Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:53 am

I have laid 15 pts @ 1.82 making the overall position on Huddersfield a back bet of 40 pts @ 2.27.

Requests of a 25 pts lay @ 1.60 and a back of 10 pts @ 2.50 have been left for in-play purposes but will be cancelled if not matched.

Watford were backed @ 3.30 before their win against what may prove to be a poor Brighton side. That victory is now followed by a trip to Turf Moor (albeit Burnley are not looking as good this season) and three difficult home games. Even if taking 3 points home today, their odds would have a distinct chance of returning to this level or shorter in the near future. That has persuaded me to back them further, so 10 pts @ 6.80 has been requested. I may accept shorter nearer to kick off.

Brighton look tempting, but at around 3.40 the odds are not considered good enough on the back of one result.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:44 pm

I got away with backing Watford for a few coppers @ 6.8 and managed to cancel the rest before the market adjusted. Burnley then equalised, so back to the beginning. This time, I put a tempting offer in to back them @ 7.6 but again this was not matched when Watford regained the lead. I, therefore, cancelled it again and replaced with the balance of 5 pts @ 9.40. This can run till the end of this round of matches whatever the results.

Brighton scoring twice has made me cut the odds to 9.00 but still await matching.

I did manage to back Brighton for 2.5 pts @ 4.20 and have a request in for another 2.5 pts @ 5.40.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:36 pm

The latter bet on Brighton never really looked like getting matched so that was cancelled.

I have traded another 20 pts of the Huddersfield bet @ 1.78 as they have two winnable home games coming up, particularly against Cardiff and (sandwiching a trip to Goodison). That leaves a nett back position of 20 pts @ 2.76 in the portfolio. If they drift after the next 2 or 3 matches, I shall re-invest before their visit to the King Power and then play host to Spurs.

I have also lowered my sights for the Watford balance but will not accept less than 8.60. All now matched @ 8.80.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:45 am

The up-to-date portfolio is shown below with current back/lay odds in brackets. Where trading has taken place, only the overall figure is shown.

The following have been laid.
13 pts Fulham @ 3.41 (4.20 / 4.30)
10 pts Crystal Palace @ 6.40 (9.80 / 10.00)
10 pts Burnley @ 5.00 (3.85 / 3.90)
10 pts Bournemouth @ 5.50 (8.80 / 9.20)
1 pt Everton @ 40.00 (48.00 / 50.00)
6 pts Leicester @ 10.67 (19.50 / 22.00)

The following have been backed.
20 pts Huddersfield @ 2.76 (1.69 / 1.71)
6 pts Southampton @ 11.57 (5.50 / 5.60)
2 pts Newcastle @ 10.41 (4.80 / 5.00)
15 pts Watford @ 5.08 (8.60 / 9.00)
1 pt West Ham @ 96.16 (6.20 / 6.40)
2.5 pts Brighton @ 4.20 (4.60 / 4 80)

The following has been traded out.
Wolves 4.6 pts profit if relegated, level if safe (8.00 / 8.40).

At mid-point odds, the market share for Cardiff and Huddersfield is 124%. That leaves around 180% for the other 12 teams to fight over.

If those two teams do get relegated, it leaves only one more spot to be decided. Should this betting pattern continue, the odds for the remaining 12 will drift further overall. Unless Burnley can turn their form around, that would lead to any trading value that we currently hold being eroded.

As a consequence, it may be necessary to trade some positions earlier than intended.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:56 pm

Mixed feelings with the results over the weekend.

Brighton, Newcastle, and West Ham failed to cause an upset. However, Wolves took a useful point from the visit of Man City.
Huddersfield v Cardiff saw more action off the ball than on it, resulting in a not too surprising goalless draw.
Southampton, Bournemouth, and Everton got just about the results expected on current form with Leicester being the major beneficiaries.

Watford got the better of Crystal Palace giving them a bit of leeway entering their run of difficult fixtures. Needing to use a promotional bet, I had 5 pts on Watford @ 2.50 and laid them for 6 pts @ 1.50 in play for a profit of 4.5 pts that I would rather not have made. :D I am sure they will shorten during the next few weeks and some trading may still be possible.

