Poisson Season 5

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Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:47 am

The usual caveat with early-season posts.

The data for the promoted teams will (either fully or in part) be taken from previous seasons in the Championship converted by an algorithm to make it more robust.

Last season, the experiment of putting the Poisson figures through a further process to reflect the ACTUAL spread of goals scored using a realistic number of instances worked quite well.
Example. Poisson may indicate that a team would average 1.5 goals in a particular match. it then creates a distribution curve for 0-9 goals.
That may read something like 14-28-36-12-6-2-1-1-0-0
New method. The figure of 1.5 (maybe 1.49 to 1.51 to increase sample size) is checked to see how many goals were scored historically.
Those results will show a different distribution.

During the first international break, I hope to make some changes to the display too.

Image

Suggestions for week 1.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Brentford Burnley Tottenham Watford
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Leeds
Draws (>1.20*odds). Man Utd
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Everton Man Utd
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25).[/color] Burnley Everton Leicester Man Utd
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Chelsea Leicester Man Utd Newcastle Watford
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Burnley Everton
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Chelsea Newcastle Tottenham
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Burnley Everton
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Liverpool
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Leicester Man Utd Newcastle Tottenham Watford

Last season, the categories that performed best were those highlighted in GREEN text.
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davidg3907
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:19 am

The usual caveat with early-season posts.

The data for the promoted teams will (either fully or in part) be taken from previous seasons in the Championship converted by an algorithm to make it more robust.

There is no value recorded in the away column for Man City v Norwich as Mr Poisson is convinced that Man City will score for the first time in 4 attempts in competitive matches. :D

Image

Suggestions for week 2.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Arsenal Crystal Palace Southampton West Ham
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Newcastle Watford Tottenham
Draws (>1.20*odds).
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Aston Villa Brighton Crystal Palace
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25).[/color] Aston Villa Brighton Crystal Palace Leeds Liverpool West Ham
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Arsenal Aston Villa Leeds Liverpool West Ham
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Brighton
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Man City Southampton Wolves
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Arsenal Brighton West Ham
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Everton
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Aston Villa Crystal Palace Leeds Southampton West Ham Wolves

Last season, the categories that performed best were those now highlighted in GREEN text.
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:18 am

The usual caveat with early-season posts.

Also, the data for the promoted teams will (either fully or in part) be taken from previous seasons in the Championship converted by an algorithm to make it more robust.

Image

Suggestions for week 3.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Liverpool Tottenham West Ham
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Everton Leeds Arsenal Southampton Leicester Man Utd
Draws (>1.20*odds).
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Aston Villa Liverpool
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Aston Villa Liverpool West Ham
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Newcastle West Ham
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Brighton
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Liverpool Man City Norwich
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Aston Villa Liverpool Tottenham
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Everton Man Utd
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Burnley Liverpool Newcastle Norwich Wolves

Last season, the categories that performed best were those now highlighted in GREEN text.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:33 pm

The usual caveat with early-season posts.

Also, the data for the promoted teams will (either fully or in part) be taken from previous seasons in the Championship converted by an algorithm to make it more robust.

After getting used to matches on an almost daily basis, the new normal is bad enough without the international breaks. :D

Image

Suggestions for week 4.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Crystal Palace Everton Leeds Southampton
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Norwich Man City Wolves
Draws (>1.20*odds).
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Arsenal Crystal Palace
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Arsenal Crystal Palace Southampton
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Leeds Southampton
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Arsenal Brentford
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Crystal Palace Everton Leicester
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Arsenal Crystal Palace Everton Man Utd Southampton
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Aston Villa Wolves
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Chelsea Crystal Palace Leeds Leicester Watford

Last season, the categories that performed best were those now highlighted in GREEN text.
LAYING Taking it further
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FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
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davidg3907
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:56 pm

The usual caveat with early-season posts.

Also, the data for the promoted teams will (either fully or in part) be taken from previous seasons in the Championship converted by an algorithm to make it more robust.

