Olympic Tennis - Rio 2016

undertherobe
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7239
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:00 pm

Olympic Tennis - Rio 2016

Postby undertherobe » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:10 am

Tennis at the Olympics starts on Saturday. Djokovic and Murray headline the men's event but plenty of top names are missing as well such as Federer and Wawrinka.

Please use this thread for all discussion on the tennis events at the Olympics.

The format of a long 3rd set should provide for some interesting matches and the 1st round has already thrown up some belting matchups such as Djokovic vs Del Potro and Cilic vs Dimitrov.

Emmasa
Group 2 Class
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:00 am

Postby Emmasa » Sat Aug 06, 2016 11:41 am

Hi Under, hi guys

Olympics starting today and the tennis event has Djokovic and Murray in the field, so those should be Gold and Silver medals for me.

Still this is a unique event and there are no records about previous seasons, courts are new, and there could be a few upsets in early rounds. Tennis players are used to train and live very quietly during a tournament, and Olympics are not quiet: some players could suffer from these changes of routine. I would skip this event cause it could be totally unpredictable, still it's impossible to stay quiet with so many activity. I'm pretty sure some players are looking forward to get back to their routine: Olympics and tennis don't match well.

Also there are no ATP points (unlikely in London) nor money to win. Both Djokovic and Murray will play at their best even without incentives as they are nacional heroes and they have a reason to be here: Djoko has no gold medal yet, Murray is the defending champion.

But what about the other players? If there are no money nor ATP points to win, why should I give my 100% in a hot humid country when I should be preparing Cincinnati and the US Open with my coach? Any player has to answer this question, and those who didn't find an answer didn't show up (Berdych, Thiem, Wawrinka, Raonic...).

I read somewhere that courts are slow

Visions and hallucinations

Ramos-Nishikori: Ramos was in good form last 2 months and he can put up a good match. Nishikori looked desperate in Toronto final, so maybe he will enter this event with low morale. Ramos to win at least a set

Pella-Kohlschreiber: The german looked ugly in his last matches and Pella is on his highest ranking or so. Good value @4

Darian King from Barbados (10 matches wining streak, 2 challenger titles) to beat Steve Johnson (also known as The walking dead)

Player to watch: Goffin (to beat Nadal in QF)

undertherobe
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7239
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:00 pm

Postby undertherobe » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:00 pm

You make a great point about there being no points available. As great as an Olympic medal is, is it really the pinnacle of tennis? I'd say no with the Grand Slams being the ultimate achievement.

There was an interesting stance from one of the regular commentators on the ATP Tour (can't remember who) that suggested that with Andy Murray already having an Olympic singles medal, maybe his main focus in Rio will be on the men's doubles with his brother?

With that in mind, and it's a very speculative punt, i'll take a piece of Troicki at 21/2 and a main bet of the match going the distance at 9/2

Emmasa
Group 2 Class
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:00 am

Postby Emmasa » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:05 pm

I like that "going to the distance" at 9/2

Murray would love to win a medal with his brother for sure, I agree with that. Can he under perform in singles because of that? I don't know

undertherobe
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7239
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:00 pm

Postby undertherobe » Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:21 pm

I stand corrected on the format. Looks like there's a tiebreak in the final set after all.

Anyone know when they changed from a long set? Even the Rio 2016 website still has the scoring down as a long final set

TheHawkz
Listed Class
Tips
Posts: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:00 am
Location: Hampshire

Postby TheHawkz » Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:33 pm

probably a tv and sc hedule issue.

The draw shows Kerber playing round 2 and round 3 on tuesday if she wins round 1, this is crazy if true.

Bouchard is a standout bet for me tonight, found her form and Stephens is going backwards for me, the price is very wrong and as usual based on hype for Stephens, unless Bouchard is carrying a knock of course.

Stephens SP 1/2 ...Unbeleiveable to see mistakes this big, not just my spelling.

Betfairalfie
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 8976
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:00 am

Postby Betfairalfie » Sun Aug 07, 2016 10:09 am

Nice win Hawkz :win:

Two fancies for me today;

Nao Hibino vs Irina Camelia Begu
Irina-Camelia Begu -4.5 (Games Won) @1.90 bet365
Irina-Camelia Begu to win 2 - 0 (Set Betting) @1.90 SportingBet


Begu won her warm up tournament in Brazil and should outplay Hibino here. She leads h2h 1-0 in their only encounter, won in straight sets last week in that tournament. So what could change?

Begu will be full of confidence for the repeat. 1.90 is the best price available.


Petra Kvitova vs Timea Babos
Over 2.5 (Total Sets) @3,40 Betway


Babos was losing finalist in Brazil last week so we know she is playing well on this surface. 3 of her 5 matches there went to a decider despite her starting favourite in each match.