Fulham beat Burnley and this seemed to cause an overreaction in Burnley's odds. I have laid them for 50 pts @ 2.78 which makes the overall lay 60 pts @ 3.15 and hopefully, that can be traded at similar or better odds. The choice can then be made whether to leave some as a lay, convert it to a back bet, or even neutralise it. Greening up may also prove a possible option.

In some ways, Burnley's current position resembles Leicester's after winning the league and trying to mix Premier League and Champions' League campaigns. Obviously, the Leicester title-winning side could be argued as being much stronger (particularly in depth) but the Europa League opposition should be correspondingly weaker. However, Burnley have struggled and the 2nd leg against Olympiakos should either terminate their involvement in the competition or give their morale a much-needed boost. Either is likely to have a beneficial bearing on league form.

As mentioned in the previous post, Huddersfield and Cardiff are continuing to take out a massive part of the betting market.

We have one more round of matches before an international break, and that sees Burnley entertaining Manchester United just a few days after the Europa match. Cardiff host Arsenal, while Huddersfield travel to Everton with both sides hampered by suspensions. Overall a point for Huddersfield is possible but Burnley and Cardiff may well draw blanks. That would have an adverse effect on the favourable odds we hold on some teams that have been backed. Some are bound to drift, so trading will certainly be taking place before round 5 if nothing is done earlier.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:27 pm

I have managed to back Burnley 30 pts @ 3.30 and 25 pts @ 3.25. rather than the figures I had hoped.

Lays are the original 10 pts @ 5.00 and 85 pts @ 2.78.

This has now been converted to an overall lay of 40 pts @ 2.64 which will probably take a dip before it (hopefully) improves.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:28 pm

Partly due to the reasons stated above, and partly to reduce exposure,

I have put in lay requests for the following.

10 pts Newcastle @ 4.60
9 pts Wolves @ 10.00
5 pts Crystal Palace @ 10.50
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am

I have backed Burnley for a further 10 pts @ 3.25 making the overall position a lay of 30 pts @ 2.44.

The previous lays of Newcastle (increased to 15 pts @ 4.60 and 3 pts @ 4.50) and Crystal Palace have been fully matched.

The lay of Wolves is currently only partially matched (1.75 pts).

In order to further reduce the exposure, I want do some trading with West Ham. This involves backing them to stay up with a bookie, and backing them for the drop on Betfair. To this end, I have used a balance of 23 pts to back them @ 1.22 to stay up (same as laying to be relegated). This would show a profit of a shade more than 5 pts and the 5 pts can be utilised for backing West Ham at anything around 5.50 or better (trying 5.70).

Due to this bet and the balance of Wolves awaiting matching, the following table does not include those balances and will be edited accordingly once matched.

It is unlikely that much further action will occur before this round of matches, but the situation will be reviewed while we have a respite due to the internationals.

The lay balance of Wolves was cancelled due to the odds drifting to 12.00 and was replaced by a very small back bet @ 11.50 to round off the overall stake to 1 pt.

The following have been laid.
13 pts Fulham @ 3.41 (5.70 / 5.90)
15 pts Crystal Palace @ 7.77 (11.00 / 12.00)
30 pts Burnley @ 2.44 (2.76 / 2.78)
16 pts Newcastle @ 3.89 (4.60 / 4.80)
10 pts Bournemouth @ 5.50 (10.00 / 11.00)
1 pt Everton @ 40.00 (50.00 / 60.00)
6 pts Leicester @ 10.67 (30.00 / 34.00)
1 pt Wolves @ 3.89 (11.00 / 12.00)

The following have been backed.
20 pts Huddersfield @ 2.76 (1.61 / 1.63)
6 pts Southampton @ 11.57 (4.90 / 5.10)
15 pts Watford @ 5.08 (14.00 / 15.00)
2.5 pts Brighton @ 4.20 (4.90 / 5.00)

The following have been traded out.
West Ham 72.2 pts profit if relegated 4.1 pts profit if safe (5.70 / 5.80)
Wolves 4.6 pts profit if relegated, level if safe (8.00 / 8.40)
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:54 pm

This weekend's matches is a very rare event, but one that can spell anything from disaster to euphoria. None of the 'big 6' faces another, meaning they all face one of the 14 on the relegation radar. While that in itself is still not too unusual, the remaining 8 teams face each other in four matches, each of which is a team I have backed fpr relegation playing one that I have laid.