After getting used to matches on an almost daily basis, the new normal is bad enough without the international breaks. :D

Image

Suggestions for week 5.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Aston Villa Burnley Tottenham West Ham
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Leicester Watford Brentford
Draws (>1.20*odds).
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79).
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Aston Villa Burnley Liverpool Norwich
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Aston Villa Brighton Liverpool Newcastle Tottenham Wolves
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Burnley Norwich
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Man City Newcastle West Ham
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Aston Villa
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Leicester Watford Brentford
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Aston Villa Brighton Burnley Newcastle Tottenham West Ham Wolves

Last season, the categories that performed best were those now highlighted in GREEN text.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:41 pm

The usual caveat with early-season posts.

Also, the data for the promoted teams will (either fully or in part) be taken from previous seasons in the Championship converted by an algorithm to make it more robust.

The start of the season has been much better than in previous years. That is great news in one way, and a fine boost to confidence in the adjustments made over the past couple of years. As football returns to some sort of normality, it will be interesting to see how much improvement can be made in the coming months.

When I started this project, the ethos was that I would follow the best parts of it, and ignore the poor performing parts. This seemed more logical than trying to improve the under-performing parts at the risk of an adverse effect on the bits that didn't need tweaking. That remains the case, and why the better performing sectors are highlighted in green.

Image

Suggestions for week 6.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Brentford Chelsea Crystal Palace Man Utd Southampton
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Norwich West Ham Burnley
Draws (>1.20*odds). Brentford Leicester
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Leicester Man Utd Southampton
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Arsenal Chelsea Crystal Palace Everton Leicester Man Utd Southampton Watford
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Brentford Everton
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Arsenal Crystal Palace Leicester Southampton
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Chelsea Leeds Man Utd
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Arsenal Chelsea Crystal Palace Everton Southampton Watford
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). West Ham Newcastle
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Arsenal Brentford Chelsea Leeds Leicester Man Utd
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:08 am

The usual caveat with early-season posts.
Early season +/- and data will be updated before the main season commences with week 8.

When I started this project, the ethos was that I would follow the best parts of it, and ignore the poor performing parts. This seemed more logical than trying to improve the under-performing parts at the risk of an adverse effect on the bits that didn't need tweaking. That remains the case, and why the better performing sectors are highlighted in green.


Image

Suggestions for week 7.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Brighton Chelsea Liverpool Tottenham West Ham
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Norwich Leicester Watford Newcastle
Draws (>1.20*odds). Leeds
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Burnley Leeds Tottenham Wolves
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Brighton Burnley Leeds Man Utd Tottenham West Ham Wolves
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Crystal Palace
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Brighton Leeds Wolves
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Chelsea Liverpool
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Burnley Man Utd Tottenham West Ham Wolves
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Arsenal Leicester
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Chelsea Liverpool
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:06 pm

Early season +/- and data will be updated before the main season commences with week 8.

When I started this project, the ethos was that I would follow the best parts of it, and ignore the poor performing parts. This seemed more logical than trying to improve the under-performing parts at the risk of an adverse effect on the bits that didn't need tweaking. That remains the case, and why the better performing sectors are highlighted in green.

Image

Suggestions for week 8.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Aston Villa Brentford Leicester Man City Norwich
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Crystal Palace West Ham Leeds
Draws (>1.20*odds). Brentford
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Aston Villa
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Arsenal Aston Villa
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Arsenal Brentford Leicester Southampton
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Aston Villa Norwich
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Man City Newcastle
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Aston Villa
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). West Ham Man Utd Leeds
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Arsenal Brentford Everton Man City Newcastle Southampton
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:28 pm

When I started this project, the ethos was that I would follow the best parts of it, and ignore the poor performing parts. This seemed more logical than trying to improve the under-performing parts at the risk of an adverse effect on the bits that didn't need tweaking. That remains the case, and why the better performing sectors are highlighted in green.

