Aintree Grand National 2021

Wizzyofc
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Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby Wizzyofc » Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:01 pm

We can talk here about trends or some selections for the Grand National 2021 ? :win:


Final four selections for me

Acapella Bourgeois - irish gn placed, mullins trained, will stay, will race prominently, irish have had a 1-2-3 in the last 2 renewals. big run expected 33/1

Potters Corner - some of the best form claims from the british side of things, won welsh gn 3m 6f, will stay, rated 149, 11 chase starts, 3rd in bumper here behind barters hill. big run expected 25/1

Anibale Fly - 4th in 2018 5th in 2019 will go well again most likely place at 33/1 odds

Burrows Saint - won irish gn, mullins trained will stay similar chance to acapella bourgeois. expect them to be much closer in the betting at SP time acapella is the most overpriced horse in the field currently I believe. 10/1
Last edited by Wizzyofc on Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby meoldmate » Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:19 pm

GRAND NATIONAL 2021

Opening View

What a unique year with the covid19 virus stopping all from sporting events, Cheltenham felt strange without a roar and the television roar was rather lost than inspiring.

The winter national hunt scene has not been the same either with Ireland white washing the home country trainers by winning practically every race at the festival of Cheltenham.

Now we move onto Aintree and the race that everyone and their dog loves to have a punt on, with kids putting their ten pence each way play on with horses like The Jam Man as they have bread and butter with jam or Gold Present as they are looking for a present if they win or they become sentimental and take Flying Angel thinking of loved ones.

Then we move up the age process and find mum and dad have preferences with names and possibly both follow horse racing and going through the form and coming up with the favourite Cloth Cap.

Then into the age group like myself who can remember when Mr Frisk winning way back i 1990 or further back still to 1980 with Ben Nevis and we were in an era to se Red Rum started his winning sequence in 1973, 1974 and then again in 1977.

Gran and granddad will be reminding all who they bet in the past and will be following their systems with a pin or name of a jockey or even trainer and owner colours.

Everyone loves to have a punt here in this race but the feeling will be different with many people who have lost love ones through this epidemic and not be able to show the same attitude as before and crowds will be missing.

Last year race was a cartoon network one with imitation, this year we will be watching the real thing with forty horses lining up and jumping those big fences, hopefully on good ground.

Consideration of information

If you want stats and other things along with history of past winners with trainers and Analysis of stuff, you can look elsewhere, this is a view I hope is easy on the eye.

Too much information can bog you down and you find the horse you fancy being put off by or the stats that are out there.

What to look for

Go through the official ratings in the Racing Post which is at the bottom of the race card with OR
Just to assist if not knowing what to look for.

Rating figure to start with 158 Horses name Ballyoptic, last six runs ratings 159, 157,163,160,158. his highest win rating is 157 and his lowest is 152.

He is a pound above his best and six pounds higher than his lowest, which is a good indication of his ability and the handicapper has dropped him down from marks in the 160's, fairly easy to follow.

Keep an eye on ground conditions, horses like to have preferences to act on and if the ground is on the soft to heavy side look lower down the weights, you will see this after their names with age first followed by weight (7 10-11). When the ground is testing it is easier to carry a light weight than a heavier but the opposite if ground is good or good to firm.

Horses that are in form and horses that have raced over fences in the past, can tend to seeing them going well.

Trainers can be a useful angle with winning this race or have a stable in good form, of course jockey who can act well here.

If horses have won at twenty furlongs, they can stay this trip well.

The Field on the 30th March

Most bookmakers have non-runner no bet, means money returned.

At present stage 77 have been declared and half will be missing come 5.15

Guide to assist

1 SANTINI 9 11-10 50/1 out of sorts in the Gold Cup pulled up, questions to answer. Has raced here twice and finished in placed positions, can act on this course not sure of these fences. Rating of 167 never won off this mark but handicapper has eased him slightly to this.

