Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

davidg3907
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:11 pm

The bets placed above and then cancelled were at best optimistic, and at worst, a bit cheeky. However, they were only going to get matched if disadvantageous to me.

A few bits, mainly to stabilise the head of the market, while taking some pressure off the Norwich and Burnley positions
Watford 5 pts @ 1.66 - matched
Watford 5 pts @ 1.59 - matched
Watford 5 pts @ 1.62 -
Burnley 10 pts @ 2.58 - matched
Norwich 14 pts @ 1.22 - matched
Norwich 16 pts @ 1.23 - matched
Leeds 5 pts @ 7.20 - matched
Burnley 1 pt @ 2.46 - matched quick trade
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kikoma
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby kikoma » Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:05 am

davidg3907 wrote:
> A flurry of late goals at Goodison Park turned a reasonable weekend into a
> disastrous one. An immediate over-reaction in Watford's odds predictably
> followed, but I could not get on at the odds I wanted so no action was
> taken.> > There are some intriguing matches this weekend (Source: https://www.sportwette.net). > After struggling to beat a depleted Leeds side, Southampton's odds drifted > wildly today. Safety dictates that I try to grab a bit of the action at
> around 10.50 prior to their game at Watford. > Leeds travel to Norwich, who will be keen to notch their first win. Still
> well below strength, Leeds may struggle. In-play bets are a possibility, > but unlikely anything before.
> Newcastle keep flattering to deceive, but if I can lay a bit more at 2.70 > or so, then I will do so.
> Crystal Palace may not be getting the results they deserve. Hence their > odds don't really seem to know In which direction to travel. Prospects
> don't look good this week at the Etihad, but it may give further clues as > to what to expect in the easier set of fixtures that follow.
> The match that could have the biggest impact this week sees the fourth
> member of the fringe club, Brentford, away to Burnley. Defeat for the home
> side would see them possibly looking at an uncomfortable gap above them.
> For that reason, I still aim to trade a bit of the position even if that
> turns out poorly for me. I laid Brentford initially, but have been
> impressed with them and converted that to a traded out position. That
> effectively means I want both teams to win, and that isn't going to happen.
> I will endeavour to back Brentford, knowing that would be an easy cheap
> trade should they win, while Burnley's odds would drift significantly
> should they win. A draw may not be a bad result for Brentford, but I have
> yet to see them play for a draw - especially against a team they may fancy
> their chances of beating.
>
> Requested bets.
> Burnley's bet now hoping to get around 2.00 rather than 2.20 or will cancel
> (again!)

Thanks for the update.
> effectively means I want both teams to win, and that isn't going to happen.
:-) That sounds weird and is ofc never going to happen

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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby jamiedavies023 » Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:37 pm

My latest Premier League Projections;

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davidg3907
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:36 pm

Pre-season, my tissues arrived at a total of 1043 points for the season. It is always between 1040 and 1045 due to programming the odds. It is now down to 1040 due to the first update after week 7.
1055 points assumes 85 draws over 38 rounds of matches and we have seen 30 in the first 11 rounds so I am still expecting more than another 55 from 27 rounds. After 7 rounds the spread points from a couple of companies had gone down only slightly to 1054.50 from their original mid-points of 1055.00 (i.e. 60 - 61.5 has mid of 60.75) but I have not checked since.
I too have 34 as relegation and 36 as safe but it is early days. Main difference between our figures is that I have Brentford a couple of points below Villa rather than 7 ahead.
I will next update the tissues around Christmas for the second half of the season; until then, the overall totals are only subject to changes caused by actual results.

P.S. Doing tissues for all 380 matches in the two days after fixtures are released is fraught with perils, but that doesn't stop it being great fun. I can never see the final 'table' until I have completed the last match. This ensures there is no 'catching up' if a team seems too high or too low. Another reason for rushing it slightly (still not a fast process) is to avoid being unduly influenced by the markets.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby jamiedavies023 » Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:11 pm

My model spitting out 1040 projected total, I've inflated to 1055 based on the last 4 seasons weighted;

2017/18 (10%) 1041
2018/19 (20%) 1069
2019/20 (30%) 1048
2020/21 (40%) 1057

I rate teams over a 24 match period, with the oldest game being replaced by the most recent - obviously promoted teams are a bit different, but all ratings are dynamic and updated after each gameweek.

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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:52 am

Southampton have taken 10 pts from their last 4 games without being over-impressive.

Those 4 games were against teams in 15th to 18th place in the current table. The next match is away to the bottom club, Norwich, who just had their first win of the season, away at Brentford. In all, 4 of Southamptons next 6 games are away from home, and are followed by 3 difficult looking games.