Should this happen towards the end of the season, it would be a nightmare scenario. I would be reaching for a few bottles of my favourite tipple and headache tablets, remembering, of course, to take them alternately rather than together! :shock: :D

Burnley's spirited performance in the process of being eliminated from the Europa League has seen an end to their odds falling like a stone - even if they take a slight dip in the event of losing to Manchester United. There is little that can be done with regard to them or the other 5 in this bracket, so that just leaves the other four matches.

Brighton v Fulham. These are about the smallest liabilities in the backing and laying categories respectively. While preferring an away win, I shall not lose too much sleep whatever the result.

Everton v Huddersfield. This may be the safest for me and I am prepared to let this one run. Only an away win would have a massive impact on the odds.

Crystal Palace v Southampton. If Southampton continue to show the commitment and desire that they did against Leicester, it is just a matter of time before they start putting more points on the scoreboard. Palace have looked to be better than the score in their last two matches. If so, they should be able to win here. I may be prepared to back Southampton further if they take an early lead, in the hope that Palace can turn it around.

West Ham v Wolves. This match has the potential for most carnage. An excellent position is held on West Ham, but at the moment, trading is difficult due to the outlay required as I have a large enough liability on Betfair. After this match, they face a trip to Goodison before home games against Chelsea and Manchester United. Things could still get worse for them before they get better, and as I have just a 1 pt loss as the worst case scenario, this may need to run a bit longer. As far as Wolves are concerned, their fixture list only takes a turn for the worse after week 10, so even a reverse here has time to be corrected.

So, despite the implications of these four results, there is very little to do other than sit, watch, wait, and hope.

With an international break to follow this round, there will be a fortnight to review the situation before the battle resumes.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:51 pm

Leicester outplaying Liverpool at times yet odds shortening for relegation - that is ridiculous. I have requested 2 pts lay @ 27.

Despite pulling one back while I was typing that, the equaliser didn't come. However, it was the first PL goal that Liverpool have conceded and there are no concerns at all about Leicester getting dragged into a relegation scrap.

I am still uncertain what action to take ahead of the 3 o/c kick-offs, so "no action is better than bad action". Where have I heard something similar to that recently :?
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:11 am

The Leicester bet was matched. Even though they still lost, the odds didn't drop further. An equaliser would have made the odds look much different.
With Cardiff to play at lunchtime, Burnley and Watford in the afternoon, there is scope for some movement in the market later. However, the big result was Wolves beating West Ham.

Have West Ham's odds reached the point where some (or a lot) of profit should be taken by trading, or does their fixture list suggest that their woes may continue? The next 6 fixtures are:-
a Everton
h Chelsea
h Man Utd
a Brighton
h Tottenham
a Leicester.

Failure to win at Everton would definitely see their odds shorten ahead of the visits of Chelsea and Man Utd. However, despite an unbeaten start to the campaign, Everton have not looked all that convincing either. The international break does mean that there is no need to rush into a decision.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:20 pm

I have been doing a fair amount of non-profit trading to reduce the exposure on West Ham. Obviously, this has meant tieing some funds up elsewhere but leaves more options open at a later date. As a result, instead of 1 pt @ 96, I now have 1.9 pts @ 52.66.

To further decrease exposure, along with the other bets mentioned above, I have backed Bournemouth 5 pts @ 9.00 to utilise a free bet, and tried (unsuccessfully) laying them for 8 pts at shorter odds. That failed, so I am seeking to get matched at around 9.20.

Matters on the pitch saw Burnley drift to a more realistic price before their defeat returned it to the pre-weekend level. Being still ahead of the game with my position, this can be left to run a bit longer. As there as been a substantial amount going on in the portfolio, I will update in the next couple of days when the markets have had time to settle.
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