Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:23 am

Cardiff v Burnley. Again there is a situation where both teams have shortened since yesterday morning. A win for either side would ease their odds in the short term; the effect of a draw may depend on what happens in the matches preceding it. Monday's match is between Bournemouth and Palace, both on the fringe of the main battle.

Arsenal tried to make Cardiff look a decent side at the beginning of the month but Manchester City did nothing of the sort last week, tearing them apart at will. Burnley had been showing signs of improved form, including a stunning 4-0 win against Bournemouth, until an almost full strength side lost at Burton in midweek having seemed to be in control.

A drift to more than 3.00 before the match is unlikely, but something around 3.50 should be on offer if they score first. I would try to back them at about those odds, primarily to reduce exposure. Any other scenario would see me leave things as they are.

Elsewhere, West Ham entertain Manchester United in the early kick-off. They will be hoping to capitalise on the better showing against Chelsea, as well as any disruptive emotion in the away dressing room. Everton host Fulham in a match between two teams needing a better result. Southampton travel to Wolves whose only defeats this season have been at Leicester in the league, and against the same opponents at home in the Carabao. Newcastle have lost all 3 matches at home, but will fancy their chances of a first win after facing Tottenham, Chelsea, and Arsenal on Tyneside.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:31 am

The turmoil at Old Trafford didn't come at a good time for me and there is no doubt that it played some part in United's defeat at West Ham. Having said that, the home side showed improved form when holding Chelsea the week before and beating a disappointing Everton side prior to that. Their next two matches are away to Brighton and at home to Tottenham, either side of the break.
If their odds continue to drift, and only defeat in both games would prevent this, trading will become less profitable. The time has probably come to take some profit rather than be left with a very poor position. This would entail increasing the exposure, so at the same time, I shall reduce the exposure on Leicester - and either Burnley or Crystal Palace depending on how the former fare at Cardiff later today.

The Leicester bet is purely a trade. Although wanting the best odds possible, getting matched is more important. Whether it is 1 point, 3/4 pt, or just 1/2 pt at 60 or 55 (even 50) would make little difference as the object is to reduce exposure by about 30 pts. However, that would only decrease the overall exposure slightly, so further action is required. That can only be achieved by backing Burnley or Crystal Palace, maybe both.
The last bet on Crystal Palace has not worked out too well yet. With a trip to Bournemouth on Monday followed by hosting Wolves at the weekend, it may be best to trade based on the overall position of 18 pts @ 8.56. Therefore, 3 pts backed @ about 11.50 would reduce exposure to the required level.
Burnley, after their match at Cardiff, are at home to Huddersfield next week in a match they need to win. I am prepared to let this position run till then if necessary but they then have a few difficult matches before potential relegation showdowns against Newcastle at home, and Palace away.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:38 pm

In accordance with the above, I have backed Leicester for 1/2 pt @ 55 and laid West Ham for 7 pts @ 13.5.

A further 2 pts of West Ham @ 13.5 is on offer (now matched) as is a request to back Crystal Palace for 2.5 pts @ 12.00.

I have put in a request to back Burnley for 10 pts @ 3.80. I took 10 pts @ 3.50 to decrease exposure (more options then with Palace and West Ham) and as a safeguard against a Cardiff equaliser.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:22 pm

Cardiff equalised as I finished typing the last post so now it is a case of wait and see. Burnley regained the lead and went on to win. Odds tried to touch 4.00 but have settled at around 3.70.

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace is next on the agenda, with a full update on Tuesday morning. The Crystal Palace back bet of 2.5 pts @ 12 has now been matched, reducing exposure, but the West Ham odds have drifted further so that has been cancelled for now.

I requested a back bet of Southampton @ 6.60 but did not get matched. That has been cancelled but I would still be interested ahead of the game with Chelsea.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:23 pm

Unfortunately, Tuesday morning must be flexitime due to circumstances at home.

The following have been laid.
13 pts Fulham @ 3.41 (3.70 / 3.75)
15.5 pts Crystal Palace @ 8.00 (10.50 / 11.50)
32 pts Burnley @ 2.04 (3.40 / 3.45)
16 pts Newcastle @ 3.89 (3.60 / 3.65)
5 pts Bournemouth @ 2.00 (36.00 / 38.00)
3 pts Everton @ 38.67 (40.00 / 46.00)
7.5 pts Leicester @ 12.07 (55.00 / 65.00)
6 pts Wolves @ 14.61 (55.00 / 60.00)

The following have been backed.
22.5 pts Huddersfield @ 3.44 (1.31 / 1.33)
10.5 pts Southampton @ 9.36 (6.40 / 6.60)
15 pts Watford @ 5.08 (36.00 / 38.00)
1 pt Brighton @ 15.25 (5.10 / 5.30)


The following have been traded out.
West Ham +26.93 pts if relegated +7.09 pts if safe.


