Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:10 pm

Whether Brentford play or not, lead or not, their odds have hardly moved at all in a fortnight. That means the outstanding bet remains unmatched. I am not interested in laying them at longer odds as that would require them to drift even further to complete the trade.

Bets made or requested today.

Burnley. I laid 2 pts @ 2.72 and 1 pt @ 2.74, both while they were leading, and 2 pts @ 2.60 after Leeds equalised. I aim to trade those at some point.
Leeds. I laid 4 pts @ 11.00 once they equalised.
Aston Villa. I laid 3 pts @ 12.00 simply because it still looks fair value.
Wolves. Even in defeat, they looked as though their interest in the drop zone should not be long-lived. All I could lay was 1 pt @ 6.80 before the odds changed too far.

Burnley 5 pts @ 2.80 - waiting

There will be a full update on Monday with thoughts on the season to follow.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:19 pm

Would you Adam & Eve it! The Brentford bet was matched while typing that. The Burnley bet is likely to take longer. :D
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:15 am

My early assessment of the season will be done after Round 4 taking into account the first 2 home and away games for each team.

One bit of late business yesterday, I backed Norwich for 4.5 pts @ 1.80. - all that was available
One optimistic request is a lay of Wolves for 5 pts @ about 6.00 - waiting

Brentford refusing to lose, and Arsenal refusing to get a point or a goal, leaves the portfolio at - 2.70 pts.

Teams I have backed.
23 pts Brentford @ 2.39 ( 4.20 / 4.30 )
20 pts Crystal Palace @ 3.07 ( 2.42 / 2.46 )
46 pts Watford @ 2.42 ( 2.40 / 2.44 )
26.5 pts Norwich @ 1.91( 1.76 / 1.77 )
4 pts Brighton @ 20.05 ( 17.50 / 18.50 )


Teams I have laid.
49 pts Newcastle @ 3.71 ( 2.56 / 2.58 )
20 pts Leeds @ 10.35 ( 13.50 / 14.00 )
16.5 pts Aston Villa @ 12.09 ( 14.00 / 14.50 )
29 pts Wolves @ 6.71 ( 6.00 / 6.40 )
22.25 pts Burnley @ 2.27 (2.58 / 2.66 )
19 pts Southampton @ 3.65 ( 5.20 / 5.30 )
12 pts West Ham @ 13.67 ( 50.00 / 60.00 )
4 pts Arsenal @ 45.25 ( 27.00 / 28.00 )

Teams I have traded out.
Everton +39.75 pts if relegated +0.5 pts if safe ( 55.00 / 90.00 )

Teams that are deemed to be settled.
None
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:28 am

A very late pre-match update.

A few minutes ago, the 10 pts back Crystal Palace was matched @ 2.80 and both the Burnley and Wolves bets cancelled so nothing outstanding.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:31 pm

That worked well.
It was supposed to be the first of a difficult string of matches, but I feel this result was a lot more to do with Tottenham and the loss of Son than Crystal Palace being a team capable of beating the best. However, the next 6 opponents include Liverpool, Leicester, Arsenal, and Man City.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:14 pm

I may regret it, but after Burnley took the lead at Everton, I laid 15 pts @ 2.50
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:34 pm

Message to Sean Dyche.

That sort of collapse should be reserved for the England cricket team. :shock: :D
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:22 am

An update of events leaves the portfolio at +1.05 pts.

Teams I have backed.
23 pts Brentford @ 2.39 ( 4.00 / 4.10 )
30 pts Crystal Palace @ 2.98 ( 3.85 / 3.95 )
46 pts Watford @ 2.42 ( 1.95 / 1.97 )
26.5 pts Norwich @ 1.91( 1.71 / 1.74 )
4 pts Brighton @ 20.05 ( 25.00 / 42.00 )


Teams I have laid.
49 pts Newcastle @ 3.71 ( 2.38 / 2.42 )
20 pts Leeds @ 10.35 ( 10.50 / 11.50 )
16.5 pts Aston Villa @ 12.09 ( 13.00 / 14.00 )
29 pts Wolves @ 6.71 ( 9.40 / 12.00 )
37.25 pts Burnley @ 2.36 (2.52 / 2.54 )
19 pts Southampton @ 3.65 ( 6.00 / 6.20 )
12 pts West Ham @ 13.67 ( 44.00 / 55.00 )
4 pts Arsenal @ 45.25 ( 30.00 / 36.00 )

Teams I have traded out.
Everton +39.75 pts if relegated +0.5 pts if safe ( 65.00 / 75.00 )

Teams that are deemed to be settled.
None
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:04 pm

Tonight sees Newcastle host Leeds.

I still have a small bet request open to lay 5 pts Brentford @ 3.50 which can be cancelled at any time should I so desire.

I want to lay Newcastle again ahead of the match. This is a trading proposition; short term if they take the lead and can be traded profitably, or during their run of fixtures where points can be accrued. I have laid 16 pts @ 2.30 but would not go much higher.

If Newcastle lose tonight, that would help the Burnley position a lot, while having a negative impact on the Brentford and Crystal Palace situations.

Whatever the result, there is likely to be some action ahead of Saturday's games. To reduce exposure, I may trade Everton and Wolves to small amounts.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2021/22

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:08 pm

The easy bit first.
The 5 pts lay of Brentford @ 3.50 is not going to get matched any time soon and has been cancelled.

Before today's game, any time 4.0 was available to back, it was matched. I even had 2 pts @ 4.0 myself.
When Norwich equalised against Watford, I took the opportunity of a small lay. If they went on to win it could be traded, otherwise, it was going to be another big step towards the Championship. I laid 2 pts @ 1.66.
The 16 pts lay of Newcastle @ 2.30 was matched and I have since traded 15 pts @ 2.40.
I also backed Southampton for 5 pts @ 6.00 expecting to trade that before the match. I eventually laid 16 pts @ 5.40.

The difficult ones are Everton, Wolves, and Burnley. I had hoped to trade a bit of the first two to reduce exposure but for obvious reasons that didn't happen. While Burnley were holding a much-improved Arsenal, I still expected to get a 10 pt bet @ 2.64 matched. When Arsenal scored, only 1.25 pts had been matched. I have left the balance open, but placed a lay request of 6.25 pts @ 2.16 (adjustable) as well.

I may need to trade some Brentford at a loss, but I shall leave that for the moment and hope the next 4 matches see them drop a few points.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users