Cycling - Road Race

Liverpool1985
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 4914
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: England

Postby Liverpool1985 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:38 pm

Apparently Micko it's maximum Gradient is around the 6% marker. Looking at the list two riders that stick out at first are the Spanish Duo Alejandro Valverde and Luis Leon Sanchez. Both finished the Tour De France with a Stage Victory and both looked better as the Tour went on. Especially LL Sanchez who picked up an impressive 3rd place in the TT behind the Sky Duo. Definitely could be one that suites LL Sanchez here though and he loves being in any Breakaway.

LL Sanchez @ 66/1 looks appealing with Boylesports. Especially when BWin are offering a mere 25/1 on the Spanish Rider. Another rider other than Sagan who could relish this Race is Philipe Gilbert @ 33/1 with bet365. He is as short as 12/1 in places. Had a relatively poor year, but he looked okay at the Tour De France when getting in the Break he was involved in. And the 3rd rider would be the seemingly unstoppable Peter Sagan @ 7/1 with Paddy Power. Paddy go best price on Sagan every day. Trying to recoup losses on him probably! He is as short as 9/2 in places.

Cav's Sky teammate Rogers believes a Breakaway will win this Race. And this is an opinion mirrored by a fair few professionals. I will take these 3 and leave out Valverde and Cavendish. And hope one of these 3 provides me with some savage entertainment. I don't need money on Cav as a win for him and I will feel like I have won a bet anyway. Realised got meetings tomorrow so had to have a look through this now as otherwise the week is going to drift on by and I would forget to even have a bet.

Henao was very attacking on the short climbs in the Tour of Poland and could be another who really fancies his chance here.

addpea
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 942
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby addpea » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:48 pm

There are some very random countries in that list not surprisngly given its the Olympics. Wouldnt surprise me if some of them were tailed off by the time they get to Box Hill for the first time.
Interesting to see quite a few riders who crashed out of the Tour on the list although Im guessing some might still not make it on Saturday.

As a little aside there has been a bit of talk that Wiggins should light the flame on Friday night. I would happily lay him all day long given he will be tucked up in bed by the time it gets lit. People seem to be forgetting he has a race the next day at 10am.
@DarranPearce on twitter feel free to add me

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7677
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Postby Micko70 » Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:05 am

IF there is going to be a breakaway then i am looking at riders like

Rigoberto Uran, missed the Tour De France for Poland and has been in breakaways before and has a decent finish - @ 400/1 (bet365)

Lars Bak, been in loads of breakaways in the TDF @ 250/1 (bet365)

Michael Albisisni, in a few breakaways in the TDF @155/1 (bet365) & 199(Betfair)

addpea
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 942
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby addpea » Tue Jul 24, 2012 3:49 pm

Liverpool Sanchez is 250/1 with SportingBet they are win only though but given he is as short as 20/1 the price is just plain stupid. Just going through the odds on oddschecker and some of the difference in prices is crazy.
@DarranPearce on twitter feel free to add me

gizzajob
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 11:00 pm

Postby gizzajob » Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:31 pm

The CW map is here http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/fileBank ... ce_map.pdf which is quite a nice guide.

This route is very unlike a grand tour stage or even a one-day classic.

A flat section, 9 short hill intervals, and flat back.

Would a break be allowed to go early? I suspect they will be chased down until we get to Box Hill, especially as they will be into a westerly wind.

But then at Box Hill the non-sprinters teams will try to force a selection, perhaps led by the Italians and Spanish. But how many seconds could they make on each climb? maybe 5-10? no more I would say, and then on the descent/flat they will be getting chased down again by the British, German/Aus teams amongst others. Can they then open enough of the lead to stay away on the flat run in to London - I think they would need at least a minute after the last descent from Box Hill to do it, although as mentioned there will be a 10-12 mph due-westerly forecast which should help.

The other reason I favour Cav is that ordinarily the Olympic Road Race is not that important to pro cyclists. It is sandwiched between the TDF and World Championships which are far more important, so who has really peaked for it? Well Cav has as for him it is a unique "home-Olympics".

Having small teams too will also make a difference compared to other races. Can GB chase down the attacks and have enough left to create an effective lead-out?

It should be a fascinating race to watch, my money is on Cav at 2.63 (taken last Friday). Lots of things could happen inlcluding crashes on Box Hill descents or on the run in, so nothing is certain, and yes an outsider such as Albasini is a good pick. I wonder if there will be any H2Hs for it?

addpea
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 942
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby addpea » Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:59 pm

You make a good point about Cav being up for it more than others and thats why he wont get beaten in a sprint finish. In my view I reckon you will get some lesser riders go out front before you get to Box Hill and then it will kick off, maybe not straight away, but it will happen there. I think its a really fascinating race with quite a few ways it could go which is one of the reasons I think Cav is a poor price. He was 11/2 to win the Worlds last year with 7 behind him yet is 11/10 to win on Saturday with only 4 behind him. I have written a preview and will stick it up soon.
@DarranPearce on twitter feel free to add me

addpea
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 942
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby addpea » Wed Jul 25, 2012 11:39 am

Sadly I can no longer go to Box Hill on Saturday as I am working instead (cant afford to turn it down). Might try and watch it somewhere before I go to work but suspect I will just watch it on TV. Anywa here is the preview I have written

First of all it goes without saying I want Cavendish to win, but when it comes to betting you have to remove emotion from it. There is no doubt he has the strongest team behind him, however there are only four of them compared to the seven he had when he won the World Championships last year. He also won the test event last August, but I wouldn’t read too much into that bar the fact he will have first-hand knowledge of the course. It only featured three instead of nine climbs of Box Hill, there was an England team as well as a GB team riding for him and the line-up was not as strong as it will be on Saturday. Box Hill isn’t much of a climb compared to those in the Tour de France, it only has an average gradient of 5% and is less than 200m high. The problem Cavendish has is that nine climbs of it will test his climbing ability. He has proven before though that his climbing isn’t as bad as some people make out and I don’t think he will be dropped, although you can be certain that other riders will be trying their best to make sure that happens.

