Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

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Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:18 pm

Year Winner Brilliant Intermediate Classic Solid Professional DI CD Total S+F
2017 One For Arthur 4 0 9 4 1 0.89 0.11 18 5
2016 Rule The World 4 2 3 7 4 0.6 -0.25 20 11
2015 Many Clouds 2 1 15 4 0 0.91 0.05 22 4
2014 Pineau De Re 0 0 1 1 0 0.33 -0.5 2 1
2013 Auroras Encore 5 0 10 5 4 0.71 -0.13 24 9
2012 Neptune Collonges 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 2 2
2011 Ballabriggs 1 1 2 4 2 0.43 -0.5 10 6
2010 Don't Push It 6 5 12 4 1 1.55 0.39 28 5
2009 Mon Mome 1 1 2 0 0 3 0.75 4 0
2008 Comply or Die 2 0 6 4 0 0.71 0 12 4
2007 Silver Birch 2 0 4 8 6 0.25 -0.8 20 14
2006 Numbersixvalverde 2 0 0 6 2 0.25 -0.6 10 8
2005 Hedgehunter 8 3 8 2 7 1.15 0.11 28 9
2004 Amberleigh House 5 1 8 2 4 1 0.05 20 6
2003 Monty's Pass 3 4 6 0 7 1 -0.2 20 7
2002 Bindaree 1 1 3 4 1 0.54 -0.3 10 5
2001 Red Marauder 5 0 1 0 0 11 1.67 6 0
2000 Papillon 0 1 4 1 6 0.33 -1 12 7
1999 Bobbyjo 5 1 4 6 4 0.67 -0.15 20 10
1998 Earth Summit 3 0 11 2 0 1.13 0.25 16 2
Minimum 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0
Maximum 8 5 15 8 7 11 1.67 28 14
Mean 2.95 1.05 5.45 3.3 2.45 1.3225 -0.1025 15 6
Mode 2 0 4 4 0 0.33 0.11 20 5
Median 2.5 1 4 4 1.5 0.71 -0.14 17 6

** The Dosage Index (DI) for Red Marauder appears incorrect, but I have double-checked by creating a fictitious horse with the same parentage and it is correct. I can only assume he had an old shire horse somewhere in his ancestry (no wonder he was a 100/1 winner) :D

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:19 pm

This year's horses

Number Horse Brilliant Intermediate Classic Solid Professional DI CD Total S+F
1 MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 3 2 8 4 1 1 0.11 19 5
2 BLAKLION 3 0 15 4 0 0.91 0.09 23 4
3 ANIBALE FLY (FR) 1 2 9 3 5 0.6 -0.45 20 8
4 THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 4 2 7 3 2 1.12 0.17 19 5
5 VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 2 1 3 0 0 3 0.83 10 0
6 TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 2 2 11 2 1 1.12 0.11 19 3
7 ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 3 1 6 4 0 1 0.21 15 4
8 GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 0 5 1 4 2 0.85 -0.25 13 6
9 PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 1 0 12 7 2 0.47 -0.41 22 9
10 SHANTOU FLYER 3 2 13 3 1 1.1 0.14 23 4
11 TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 0 0 5 1 2 0.45 -0.63 8 3
12 CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 4 0 6 4 0 1 0.29 15 4
13 VICENTE (FR) 0 0 1 1 0 0.33 -0.5 2 1
14 TIGER ROLL (IRE) 2 0 15 9 0 0.58 -0.19 26 9
15 REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 4 0 15 5 2 0.79 -0.04 27 7
16 VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 1 2
17 CHASE THE SPUD 2 1 8 4 5 0.54 -0.45 20 9
18 WARRIORS TALE 5 0 6 2 1 1.33 0.43 16 3
19 SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 3 0 6 3 0 1 0.25 13 3
20 GAS LINE BOY (IRE) 3 0 13 2 2 0.9 0 21 4
21 THE DUTCHMAN 4 1 7 4 0 1.13 0.31 17 4
22 PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 0 1 1 4 4 0.18 -1.1 9 8
23 UCELLO CONTI (FR) 1 0 6 3 0 0.67 -0.1 11 3
24 SAINT ARE (FR) 0 0 6 8 2 0.23 -0.75 15 10
25 BEEVES (IRE) 3 4 11 4 0 1.32 0.27 24 4
26 RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 0 0 5 5 2 0.26 -0.75 12 7
27 I JUST KNOW (IRE) 0 0 5 1 0 0.71 -0.17 7 1
28 VIRGILIO (FR) 1 0 1 2 0 0.6 0 5 2
29 BAIE DES ILES (FR) 4 1 5 2 2 1.15 0.21 15 4
30 MAGGIO (FR) 5 1 7 1 0 2.11 0.71 17 1
31 PENDRA (IRE) 2 0 10 4 0 0.78 0 17 4
32 BUYWISE (IRE) 2 2 10 2 0 1.29 0.25 18 2
33 CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 0 1 3 4 2 0.33 -0.72 10 6
34 HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 2 0 13 5 0 0.74 -0.05 21 5
35 LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) 2 0 6 8 2 0.38 -0.44 18 10
36 CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 3 2 8 7 0 0.82 0.05 21 7
37 BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) 3 2 10 9 2 0.63 -0.19 26 11
38 MILANSBAR (IRE) 2 0 8 4 6 0.43 -0.6 20 10
39 FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 2 0 10 4 0 0.78 0 17 4
40 DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 0 0 0 4 12 0 -1.75 14 16
41 ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 1 0 7 2 4 0.47 -0.57 14 6
42 DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE) 3 1 12 10 0 0.63 -0.12 27 10
43 THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE) 0 1 1 4 2 0.23 -0.88 7 6
44 WALK IN THE MILL (FR) 1 0 11 6 0 0.57 -0.22 18 6
45 VINTAGE CLOUDS (IRE) 3 1 10 4 0 1 0.17 19 4