Kvitova has been underperforming but looking at the movement in bookies prices is expected to deliver today.

I am delighted with the 3 set odds. bet365 go 3.00 which is decent but Betway, may the tennis gods bless them, go 3.40 which is worth anyone getting their accounts closed for. Best 21 12 prices Dutched comes to 2.87.

Emmasa
Group 2 Class
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:00 am

Postby Emmasa » Sun Aug 07, 2016 2:50 pm

Dustin Brown is fighting against the elements, looks like a davis cup match and the crowd is booing him. How can you boo Dustin Brown? I don't dare to bet against Bellucci and all that crowd but Brown seems the cooler player

Betfairalfie
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 8976
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:00 am

Postby Betfairalfie » Sun Aug 07, 2016 3:16 pm

Brown twists his ankle and retires.

Del Potro gets stuck in a lift at The Village for 40 minutes.

rustie
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:00 pm

Postby rustie » Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:34 am

Been pushed for time and unable to share my tips here because I haven't had much confidence in them myself due to a lack of time to properly study them.

Del Potro has just tipped a break even day for me into a very profitable one with that win over Djokovic.

Also helped my champions tips (Murray, Nadal E/W)

Sorry to post-gloat! will try to post some tips before tomorrow's play.

undertherobe
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7239
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:00 pm

Postby undertherobe » Mon Aug 08, 2016 7:41 am

Good stuff rustie. I picked the wrong 1st round upset. Del Potro is dangerous but he went out of Wimbledon after his upset over Wawrinka. Hopefully he'll be better prepared this time round.

I had to chuckle at Djokovic's tears. Serbia could have used some of that passion in the Davis Cup, even if it was only from the bench.

He clearly wants to do well fror his country, but only when it suits him.

rustie
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:00 pm

Postby rustie » Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:31 pm

Safe to say the only way you're going to find value on the men's side today is by handicaps and the Under/Over markets.

Edmund 2-0 v Daniel - @2.10

- Edmund destroyed Thompson 4&2 in the last round in what seemed a much closer matchup.
- Daniel is 3-11 on hard courts at ATP (inc. Davis Cup & Olympics)
- Daniel lacks power so if Edmund plays well and utilises his weapons then he should win.

Kohlschriber v Martin Under 21.5 Games - @1.80

- Martin was fortunate to draw Kudla in R1. The American has been dismal for most of the year whilst it's a decent matchup too.
- Martin has made strides this year but they've all come on clay. He lost his only hard court (challenger) match of the year in the build up to these games and that's more of a reflection of his ability on the surface.
- Kohli had his tough match in R1 and came from a set down to win comfortably so I think he will be in confident mood so I'm expecting him to win both sets by a break of serve at least.

Bautista-Agut v Lorenzi Under 19.5 Games - @1.90

- RBA leads H2H 3-0 including clay meeting in May this year.
- Lorenzi only won 35% and 30% of second serve points in their last two meetings.
- Lorenzi upped his recent 'first serves in' percentage by about 10% to 59% in the first round but even if he repeats that then RBA should ease to victory about 6-3 6-3 or so.

Del Potro v Sousa Over 21.5 Games - @1.90

- Del Potro had a tough match last night, mostly emotionally so I don't think he will play as well today.
- Sousa is unpredictable and having a tough 2016. However, he beat Haase easily in round one despite a poor H2H record.
- I could see a tie break in this one whilst I don't think Del Potro in straight sets is a value bet so I'm backing Over in the games.

Cilic -4.5 v Albot - @1.61

- Albot pulled off a surprise beating Gabashvili 6-4 4-6 6-4.
- There were 15 breaks of serve in those 30 games, Albot being broken seven times.
- Cilic is a strong server and he only faced two break points (not broken) against Dimitrov.

Monfils v Dutra Silva Over 19.5 Games - @2.00

- Monfils is In excellent form after winning Washington and doing well in Toronto,
- Dutra Silva has a win under his belt and is playing at home so will have crowd support.
- Dutra Silva is only 2-6 in main tour matches this year but he has played a tie break in each of his last four matches.

Muller v Tsonga Over 23.5 Games - @1.90

- Similar styles of play in that they're both strong behind first serve.
- Very similar round one matches. Both came from a set down to win and stared into a defeat at some point.
- First set in their last two meetings has been a tie breaker whilst the first two sets of their last meeting at Wimbledon '15 went to a breaker in an eventual five setter.

Nishikori -5.5 v Millman - @2.10

- Millman did win 6-0 6-0 in the first round but that said more about the woeful Berankis.
- Nishikori served poorly against an in form Ramos-Vinolas who is a fighter yet he won 6-2 6-4 which is very impressive.
- I don't see Millman being able to protect his serve very well here and I'm backing Nishikori with the handicap because of it.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users