2. BRISTOL DE MAI 10 11-10 28/1 raced many times here and never won, stayer and fairly good jumper, likes soft conditions Rating 167 thirteen pounds above best winning mark which came at Haydock in 2018 over three miles. Has form with Santini.

3. THE STORYTELLER 10 11-8 25/1 never raced here and useful chaser with grade one winning performances, last seen over hurdles at Cheltenham, possible angle of looking after his mark of 165.
Has won off 158 at Punchestown over three miles on soft going.

4. CHRIS'S DREAM 9 11-7 40/1 Raced here once and comes from Henry De Broomhead stable who had an excellent Cheltenham and stable in good form. Rating of 164 has form with The Storyteller.

5. YALA ENKI 11 11-3 40/1 thorough stayer, fell when tackling these fences, this is the only time he has fallen in thirty three runs in chases. Rated 160

6. BALLYOPTIC 11 11-1 100/1 raced in the National once and fell and could be vulnerable again. Rated 158

7. DEFINITLY RED 12 11-1 66/1 was pulled up in this race back in 2018, stayer and capable but another that maybe vulnerable Now twelve and not getting any younger. Rated 158

8. LAKE VIEW LAD 11 11-0 40/1 pulled up in this in 2019 when Tiger Roll won. Rated 157, has the ability to jump but maybe found out by the trip.

9. BURROWS SAINT 8 10-13 12/1 from the all conquering Willie Mullins stable in Ireland and interesting runner here, never raced here and a test of stamina, unsure if he stays. Rated 156

10. MAGIC OF LIGHT 10 10-13 20/1 Solid performance in this race when second to Tiger Roll 2019 off a rating of 151, very interesting runner with two more pounds to carry here from his second position. Rated 156 but up five pounds overall, well within this to run a very good race.

11. ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 11 10-12 33/1 won his last race at Fairyhouse over 3 miles and 1 1/2 furlongs on heavy ground with five runners, this will be a different kettle of fish here for him. Rated 155.

12. TALKISCHEAP 9 10-12 66/1 Gold Cup handicap winner from Sandown over 3 miles 5 furlongs and likes to be prominent, Rated 155 and a interesting young runner.

13. TOUT EST PERMIS 8 10-12 80/1 won three races on the trot in 2019 but has not shown anything in the last year and before. Rated 155

14. ANIBALLE FLY 11 10-12 Raced in this race twice with fifth and fourth positions off ratings off 164 and 159, certainly make her presence felt on third try. Rated 155 gives her a positive look.

15 MISTER MALARKY 11 10-12 50/1 raced once after wind surgery, not sure to make of him here. Rated 155

16. KIMBERLITE CANDY 9 10-10 14/1 can make mistakes but stays, may worth a look with racing off a rating of 155.

17 BEWARE THE BEAR 11 10-10 66/1 never raced at Aintree and not arriving to this race in great form. Rated 153.

18. PYM 8 10-10 66/1 not over raced, only eight chase races to his name and these fences will test him plus the distance, stamina to be considered. Rated 153

19. ANY SECOND NOW 9 10-9 10/1 not sure what expect from this son of Oscar and showed speed to win over two miles last time out and now up further in trip. Rated 152

20. BALKO DES FLOS 10 10-9 50/1 not a prolific winner of races and maybe vulnerable here if lining up . Rated 152

21. ALPHA DES OBEAUX 11 10-9 80/1 fell in this back in 2019 when holding a position, not been in great form but did show something of his old self when fourth in the cross country behind Tiger Roll at the festival. Rated 152.

