All they need do now is beat Norwich tomorrow.
I also want to back Burnley but may have to wait a while as anything under 2.40 has little appeal at this stage.
Even without Ward-Prowse's services in the short term, they should be picking up points and a couple of wins.
I've laid 5 pts @ 5.70
Newcastle's drift meant the portfolio went from -5.72 pts to + 29.80 pts without a ball being kicked in anger. Sunderland fans may have kicked a few things though.
Down to business, and it seems prudent to take a slight hit on Burnley, who continue to disappoint. At the same time, the Newcastle liability can be reduced without a serious effect on the overall position.
I have requested
19 pts Burnley @ 2.12
10 pts Newcastle @ 3.50
Possibly the worst affected is Burnley who already occupy one of the relegation places. Their odds have collapsed so I will not be backing them at those odds at present. There are some difficult fixtures lying in wait for them over the next month or so. Although their odds are likely to drop further in that period, any surprise result they manage would have a significant effect ahead of an easing in the fixtures.
A full update of the portfolio will follow once the market settles.
Teams I have backed.
28 pts Brentford @ 3.33 ( 12.50 / 13.00 )
30 pts Crystal Palace @ 2.98 ( 4.40 / 4.50 )
25 pts Watford @ 2.54 ( 1.75 / 1.77 )
24.5 pts Norwich @ 1.93 ( 1.26 / 1.28 )
4 pts Brighton @ 20.05 ( 32.00 / 38.00 )
Teams I have laid.
40 pts Newcastle @ 3.69 ( 3.70 / 3.80 )
20 pts Leeds @ 10.35 ( 9.00 / 9.40 )
16.5 pts Aston Villa @ 12.09 ( 25.00 / 28.00 )
29 pts Wolves @ 6.71 ( 10.50 / 12.00 )
51.25 pts Burnley @ 2.33 (1.94 / 1.97 )
35 pts Southampton @ 4.48 ( 5.30 / 5.40 )
12 pts West Ham @ 13.67 ( 50.00 / 70.00 )
4 pts Arsenal @ 45.25 ( 80.00 / 170.00 )
Teams I have traded out.
Everton +22.20 pts if relegated +0.5 pts if safe ( 70.00 / 130.00 )
Teams that are deemed to be settled.
Requests awaiting matching
Everton 0.5 pts @ 180.00
Burnley 19 pts @ 2.04
19 pts back Burnley @ 2.16
15 pts lay Brentford @ 10.50
The Brentford bet has been matched.
I have requested a further 10 pts lay of Brentford @ 10.00.
Burnley could not be expected to get anything from their trip to the Etihad but escaped relatively unscathed. I am not really bothered whether the bet gets matched or not. If I could lay them further at the right price, I may do so.
Brentford, and I do not mean this disparagingly, continue to play well without looking like a good Premier League side. Even so, their odds dropping from 14.50 this morning to 10.00 / 10.50 this evening is inexplicable. I'm sure they will improve during the season - and there are plenty of teams that do not look as good even at this stage. They are only 8 games into their first taste of Premier League football, and they should adapt quite well. I am not prepared to let their odds drift again before taking action as they have several winnable matches on the horizon.
This will leave me with an all red position, but there is no law against trading again later. If they do hit a very rough patch, that can only help the teams that I have laid.
I have put in a lay request of 31 pts Burnley @ 1.85 and thought that would get matched when Newcastle scored. Prospects are not as good now.
I did place a request to lay Newcastle for 25 pts @ 3.40 in case they took the lead and could not hold on. It seems that 3.40 was the best odds I could have got, so happy that was matched. I have now placed a request to trade 15 pts @ 3.70.
I have added a lay request of7.5 pts Leeds @ 6.40 but prepared to go slightly higher. 3 pts now matched @ 6.80 trying 6.60 for the rest.