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:46 pm

This year's most likely winners using Dosage

First Elimination Criteria - remove any horse outside the min/max of the last 20 winners for any of the dosage figures. This eliminates six:

Tiger Roll - scores 9 for 'Solid', whereas the highest in the last 20 years was 8 (Silver Birch)
Bless The Wings - scores 9 for 'Solid'
Delusionofgrandeur - scores 10 for 'Solid'
Double Ross - scores 12 for 'Professional', whereas the highest in the last 20 years was 7 (Hedgehunter, Monty's Pass)
Vieux Lion Rouge - scores 1 for the 'Dosage TOTAL, whereas the lowest in the last 20 years was 2 (Pineau De Re, Neptune Collonges)
Pleasant Company - scores -1.1 for CD, whereas the lowest in the last 20 years was -1 (Papillon, Neptune Collonges)

Second Elimination Criteria - remove any horse 'unlikely' based on min/max of the last 20 winners

Only one horse scored higher than 12 for Classic in the last 20 years (Many Clouds, 15) - therefore I feel it safe to remove the following:

Blaklion (15)
Regal Encore (15)
Shantou Flyer (13)
Gas Line Boy (13)
Houblon Des Obeaux (13)

Only two horses scored higher than 6 for 'Solid' in the last 20 years (Rule The World 7, Silver Birch 8). I feel it's safe to remove:

Saint Are 8
Lord Windermere 8
Perfect Candidate 7
Captain Redbeard 7

15 eliminated so far. More eliminations to follow......

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:19 pm

In the last 20 year's only two horses scored higher than 1.55 for the Dosage Index (Red Marauder 11 and Mon Mome 3). This eliminates:

Maggio 2.11

In the last 20 year's only two horses scored higher than 0.39 for the Centre Of Distribution (Red Marauder 1.67 and Mon Mome 0.75).This eliminates :

Valseur Lido 0.83
Warriors Tale 0.43

In the last 20 year's only two horses scored lower than 0.8 for the Centre Of Distribution (Papillion and Neptune Collonges both -1 ).This eliminates :

Thunder and Roses -0.88

In the last 20 year's only two horses have scored lower than 4 for the 'TOTAL' (Pineau De Re and Neptune Collonges, both 2). This eliminates:

Vicente 2

This eliminates 5 more and a total of 20

More eliminations to follow.......