22. BRAHMA BULL 10 10-8 not raced much and a test of stamina might find him out here. Rated 151

23. OK CORRAL 11 10-8 50/1 lightly raced for his age and maybe vulnerable to seeing this trip out. Rated 151

24 TAKINGRISKS 12 10-7 50/1 can take risk at his fences, arrives in good form to the race with a win at Doncaster but may not be to figuring here. Rated 150

25. SHATTERED LOVE 10 10-7 50/1 has the ability and won at twenty furlongs, which can be a good indication of staying this trip, questions to answered here. Rated 150

26. JETT 10 10-7 50/1 not been in great form and will need to raise his game if holding this declaration. Rated 150

27 THE JAM MAN 8 10-7 50/1 raced eight times over fences and a big ask for him here. Rated 150

28 LORD DU MESNIL 8 10-6 40/1 likes a test of stamina and won last time out at Haydock over twenty eight furlongs, nice price if he can produce the goods. Rated 149

29. POTTERS CORNER 11 10-6 25/1 stays but may need heavy ground to be at his best. rated 149.

30. CLASS CONTI 9 10-6 40/1 only won two races from fourteen over fences, be surprised if h can make an impact here. Rated 149.

31. MILAN NATIVE 8 10-6 33/1 can make mistakes which can put pay to his chances, has stamina to burn and a light weight can help. Rated 149.

32 DISCORAMA 8 10-6 33/1 has stamina to burn but has only won one in ten chase races but been second in four, can possibly figure. Rated 149.

33 VIEUR LION ROUGE 12 10-5 50/1 raced four times in this race, a bit of a standing dish and never figured in any at the finish, possibly the same again once more. Rated 148.

34. CLOTH CAP 9 10-5 4/1 favourite for this race, looks exciting but can he jump these fences, remain to be seen, if able a big danger to all, a good stayer in the making. Rated 148.

35. CABARE QUEEN 9 10-5 100/1 not in great form and form to find with a few here. Rated 148.

36. MINELLACELEBRATION 11 10-5 100/1 can unship his jockey and has teh ability to act around here but if jumping becomes a concern, then he is not going to be a threat here. Rated 148.

37. CANELO 8 10-4 40/1 has the ability and possibly the stamina to see the trip out, holding his form and could give a good account. Rated 147.

38 . THE LONG MILE 7 10-4 40/1 think this will be a bit of a test for him. Rated 147.

39. GIVE ME A COPPER 11 10-4 66/1 need a copper to escort him around . Rated 147.

40. FARCIAS 7 10-3 33/1 raced seven times over fences and not sure to expect here wit ha light weight. Rated 146.

41. MINELLA TIMES 8 10-3 14/1 will be looking for one of the above to come out and be given the opportunity to race and if so is in good form to be figured with. Rated 146.

50. SECRET REPRIEVE 7 10-1 another that will be looking to get in and has a strong chance of running well if able to run. In great form with two wins, stays but may need soft ground to be at his best. Rated 144.

CONCLUSION

Not really have anything of potential to place over at present stage but did like CLOTH CAP win at Kelso last time out but 4/1 is on the short side for what he has shown so far.
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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby Gruntly2017 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:25 pm

Now I really don’t like backing favs in the National, but when you look back at cloth caps last 2 wins it’s hard to not be impressed. I mean when you look at how this horse has progressed, the Ladbrokes trophy was just a MasterClass I think it was the 4th from finish was just breathtaking jumping, then he looked near pitch perfect again in the trial stuffing aso who looked primed for that race. I really think Jonjo has worked the oracle on this horse and although he’s no value at 4/1 (admittedly I have also backed at the robbing 7/2 sorbet were offering) I just can’t help but think if he doesn’t run into problems he’s going to be a tough nut to crack.... I just hope he doesn’t get stuck in traffic and can stay in a handy position, think will try to keep him upfront and try to run them all to mercy. If he jumps those fences he’s definitely the one to beat... plus jonjo owes me I still can’t forget sunnyhillboy has been backing that all year at crazy prices and got pipped right on line still think that was a dead heat so they owe it to me 😂👍 gl all. One thing I will say is in the trophy I would have loved vindication to stay on his feet as think we would have seen a good old battle there personally.

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby meoldmate » Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:05 pm

Gruntly2017 back in 2012 was one of those rare days that I got the winner right, so no dead heat :lol: :lol: :lol: Certainly a close finish. a nose or a whisker.