Image

Suggestions for week 9.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Arsenal Crystal Palace Man Utd Southampton
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Leicester Watford Tottenham
Draws (>1.20*odds). Brighton Leeds
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Chelsea Everton
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Arsenal Chelsea Crystal Palace Everton Leeds Southampton
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Arsenal
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Chelsea Everton Leeds Southampton
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Brentford Man Utd West Ham
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Arsenal Crystal Palace Everton Southampton
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Man City Wolves Tottenham
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Arsenal Brentford Crystal Palace West Ham
LAYING Taking it further
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:31 am

When I started this project, the ethos was that I would follow the best parts of it, and ignore the poor performing parts. This seemed more logical than trying to improve the under-performing parts at the risk of an adverse effect on the bits that didn't need tweaking. That remains the case, and why the better performing sectors are highlighted in green.

The (long overdue) update on wks 1-7 showed excellent results until severely tarnished in the final week.
Homes -5.31
Aways +2.27
Draws +5.15
Home to nil +3.15
Away to nil +6.83

Historically, Homes had been much better. An amendment to the program designed to disadvantage home teams may have had more effect than anticipated. The new way of assessing goals is based on the previous outcomes of teams with that calculated average.

Image

Suggestions for week 10.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Aston Villa Leicester Newcastle Norwich Watford
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Man Utd
Draws (>1.20*odds). Newcastle
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Leicester Watford
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Leicester Liverpool Watford Wolves
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Aston Villa Liverpool Norwich
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Burnley Leicester Wolves
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Man City Tottenham
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Aston Villa Burnley Leicester Wolves
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Brentford Man Utd Everton
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Aston Villa Leicester Man City Newcastle Norwich Tottenham Watford
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:33 am

Image

Suggestions for week 11.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Crystal Palace Man Utd West Ham
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Watford Norwich Newcastle Tottenham Leicester Aston Villa
Draws (>1.20*odds).
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Brighton Chelsea Crystal Palace Southampton
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Arsenal Brentford Brighton Chelsea Crystal Palace Everton Southampton
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Arsenal Everton Southampton
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Chelsea
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Leeds West Ham
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Brentford Crystal Palace
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Tottenham Leicester Aston Villa
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Everton Leeds Man Utd Southampton West Ham
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Re: Poisson Season 5

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:15 pm

I had updated the ratings prior to the previous round and was fairly happy with the end product even if results didn't go my way. Some further tests to the current methods this week, with the standout being Leicester v Chelsea.
It is most unusual for my figures to throw up something as weird as they have here, so I back-checked the programming. While I shall not be subjecting my life savings to take the "value" on Leicester, I did find that of 365 instances where the away team had an adjusted average of between 0.87 and 1.07 goals (Chelsea rated 0.97 in the old style) only managed 0.83 in real life. Leicester were similarly downgraded from 1.58 to 1.15. This actually pushed Leicester from odds-on to odds-against, but still way out of line. It also suggested a very low-scoring game - and that surprised me too. However, this can be explained to some degree by Leicester's 5 home games this season having produced 14 goals (1-1-4-6-2) with Chelsea's 5 away games seeing just 11 (2-2-3-1-3).

Image

Suggestions for week 12.

Home wins (>1.10*odds). Aston Villa Leicester Man City Norwich Watford
Away wins (>1.10*odds). Crystal Palace Arsenal Brentford Leeds West Ham
Draws (>1.20*odds). Leicester
Draws narrow(+0.24 to +0.79). Aston Villa Leicester Tottenham
Draws wider(+0.08 to +1.25). Aston Villa Leicester Liverpool Norwich Tottenham
Over 2.5 goals (50-65%) and Ave Goals (2.40-3.00). Liverpool Newcastle Norwich Tottenham Wolves
Under 2.5 goals (<47%) and Ave Goals (<2.40). Burnley Leicester
Over 2.5 goals (Av G >2.90) AND Over 3.5 goals (>35%). Man City Watford
Home to nil (>24% and odds >100%). Aston Villa Leicester Newcastle Norwich
Away to nil (>17% and odds >100%). Crystal Palace Brentford Leeds West Ham
BTTS YES (>56% depending on value). Aston Villa Liverpool Norwich Watford Wolves
LAYING Taking it further
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