After the final climb of Box Hill there is a 40km run to the finish on the Mall. That is plenty of time for the breakaway to be caught, although it depends on who is in it and how far they are clear. What is certain is that GB will need help from other countries if it is going to be a sprint finish as, unlike in Denmark, the four of them will not be able to control things as well as they did that day. David Millar has already spoken about getting other countries to help and Germany, America and Australia are teams who will want it to be a sprint finish. I would also expect Bernhard Eisel to help out given how close he is to Cavendish and it wouldn’t be a big surprise for his Sky team-mate Edvald Boasson Hagen to chip in as well.

There is no doubt in my mind that if it is a sprint finish then Cavendish will win. The problem is, despite all I have said above, and the fact that you can be certain GB will have their tactics spot on, I am not certain it will be a sprint finish. History shows that a breakaway usually wins the Olympic Road Race and with some very strong riders set to start they will have a decent chance of staying away. The other problem is Cavendish’s price. He is no bigger than 11/10 as patriotic punters pile on the cash and the British bookies knowing they will see money for him pretty much whatever his price. In my view that is way too short given the doubts I have of the race ending in a sprint finish and for that reason I will be looking elsewhere.

First stop has to be Peter Sagan who had a superb Tour de France in winning the Green Jersey and three stages. He looks a superb each-way bet at 7/1 with Paddy Power as I think he has two chances of winning. First of all he will look to get into a breakaway and if he does he will almost certainly win. Secondly if it comes down to a bunch sprint he will also be in contention and although I don’t see him beating Cavendish he will have a great chance of winning silver or bronze and we still get paid out.

The other man I think is overpriced is Tom Boonen. He was superb in the first part of the season and was arguably as good as he has ever been. He is one rider who has the strength to go away from a fast peloton in the closing stages and will no doubt try and get in a breakaway before then as well. A one day race like this is what he is best at and I would have him a lot shorter than 25/1 (various) in the betting. The only slight concern is that he got injured in the Tour of Poland recently, but for him to be riding he must be over that so it doesn’t put me off backing him. Unlike Sagan I would expect Boonen to either win or finish out of the medals, so will only be backing him to win.

Finally Cavendish is available at 2/5 to finish in the top 3. In my view he either wins if it’s a bunch sprint, or he will finish out of the medals if it’s a breakaway. Basically he either wins Gold or nothing. Therefore at 2/5 I think he is a pretty low risk lay to finish out of the three.

As I said earlier I really hope Cavendish can win Gold and on this occasion I will be delighted if I lose my money, but given the likelihood of a break succeeding he just can’t be backed at very short odds.
@DarranPearce on twitter feel free to add me

dddennis17
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:01 am

road race

Postby dddennis17 » Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:40 am

Is there any reason why cavendish odds dropped so much over the last few hours?

It was 11/10 a week back, then 4/5 2 days ago and this morning a very very small 2/25. Am I missing something?

KanKeano
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 10231
Joined: Thu May 05, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Yorkshire

Postby KanKeano » Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:57 pm

Breakaway wins again, just as we thought. Not enough men to be able to control a peloton like on the World Tour and the World Champs. Just can't do it with just 4 men and a sprinter, with too many men up field.

Vino - love you! Knew you had it in you.

Posted by Micko
Rigoberto Uran, missed the Tour De France for Poland and has been in breakaways before and has a decent finish - @ 400/1 (bet365)
Nice shout as well Micko.

Should be an interesting time trial on Wednesday now with Brad flogging himself towards a lost cause today and Fabian falling over. Tony Martin got off his bike at the right me thinks and I think he's going to take all the beating Wednesday.
OLBG Moderator

Twitter | KanKeano_OLBG

Owner of KanKeano Bears | SUPERBOLBG
AFC Conference Champions Season 5
AFC South Champions Season 3, 4 & 5

addpea
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 942
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby addpea » Sat Jul 28, 2012 3:15 pm

Racing Post went 4pts on a Cav win today which was crazy advice. As we all thought it was too hard for GB to contain the field and bar the odd German helping out no one else wanted to chase.
Just a massive shame that a druggie had to win the race.
@DarranPearce on twitter feel free to add me

drobgod
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 963
Joined: Tue May 11, 2010 11:00 pm

Postby drobgod » Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:42 pm

Some of the tipping and info on this race has been sensational. I never watch Cycling, but did watch a lot of this race in the hope Cavendish would strike gold for GB and listening to the BBC pundits you'd have thought he only had to turn up to do so.

Clearly most of you knew it wasn't that simple, but to see things written like the riders that sprint from the back don't usually win and witnessing both the winner and second tipped up at 66/1 and 400/1 is remarkable.

Pity they didn't have you lads on BBC.........well done though anyway.

RomanyKing
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5686
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Sky Blue City
Contact:

Postby RomanyKing » Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:44 pm

Great tipping, shame the race was nearly finished when I noticed them
Love Outsiders...Hate Favourites

follow me on twitter @samsationuk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users