Cloth Cap looks the real deal and like you 4/1 does look skinny and I am wondering if the bookies will let the price slide out on the day.
I will look again in the coming week to see if I can spot a real danger to him besides the fences and interference of fallers but it looks like JJ has been working the oracle on this one and him and his owner how to get one ready for a tilt at this great race.
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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby Wizzyofc » Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:11 pm

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby Wizzyofc » Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:41 pm

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby Wizzyofc » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:04 pm

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby Wizzyofc » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:42 pm

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby The Snail » Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:29 am

Sub lieutenant was second in topham in 2019 not the national, however he did win over 3m at Punchestown in 2018.

:win:

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:02 am

Looks like it will be a good ground National and possibly the course record held by 'Mr Frisk' up for grabs. I can't back the favourite at that price and I'm guessing he will drift on the day, possible out to 5/1 or more.

The last 5 winners have been 8 or 9 yo, which is typically seen as the optimum years for a jumps horse. Too inexperienced before that, on a steady decline after. But that's in general of course, that age trend DOES get busted. However, it does attract a better quality animal these days and a decent class animal at optimum racing age will be tough to beat.

The better horses are of course at the top of the handicap and again in the last 5 years no horse has won carrying under 10st 7lb:
- in 2019 only 1 of the first 5 carried under 10st 7lb,
- in 2018 (2),
- 2017 (0),
- 2016 (1),
- 2015 (2)

And also,
- In 2019 6 of the top 7 carried 10st 11lb or more,
- 2018 4 from 7,
- 2017 4 from 7 (2 of the 3 were 10st 10lb),
- 2016 only 1 carrying 10st 11lb+ was in the top 6,
- and in 2015 just 1.

So, it appears that changes to the race now allow better horses carrying the bigger weights to last home more effectively. Some of the fences have been cut in size, horses need to have finished at least 4th in a 3m+ race (thus proving stamina), rated 125+ (no donkeys allowed), no races in the previous week (ensuring they are not entering the race 'tired') and jockeys need to be experienced (ten wins in chases)

In this years race there are just 5 horses aged 8 or 9 carrying 10st 11lb or more - Mr Malarkey, Tout Est Permis, Talk Is Cheap, Burrows Saint, Chris's Dream plus another 4 carrying 10st 7lb-10st 10lb - The Jam Man, Any Second Now, Pym, Kimberlite Candy.

So, that cuts the field down to a more manageable nine horses!

Cheltenham showed that Irish trained horses seem to be well ahead of the British horses at the moment, not sure why, I think they're still trying to work it out themselves.

Of the above, Chris's Dream, Burrows Saint, Tout Est Permis, Any Second Now, The Jam Man are Irish trained.

Chris's Dream - will do well to win a National on what he's achieved. His mark seems really high and will need to be a really good horse to win off 11st 7lb. Many Clouds won off 11st 9lb in 2015 but went into the race with a 1-1-1-6 record with the 6th coming in the Gold Cup. Chris's Dream was pulled up in this years Gold Cup with a record this season of 2-5-P.

Burrows Saint - won the Irish Grand National in 2019, but is 12lb higher for this. That win did come on Good/Yielding though, so very similar ground likely.

Tout Est Permis - 5l third behind The Storyteller and Chris's Dream in the 3m Irish Champion Chase back in October. Receives 9lb+ in weight from them now (Yielding ground). Won a chase worth 53k at stiff, uphill finish course Navan in 2018 where he had Grand National 2nd Magic of Light 11lb behind. That was as a 5yo, extremely young for a chaser. That was on good ground. Could have lots of class for this but will be his 7th race of the season.

Any Second Now - 11lb higher than when winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2019 on gd/sft. Has done ok on good ground but best form seems to be on softer.

The Jam Man - 21lb higher than winning by 18l at Navan back in November (The Troytown, same race won by Tout Est Permis in 2018). Softer ground looks more suitable but did win on good ground in a lower class back in 2019.