However, the most surprising events were in Newcastle's price movement. Their odds shortened to around 3.10 in line with each goal Tottenham scored. I left the back bet open in case they drifted again, and by the time I left the computer, odds had returned to about 3.30 / 3.40. Having just returned to the computer, their odds were down to 3.10 again but there was no sign of my 'open' bet. At some point, odds must have drifted to at least 3.70 before dropping rapidly to where they are now.
I have increased the odds on the Brentford request to 12.00 but will go no higher at this stage.
The extra liability on Newcastle leaves a bit of leeway for laying Burnley at slightly higher than 1.89 ahead of Crystal Palace's trip to the Emirates tomorrow evening.
Next weekend's fixtures look very interesting with "6-pointers" on offer even this soon in the season.
Norwich face a difficult trip to Chelsea, while Brentford and Brighton host Leicester and Man City respectively.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle, Everton v Watford, Leeds v Wolves, and Southampton v Burnley all have the potential to cause movement in the market.
With Palace not turning up early on, Arsenal were made to look good and took a deserved lead. I made the mistake of thinking they may go on to do the same as they did against Spurs. I, therefore, expected Palace to shorten a bit in the market, with Burnley, Brentford and others set to drift.
About 1.5 pts of my Burnley lay had been matched @ 1.89 and I amended the balance to 1.91 with no takers. IWhen Palace equalised, I decided to get that matched @ 1.92, ready for when Arsenal came to their senses and got back in front.
That in turn enabled me to split the Brentford bet to 5 pts @ 12.00 and 5 pts @ 12.50; neither is yet matched.
As the second half progressed, it looked ever more likely that Arsenal were less and less likely to score. While wondering what to do, Palace took the lead, and that offered different possibilities.
I backed them for 3 pts @ 8.40 and requested another 2 pts @ 11 near the end. Most of that was matched during the match and I tidied things up by offering to lay the coppers @ 6.80 after the match and that has been matched.
I am now trying to lay Palace for 10 pts @ 5.20 but feel that may be nowhere near high enough.
Let's see what happens when the market settles over the next 48 hours.
The Crystal Palace enigma continues. Leicester (11th) and Arsenal (12th) are the two lowest placed teams they have faced. A brace of completely different matches, both ending 2-2. Apart from trips to both Manchester clubs, their fixtures look less daunting than their start. Having said that, they still only have 8 pts to their name, including a win over a desperate Tottenham side. Failure to take advantage of this run of fixtures would waste a good start and see odds plummet. Whether action should be earlier rather than later on the betting front is under consideration.
Looking at Burnley's next 8 matches, the best chance of picking up their first win may be this weekend at Southampton. Unless that happens, I can't see odds drifting above 2.00 in the near future, so that bet has been cancelled for now.
Teams I have backed.
33.5 pts Crystal Palace @ 3.73 ( 5.90 / 6.00 )
25 pts Watford @ 2.54 ( 1.52 / 1.53 )
24.5 pts Norwich @ 1.93 ( 1.27 / 1.28 )
4 pts Brighton @ 20.05 ( 34.00 / 40.00 )
Teams I have laid.
50 pts Newcastle @ 3.54 ( 3.05 / 3.10 )
27.5 pts Leeds @ 9.37 ( 6.40 / 7.00 )
16.5 pts Aston Villa @ 12.09 ( 18.50 / 19.50 )
29 pts Wolves @ 6.71 ( 19.00 / 19.50 )
82.25 pts Burnley @ 2.17 (1.91 / 1.93 )
35 pts Southampton @ 4.48 (7.00 / 7.20 )
4 pts Arsenal @ 45.25 ( 85.00 / 90.00 )
0.5 pts Everton @ 43.40 ( 70.00 / 100.00 )
Teams I have traded out (but can be moved).
Brentford -189.35 pts if relegated - 3 pts if safe
Teams that are deemed to be settled (but can be moved).
+12.00 pts West Ham ( 110.00 / 140.00 )
Requests awaiting matching
10 pts Crystal Palace @ 5.40
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