While Southampton may win at Norwich, there is scope for the odds not to drift much more in view of the fixture list up to Christmas. As a medium-term bet, I have backed them for 3 pts @ 21.00.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:04 pm

I have since taken a further 4 pts @ 21.00 in the expectation of Southampton not picking up too many points in their next 8 scheduled matches.

Watford have shortened too much for my bet to be matched so now cancelled. That leaves an overall position of 34.5 pts @ 2.289
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:21 am

It was a quite eventful weekend with not too many events going my way.
Newcastle v Brentford was an opportunity for one of the teams I had laid to pick up 3 points but instead settled for 1 each which did little to help either.
Norwich v Southampton involved two teams that were 'traded out' for a profit. Most of the Southampton stake is for trading, and as I pointed out, I chose to do this ahead of the Norwich game as defeat in this match would mean their odds would tumble ahead of their more difficult games while a victory in a game many expected them to win would have had less effect on their odds, Southampton had not been convincing when beating Aston Villa so it is difficult to assess the value of Norwich's win. They face a daunting run of fixtures so may struggle to climb far in the near future at least.
Southampton will hopefully get closer to the drop zone before picking up too many points.
Burnley v Crystal Palace seemed to confirm that the home side are perhaps better than their league position indicates. The position with them in the portfolio shows that it is good if they go down along with Norwich and Watford but dreadful in any combination with Newcastle. I am taking steps to equalise the more likely eventualities.
Leeds showed enough against Tottenham to suggest they will get away from the danger area once they can field a full-strength team.
Watford have been poor so their victory over Man Utd can't be taken at face value. Only time will tell how far they have progressed. I've backed them further but their odds then took a nosedive before returning to around 2.00. They are another team heading into a daunting set of fixtures so points may be hard to come by for a while.

Bets struck and matched today.
Leeds 3.5 pts @ 5.30
Wolves 2 pts @ 34.00
Leeds 1 pt @ 5.50
Newcastle 29 pts @ 1.94
Watford 25.5 pts @ 1.98
Awaiting matching.
Burnley 19 pts @ 2.14.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby jamiedavies023 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:57 am

Latest projections...

Image

The chat last week about season total points got me thinking, whilst i was using a weighted average of the last 4 seasons, this number was static. I have since adapted this number to be more dynamic; over the last 1000 matches, 23% have ended in draws, from this i can determine that 2.77 points are awarded per game, this number will be multiplied by games remaining and added to points awarded so far to arrive at a new adjusted points total. For example, this season 328 points have been won so far, 260 matches remaining multiplied by 2.77 = 721 points, add the two together to get 1049.

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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:14 am

Watford's next 3 matches are Leicester away followed by visits from Chelsea and Man City. They may travel home with something from Leicester, but if they don't, then no points from 3 games is the most likely outcome. Defeat at Leicester would cut their odds ahead of the more difficult games, so I have backed them for 20 pts @ 1.96. Should their odds shorten before Sunday, I will trade at least part of that but otherwise, let it run for a while.

The last round of matches saw the portfolio value go from +8 pts to -40 pts so a better set of results would be appreciated.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:10 am

Midway through round 13 and a very slight improvement in the portfolio even though the market has compacted further.
Both Aston Villa and Norwich are undefeated under their new managers, and despite still no win on the board, there are possible green shoots of recovery at Newcastle.
Leeds remain without the services of Patrick Bamford, and are heading in the wrong direction.
Did Brentford simply flatter to deceive in the early part of the campaign?

Bets placed that may be amended before kick-off but will be cancelled then if not matched.
Burnley 16 pts @2.28 - matched
Watford 20 pts @ 2.04 - matched
Crystal Palace 2.5 pts @ 16.00 - matched
Watford 30 pts @ 1.99 - 3.5 pts matched, balance cancelled
Burnley 20 pts @ 2.20 - cancelled
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:38 pm

As the relegation picture becomes clearer, it can be more useful to post the "Outcomes" table. Obviously, not all combinations can be shown as even with just 14 teams that is 364 lines. The market has been showing a breakaway of 4 teams although Leeds and Brentford remain closer to them than they would prefer.

For the sake of this table (it can be modified if or when necessary), I have taken any 2 from Norwich, Watford, Newcastle, and Burnley with another from those four or one of Leeds, Brentford, Southampton, Aston Villa, Everton, and Crystal Palace.

Select any combination on the left with another option from the header row to give the overall figure for that 'treble'.

Image

The usual trading positions will also be updated periodically until the "Outcomes" table suffices.
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