The one at a big price there is Tout Est Permis who looks way too big at 66/1+. Hasn't been in the greatest of form though, although 5l behind Burrows Saint when finishing 2nd and 4th at Fairyhouse 6 weeks ago looks decent enough. Burrows Saint looks a good bet at a shorter price. Acapella Bourgeois had both those two horses 5l and 10l back in 2nd and 4th in that same race, has form on good and is a few pounds better at the weights. So, therefore, I'm going

1. Burrows Saint
2. Tout Est Permis
3. Acapella Bourgeois
4. Magic of Light - Grand National 2nd in 2019, may be thereabouts again.

** A word on the favourite Cloth Cap. He is now rated 14lb better now than his mark of 148 for this (162 rating now). That makes him 'well in' at the weights and hence his price has tumbled. He could romp home in this. He won the Ladbroke Trophy by 10l at Newbury in November (the old Hennessey Gold Cup), on good ground over 3m 2f off 136. However, although he won easily enough at Kelso off 148 in early March, the opposition wasn't as good as this, and in that Newbury race significantly there was no Irish in competition. He could well win this but at the price I think he's worth opposing.

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby UnderdogsLover » Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:35 am

Good it s getting nearer.
I to agree cant back the favourite very short for me,
i even had to substitute one of other horses low double
figures ones.

First i always look out for 8 year olds :) .
Have followed that trend since Backed West Tip,
and turned out to be my favourite to follow,
Ones fit this Bill is.
Id like Mister Marlarki 8 year old. good value at 33/1.
Won twice this year, 2m 7f and 3m.
Going won on Good to soft.
Placed here in 2019.

Next one i like is Vieux Lion Rouge 12 year old.
Around 40/1.
Yes i all all ways look at that age to.
Course won here in Dec 3m 1f, on soft.
Place 3 times here and likes the class.
Hope this year he will surprise and finally gets a placed
in GN.

Also i like Bristol De Mai i like is Course winner.
Has nice value around 25/1.
More near the race.

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Re: Aintree Grand National 2021

Postby meoldmate » Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:48 pm

I am not much of a stat man but appreciate members who are and put up good information with an angle on this type of viewing.

UnderdogsLover has mentioned three horses for this great race and after writing up the winner of the Irish National with no chance it wins at 150/1. So his three could be first, second and third.

Mister Marlarki I like this horse but Colin Tizzard horses are not just firing and be happy to look past this one

Vieux Lion Rouge another that I have followed and interesting horse at 40/1, can jump these fences well, possibly we seen the best of this one.

Bristol De Mai may need more rain to seen at his best.

Shrews has put up some good pointers too

The four Irish horses he has mentioned:

BURROWS SAINT can fit the bill nicely with him having speed to win twenty furlong races and stamina to win longer races and this distance looks well within his grasp, respected and understand why around 8/1. His mark of 156 does not look beyond him with being second at Fairyhouse last time out.

TOUT EST PERMIS Not in great form and has not won since January 2019 and after that was behind the above mentioned horse, giving that one thirteen pounds but well beaten.

ACEPELLO BOURGEOIS has a solid look about him and he beat Burrows Saint at Fairyhouse las time out.
He was in third place behind his stable mate Burrows Saint in the Irish Grand National in 2019 and gave the winner six pounds and was beaten over seven lengths.
My question is, would he want a test of stamina with this distance testing him.

MAGIC OF LIGHT the form of the run at Cheltenham when well beaten by Colreevy was not franked with the runners in the Irish National the other day and she may of been given that run to blow the cobwebs away after a break of 55 days.
She has shown she can deliver on second run and this year there is no Tiger Roll to worry about, who beat her 2 3/4 lengths in 2019 getting eight pounds from the winner.
Races off 156 for this race and three pounds more could be well within her ability, very big chance here with 20/1 or there about for a big run, with her shown she can jump these fences and stay.

Wizzyofc fascinating points with the trends.