Potential action to be taken.

I have re-instated a back bet of 5 pts @ 7.00 Southampton ahead of their match with Chelsea. If this does not get matched before the game, it will be cancelled or else would only be matched if Southampton looked likely to win and their odds drift.

If West Ham win another couple of matches their odds should drift quite substantially. As was the case with Leicester, there would be the option to reduce exposure with a small back bet @ 50+ if it is felt that the funds may be better utilised elsewhere.
Newcastle have faced 4 of the big 6 plus Leicester in their first 7 matches. Their next match is away to Manchester United but the last of the big 6 has to wait till round 19. They have been playing much better than either of the other teams on 2 points and should start picking up points on a more regular basis.
Burnley struggled to beat Cardiff and after what is almost a must-win match against Huddersfield, they face Manchester City and Chelsea.
Fulham, after a promising start, are finding life difficult and have dropped to their shortest odds since August 4th. After Arsenal, they have 3 easier fixtures before Liverpool, but need to take advantage.

Some trading possibilities exist, but obviously, it needs a correct prediction of one or more results. I will not be involved other than perhaps in-play.

Southampton now matched, so position now a back of 15.5 pts @ 8.60 in anticipation of some trading (whether good or bad).
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby OlbgDeleted501113 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:22 pm

Hello guys!I know it is a premature question!But who do you think will win the title in this season? :D

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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:50 am

As intended, I have traded part of the Southampton bet before today's game if it could be done for a profit. That enables the rest of the bet to run, and safeguards against a drift should Southampton win today.

I have laid 3 pts @ 6.20.

After West Ham's recent improvement, it was slightly disappointing to see them lose last night at Brighton. Not only has this had an impact on the odds of those teams, Newcastle, Fulham, and Palace all shortened due to Brighton winning.

Burnley v Huddersfield may offer in-play possibilities, and there is always the chance of a massive shock upsetting the market.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:48 pm

Burnley did offer in-play possibilities but the general opinion seemed to be they were incapable of holding on to the lead as the odds did not drift very far. How right they were!

Anyway, I took a shopping list to Betfair, with the aim of reducing exposure on Burnley, and transferring it elsewhere.

Requested bets.
15 pts Burnley @ 3.10 (not less than 3.00)
10 pts Newcastle @ 3.35 (may increase)
15 pts Southampton @ 5.20 (up to 5.50)
5 pts Crystal Palace @ 7.40 (or close)


While Newcastle and Fulham played well enough in places, the latter's inability to prevent a leakage of goals is worrying; the 21 in just 8 matches relies too heavily on their attack to deliver a supply at the other end.

The teams at the bottom continue to struggle in their quest for points, and this will give others a chance to pull away more easily if they can take advantage. Hence we may see bigger fluctuations in the market on a match by match basis, ideal for trading if getting it right.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:47 pm

I got no takers for the Burnley bet, but have laid the following from the above requests.

2 pts Newcastle @ 3.35
5.5 pts Southampton @ 5.20
5 pts Crystal Palace @ 7.40.

All balances have been cancelled.

I shall leave a full update until a couple of days before the next round of matches. However, bets or trades made before then will be posted.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:49 pm

Crystal Palace have what could be deemed "a fixture list from Hell" coming up. It commences with a (by comparison) 'easy' trip to Everton followed by Arsenal (H) Chelsea (A) Tottenham (H) Man Utd (A). Assuming they don't win on Merseyside, it is difficult to see them picking up enough points in the next four matches to pull clear of trouble. I am, therefore, prepared to back them as that will create funds that I shall use elsewhere. So 5 pts @ 7.80, 5 pts @ 8.00 and 5 pts @ 8.20 has been requested.

I still fancy Burnley to escape, but I have backed them 15 pts @ 3.25 which can be traded at any time.

A more immediate trade is 10 pts Fulham backed @ 3.25 which can be laid to further adjust exposure. I want to lay 10 pts 3.00 or 3.05.

Crystal Palace 5 pts @ 7.80 matched.
Burnley lay trade of 17 pts @ 2.86 has been matched but the remaining back bets await matching.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:37 pm

The Newcastle odds are beginning to look attractive again for lay or trading purposes. I shall definitely get involved if I can release some exposure, but may do so anyway if odds shorten back to about 3.35 or 3.40 as I was trying to lay them at those odds earlier.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:50 pm

The 5 pts @ 8.20 Crystal Palace has now been matched, as has 5 pts Fulham @ 3.15 as it drifted. I am hoping to get the balance matched at 3.10 but may need to stretch.

I have stretched Fulham to 3.20 and 0.5 pts now matched. Hopefully, the rest will follow soon.

I have also laid Newcastle for a further 14 pts @ 3.30 with a view to trading.

I have amended the Burnley odds to 2.98 in an attempt to get that laid and decrease the exposure.
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