Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

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Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby TeddyT » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:46 am

I thought it might be a good idea if we had a thread that looked at the merits (or flaws) of the horses considered to be the favourites or main contenders for the 2019 Grand National.

I’ll add my current thoughts on a couple and then it would be good if some other members could chip in with their thoughts or a profile of a horse they like (or dislike) the chances of.
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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby TeddyT » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:49 am

TIGER ROLL

The 2018 Grand National winner had been dismissed by many pundits prior to winning the big race in April due to his diminutive stature but his lack of size did not noticeably count against him. Any mistake the horse made was never enough to stop his momentum, although Davy Russell did appear to lose an iron at one stage but managed to retain control very quickly. It might also be worth remembering that Becher’s on the second circuit was not jumped and that fence, particularly when horses are starting to get tired, usually catches one of the leaders out at that point. Really though it is churlish to try to diminish Tiger Roll’s achievement at Aintree as it was a remarkable performance, coming as it did on the back of a win at the Cheltenham Festival in the Cross Country Chase. Few horses would have the tenacity to win two such high profile races in relatively close proximity to each other, so the horse, Russell and trainer Gordon Elliott deserve all the plaudits.

As mentioned earlier, the horse’s size was enough to put a lot of people off his National chances (myself included) but this horse keeps confounding his critics and, with that in mind, perhaps it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could finally be the horse to bring an end to the most well-known of Grand National stats; no horse has retained the Grand National since Red Rum.

Before the 2018 race there was talk that the heavy ground was against him so, you would assume, that if the ground was better in 2019 that would not be a negative to his chances. What will be a hindrance is the fact that he has been put up 9lb for the handicapper for winning the 2018 National. When you consider that One For Arthur was raised 8lb, Rule The World 5lb and Many Clouds 7lb it could be argued that a 9lb rise for a head victory is probably on the cautious side by the handicapper, especially as the horse has already had seventeen starts over fences so may not have the scope to improve to his new mark.

Tiger Roll has understandably been installed as the ante-post favourite for the 2019 National but I would have to be against him due to the fact that he will have to carry so much extra weight. However, he is the sort of horse that breaks the rules, so I couldn’t totally rule him out of becoming the first back to back winner for thirty-five years.
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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby TeddyT » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:09 am

BELLSHILL

The bookmakers have installed Willie Mullins’ Punchestown Gold Cup winner as second favourite for the 2019 Grand National at this early stage but, for me, it would be an amazing performance if he were to win a Grand National from his updated official rating.

The handicapper has raised his rating 8lbs to 168 following his victory at Punchestown and when you consider that Many Clouds is the highest rated chaser to win the Grand National in the last twenty years and that was from 8lb lower (160), then that puts some clarity on the task facing Bellshill if he is to line up.

In his last race in a handicap (when rated 158) he finished a gallant third (subsequently demoted to fifth) in the Irish National so it is surely very difficult to imagine him winning at Aintree with circa ten pounds more on his back. Obviously, the horse is trained by Willie Mullins, so he may be able to conjure up the required improvement but, for me, he looks very poor value as things stand.

On the plus side the horse is only 8 (will be 9 by the time of the National) and has had only seven races over fences but if he races off anywhere near his current mark he would have to be a superstar to win.
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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby TeddyT » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:10 am

If any of our members would like to have a close look at any of the early favourites for the 2019 Grand National it would be great to hear your views.
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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby Lescargot » Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:45 pm

Hello all

On the GNG site last year, pre Christmas I was promoting Final Nudge and Tiger Roll. At the moment I would like to return to FN. 2019 so far seems to have 10/15 horses at the front of the betting who if campaigned with 3/4+ preps in mind could all be at the wrong end of the handicap, many approaching/exceeding an OR of 155+. If like me and others on the old site a view is taken about weight since the 2013 changes, then we need to be looking at runners at around or 140 with 3/4+ preps pushing them up to 150/ max 152. Final Nudge in my view has many, not all of the elements of the profile of my type of GN contender. The problem is he started off last year with a very promising run in the Badger off OR 139 and achieved an RPR of 147 but ended up with an RPR of 117 and is now down to an OR of 138. So after the Badger it was all downhill. However, in the GN he was basically brought down with his jockey stating he had taken to the fences well. Okay , maybe he needs a wind op! maybe there was something undiscovered! but if they can get him back in some kind of order he will be at the right end of the h/cap. I have taken the plunge at 66/1.