ANIBALE FLY has form that ties in with ACEPELLO BOURGEOIS on last run and was getting six pounds from and was beaten 18 lengths On level weights here has something to find with that one.
Was fifth in this race in 2019 with a weight of 11-10 and was giving the second that day MAGIC OF LIGHT thirteen pounds, could easily turn the tables on this one with a pound difference this time around and that is a stone in hand with fourteen lengths to get back which this looks possible.
Tony Martin will have her ready and the run at Fairyhouse could of put an edge on her as this was her first run of the season. Might be looking after her mark of 155 as she raced off 164, nine pounds well in on that rating. Looks to have an excellent chance, the ground being good will be to her liking.

ALPHA DES OBEAUX trained by Mrs Denise Foster, I am not happy with her runners at present time, she has had two winners from 55 runners in the last fortnight and she may of had the second in the Irish National, this still does not help me think her stable is inspiring form. Has form to find with several of these and did fell in the 2018 when trained by Mouse Morris. Three pounds lower here and will need to be his best to upset a few that has been mentioned already.

SHATTERED LOVE another from the Mrs Denise Foster stable, has her work cut out to reverse form with a few of these. Being sired by Yeats may not have the stamina for the trip.

CHRIS'S DREAM weighted to be of some significant interest racing off 164 but he will ned to be at his best to beat The StoryTeller and this trip could be suitable but whether he be threatening to win, I am not sure.

LAKE VIEW LAD Scottish raider and will need to find to give Cloth Cap a run for first place and ground may of gone against him, unless there is a deluge of rain from now to Saturday.

BLAKLION as you kindly pointed out a chance and a very good chance at that, coming from the Dan Skelton stable. He was brought down in the 2018 running of the National when trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies and in 2017 he was fourth to One For Arthur giving the winner four pounds.
This twelve year old is so use carrying big weights, this 10-2 he has on his back will make him think, he has nothing on his back. Stays, jump these fences well enough and ground has come to his advantage.
Today he is racing off a mark of 145 in 2017 he raced off 152, in 2018 off 161. His rating today can give a very good angle of a big run appearing and his 50/1 price tag worthy of interest.

SUB LIEUTENANT was going to give this one a side way look but looking at his sire being Brian Boru and dam sire Satco, bred to stay. He has to turn the tables on a few of these and he is not a prolific winner of races but when the ground is in his favour he can deliver and the ground at Aintree could be to his liking and his 100/1 marker may be worth another look on the day, especially with trainer Henry De Broomhed stable in good order.

THE STORYTELLER ten year old with plenty of weight to carry and can he give it away, not sure
Coming from this stable is also a question mark with me, might be wrong in thinking this but just am.

NON RUNNER

What am I looking at, a good question with my earlier write up, I gave CLOTH CAP a mentioned.
Could easily question this one's chances, he has done everything right so far and at the right end of the handicap with a light weight, He is a nine year old with potential and connections like to win this race.
He was at the right end of the weights when winning at Newbury getting a stone from second place Aye Right. Staying looks to be in his stamina set up with a pedigree that can acknowledge this.
He beat a small field at Kelso with two of the national field in behind DEFINITLY RED and LAKE VIEW LAD and that does not give me a great lot of form to go to war with, matter of fact only beat what was put against him, can he make all here, would be a great thing to do here, will be missing any trouble out front, only the fences to worry about.

MINELLA TIMES this eight year old is by a sire I like in Oscar and this Henry De Broomhead trained could be of significant interest here and I can see Rachael Blackmore taking the ride.
This distance should not be a concern as he is a twenty furlongs winner and placed and these horses seem to be capable of staying extreme distances such as this national race.
The furthest he has raced is three miles and been second on both occasions
Here is an angle to think about, he was only beaten 1/2 length by Off You Go at Fairyhouse and that one ran a gallant sixth in the Irish National. Back in 2019 Off You GO was second to Tiger Roll, bit of a pointer to ponder with.
Been a market move from 33/1 to 11/1, someone fancy this ones chances.

There are my thoughts on those that have been highlighted and a couple that I have mentioned.
Aiming at trying to find the winner and hopefully not have egg on my face, like the Irish National.
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