the RTs found a slight error where Burnley had not been updated.
The last figures should have read Everton +90 pts Leeds +88 pts Burnley +63 pts.

Now to update all records and prepare for next season.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Wed May 25, 2022 5:16 pm

A final audit showed a profit of 65.49 points

Roll on next season's fixture list on June 16th.
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