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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby Daniel Edwards » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:34 am

I'm keeping an eye on BIG RIVER

he stayed out 3 miles in the mud in the Towton at Wetherby last season behind another decent horse, so he looks like a proper stayer to me

From One for Arthur's yard, so they know how to get it right. His profile so far looks nearly Identical to OFA so far, so I'll be keeping a keen eye on his early season form for sure.

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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby Daniel Edwards » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:36 am

Forgive me, I've got myself in a muddle. He didn't run in the Towton, it was the 3m novice chase in the mud on Midlands national day

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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby Daniel Edwards » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:42 am

And just to finish on Big River, he beat shantou flyer by 4.5l getting 8lb from him last season, and shantou's next run was 2nd in the ultima at Cheltenham.

Shantou raced off 152 that day, so if you took a literal interpretation of the form, big river showed as a high 140s horse already.

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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby UnderdogsLover » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:39 pm

Blacklion

Be 10 years old next year....
Could be the for gotton horse, so year older will help him
be in right age bracket..
Unlucky this years did nt get very far, can forgive him for that,
Had Blacklion got another place he would of been bound to be
near favourites.

But was 4th the year be for, so stays...
Hoping this season will do better, and year older, will pick
up nice prize along the season..
sure being going for the Aintree trail again in December..
His nice Ew at 33/1 nice value, win a nice race or 2 by
Come by February, will be amongst the faviourites again..

He one more am following this year, so few more horses
to sort out :) , be for they under way again...

Yay jumping season getting nearer....

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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby Lescargot » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:22 am

Hello all on the matter of Snow Falcon I backed him the other day as he is obviously well handicapped over fences. I have been watching him. He has the class 1 hurdle form I like and there is room in his OR.His dosage looks good, I have no CMP. However, on the 14/2/16 trainer comments stated he had back problems which caused his jumping problems over hurdles but he "stayed all day". The contradictions are that his jumping issues persist and on his last run it was clear that the grd conditions helped his jumping but he was all out at the end, maybe idled a bit. There are plenty of form book comments which describe him travelling well but weaking at the business end around 24f, particularly in the stayers, so its not clear whether he is a weak finisher or he actually doesnt really stay. In the Irish GN he ur at the 13 out of 23 fences, so a bit early to say.His trainer states may go for the Ladbrokes or the Munster. It would help if someone has access to his CMP and if he can finish off a race over either of those races he would be worth a bet. Incidentally prior to the GN in April I carried out an analysis based on 2 simple stats : runners with 4+ preps ( old GN bloggers will know that I am keen on preps) and on DSLR between 21 and 42 days. There were 11 candidates and in those 11 there was the winner, the 3rd, 4th and 6th.I know its only 1 set of stats and matmatically therefore statiscally unreliable, but interesting.

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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby Daniel Edwards » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:45 am

I'll check that theory against previous year's, see how it holds up.

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Re: Grand National 2019 – The main contenders

Postby Daniel Edwards » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:31 am

In 2017 there were 12 that fitted that brief

Finished 2nd, 10th, and then here there and everywhere

In 2016 there were 16 runners, including 1st 4th 5th and 7th

2015 I don't have all the data (but 1st 3rd and 6th met it)

2014, again I don't have all the data, but 1st and 3rd hit the stat

2013, 11 runners, 1st 4th 6th all hitting it

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