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:42 pm

So, 20 eliminated and leaves the 25 below:

1 MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)
2 ANIBALE FLY (FR)
3 THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)
4 TOTAL RECALL (IRE)
5 ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)
6 GOLD PRESENT (IRE)
7 TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)
8 CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)
9 CHASE THE SPUD
10 SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
11 THE DUTCHMAN
12 UCELLO CONTI (FR)
13 BEEVES (IRE)
14 RAZ DE MAREE (FR)
15 I JUST KNOW (IRE)
16 VIRGILIO (FR)
17 BAIE DES ILES (FR)
18 PENDRA (IRE)
19 BUYWISE (IRE)
20 CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)
21 MILANSBAR (IRE)
22 FINAL NUDGE (IRE)
23 ROAD TO RICHES (IRE)
24 WALK IN THE MILL (FR)
25 VINTAGE CLOUDS (IRE)

Next elimination,

16 of the last 20 had a dosage TOTAL in double figures. This eliminates:

Tenor Nivernais 8
I Just Know 7
Virgilio 5

17 of the last 20 had a Solid + Professional in single figures. This eliminates:

Milansbar 10

17 of the last 20 had an Intermediate score more than 3. This eliminates:

Gold Present 5
Beeves 4

16 of the last 20 had a Classic score in single figures. This eliminates:

Total Recall 11
Walk In The Mill 11
Pendra 10
Buywise 10
Final Nudge 10
Vintage Clouds 10

16 of the last 20 had a Dosage Index lower than 1.13. This eliminates:

The Dutchman 1.13
Baie Des Iles 1.15

This eliminates another 14 and leaves a longlist of 11

1 MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)
2 ANIBALE FLY (FR)
3 THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)
4 ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)
5 CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)
6 CHASE THE SPUD
7 SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
8 UCELLO CONTI (FR)
9 RAZ DE MAREE (FR)
10 CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)
11 ROAD TO RICHES (IRE)

More eliminations to follow....

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:14 pm

Taking the mean average of the mean, mode, median averages (mean+mode+median / 3) = the following:

Brilliant 2.48
Intermediate 0.68
Classic 4.48
Solid 3.77
Professional 1.32
DI 0.79
CD -0.04
Total 17.40
S+F 5.42


Horse Brilliant Intermediate Classic Solid Professional DI CD Total S+F
MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 3 2 8 4 1 1 0.11 19 5
ANIBALE FLY (FR) 1 2 9 3 5 0.6 -0.45 20 8
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 4 2 7 3 2 1.12 0.17 19 5
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 3 1 6 4 0 1 0.21 15 4
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 4 0 6 4 0 1 0.29 15 4
CHASE THE SPUD 2 1 8 4 5 0.54 -0.45 20 9
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 3 0 6 3 0 1 0.25 13 3
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 1 0 6 3 0 0.67 -0.1 11 3
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 0 0 5 5 2 0.26 -0.75 12 7
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 0 1 3 4 2 0.33 -0.72 10 6
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 1 0 7 2 4 0.47 -0.57 14 6

The furthest two away from the averages in each category are:

Average of Averages 2.48 0.68 4.48 3.77 1.32 0.79 -0.04 17.40 5.42
Brilliant Intermediate Classic Solid Professional DI CD Total S+F Amount
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 0.52 1.32 3.52 0.23 -0.32 0.21 0.15 2 0 0
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) -1.48 1.32 4.52 -0.77 3.68 -0.19 -0.41 3 3 0
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 1.52 1.32 2.52 -0.77 0.68 0.33 0.21 2 0 0
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 0.52 0.32 1.52 0.23 -1.32 0.21 0.25 -2 -1 1
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 1.52 -0.68 1.52 0.23 -1.32 0.21 0.33 -2 -1 1
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) -0.48 0.32 3.52 0.23 3.68 -0.25 -0.41 3 4 1
MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 0.52 -0.68 1.52 -0.77 -1.32 0.21 0.29 -4 -2 2
CHASE THE SPUD -1.48 -0.68 1.52 -0.77 -1.32 -0.12 -0.06 -7 -2 3
ANIBALE FLY (FR) -2.48 -0.68 0.52 1.23 0.68 -0.53 -0.71 -6 2 4
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) -2.48 0.32 -1.48 0.23 0.68 -0.46 -0.68 -8 1 4
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) -1.48 -0.68 2.52 -1.77 2.68 -0.32 -0.53 -4 1 4

Therefore

ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 0
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 0
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 0

The above three are closest to the average of averages

THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 1
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 1
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 1

The above three create the shortlist of six

This eliminates:

MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 2

CHASE THE SPUD 3

ANIBALE FLY (FR) 4
RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 4
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 4

Final elimination to follow...

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:55 pm

The final shortlist:

ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)
UCELLO CONTI (FR)
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE)

Adjusting the averages taking out the mins and maxes from each category gives mean. modes and medians of:

Brilliant Intermediate Classic Solid Professional DI CD
Mean average 3.19 1.60 5.53 3.63 3.18 0.86 -0.10
Mode 2.00 1.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.33 0.11
Median 3.00 1.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.71 -0.13
Average of averages 2.73 1.20 4.51 3.88 3.73 0.63 -0.04

Therefore, of the shortlist, here are the horses closest and furthest away from the adjusted average:

Brilliant Intermediate Classic Solid Professional DI CD Amount
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) -2.21 0.12 -0.99 -3.64 -4.04 -0.42 0.19 0
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT -4.21 0.12 0.01 -4.64 -0.04 -0.82 -0.37 1
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) -1.21 0.12 -1.99 -4.64 -3.04 -0.30 0.25 3
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) -2.21 -0.88 -2.99 -3.64 -5.04 -0.42 0.29 4
UCELLO CONTI (FR) -1.21 -1.88 -2.99 -3.64 -5.04 -0.42 0.37 4
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) -3.21 -0.88 -0.99 -3.64 -0.04 -0.88 -0.37 4

And therefore,

ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 0
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 1
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 3
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 4
UCELLO CONTI (FR) 4
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 4

Therefore my top 3 based on Dosage are:

1st - ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 40/1
2nd - SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 16/1
3rd - THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 16/1

Can Rachael Blackmore become the first female jockey to win the Grand National ? She would possibly win SPOTY too at twice the odds!

:D

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby The Snail » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:58 am

Great work Shrews. I must admit dosage is always an area that has just sat outside my area of racing knowledge but it was certainly an interesting read so tanks for adding another angle to the Grand national PICTURE

Even more so because I've always had a soft spot for Alpha Des Obeaux but I was put off by his questionable form at longer distances. I might now be tempted to have a small wager now though!

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby JamPizza » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:44 pm

+1 with what The Snail said. Totally agree that it's a fascinating angle to approach the race and thanks Shrews for taking the time to post.

Alpha Des Obeaux was also on my radar so good luck with that one.

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby bazakehurst » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:58 pm

A lot of tipsters seem to be picking SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT and LAST SAMURI in their “predicted top four” tips, so ALPHA DES OBEAUX is in very good company there. Probably worth an EW punt, at the very least.

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:38 pm

Well, I was expecting about half the field to be eliminated at the first elimination stage but when only six got booted it became a labour of love for a few hours. I'm not sure how much credence it'll have, but it's got to be better than just sticking in a pin :D

My choice is Road To Riches who made the top 6 here, which was a welcome bonus. If he doesn't get in I will probably have a fun bet on Alpha Des Obeaux but otherwise it's all Road To Riches for me.

The biggest shock was the Dosage Index of 11 for Red Marauder which still doesn't appear right to me as the next highest was 3 (Mon Mome). However, the double-check showed it was right (but still, hmmm :? )

Other notables:
Red Rum DI was 0.6
Crisp 1.22
Party Politics 0.44
Seagram 0.13
Garrison Savannah 0.65

so 11 for Red Marauder just seems wrong.

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby The Snail » Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:01 pm

** The Dosage Index (DI) for Red Marauder appears incorrect, but I have double-checked by creating a fictitious horse with the same parentage and it is correct. I can only assume he had an old shire horse somewhere in his ancestry (no wonder he was a 100/1 winner) :D

This line was a particular highlight! The back story of a horse born in the ghetto, an illicit love child of a prime stallion and old farmer Giles' work horse!

Good news about Road to Riches! Gigginstown 1 - 2!?

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