Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Shrews
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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Shrews » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:16 pm

Actually, just done a bit of research on this and the Dosage Index is influenced primarily by 'speed'. So looking at some speedsters from old:

Dayjur - 2.85
Lyric Fantasy - 2.67
Black Caviar - 3.0
Limato - 0.5
Pastoral Pursuits - 5.0
Cadeaux Genereux - 1.91

None come close to the sprinting dosage prowess of Red Marauder, however he completely missed his true vocation in life by running in stamina events over jumps. The mind boggles. :P

To be fair to connections, he probably wouldn't have been great as a sprinter. Fantastic over one furlong but would never have lasted home the full five. :D

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby The Snail » Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:40 pm

Actually, just done a bit of research on this and the Dosage Index is influenced primarily by 'speed'. So looking at some speedsters from old:

Dayjur - 2.85
Lyric Fantasy - 2.67
Black Caviar - 3.0
Limato - 0.5
Pastoral Pursuits - 5.0
Cadeaux Genereux - 1.91

None come close to the sprinting dosage prowess of Red Marauder, however he completely missed his true vocation in life by running in stamina events over jumps. The mind boggles. :P

To be fair to connections, he probably wouldn't have been great as a sprinter. Fantastic over one furlong but would never have lasted home the full five. :D
If only that looked at the dosage! He could have been first out the stalls in the Epsom dash each year!

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:00 pm

I've used dosage myself on the GNG site. Although I've not done it in the same way. Careful of horses like Royal Athlete who has no points and his DI and CD are infinity.

I used to considered those with 6 or less points as dosage weak. For the purpose of analyse I would discount them, but you really can't ignore anything really. Last year I tried Conduit Mare Profile and mixed it up with dosage which gave me the first two.

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Hallo Dandy » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:22 pm

Hi

I used to follow the old GNG blog which was very informative & helpful.

Can anyone help with where to find a horses CMP?

Thanks

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:44 am

Hi

I used to follow the old GNG blog which was very informative & helpful.

Can anyone help with where to find a horses CMP?

Thanks
I use the site Pedigree enquiry but for the CMP figures but you've got to pay.
Formerly known as Lucky Vane on Grand National Blog

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Hallo Dandy » Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:05 pm

Hi

I used to follow the old GNG blog which was very informative & helpful.

Can anyone help with where to find a horses CMP?

Thanks
I use the site Pedigree enquiry but for the CMP figures but you've got to pay.
Thanks LV
Can you kindly post the CMP for Rock The Kasbah. It’s quoted that the GN is a possibility.

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:50 am

Rock The Kasbah whose sire is Straight Stike and dam is Shagolvin has a dosage of 15-4-7-0-0 (26) DI 6.43 CD 1.31. It's CMP is 9-2-4-11-6 Speed 11 Stamina 17 Index 0.89 Triads 15, 17, 21

I was also looking at Rock, but while not impossible it's Stamina figures doesn't fit with recent winners 🤷‍♂️
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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:57 am

I'll be posting a full look of dosage figures and Conduit Mare Profile figures when the full list is out in January/ February and seeing which ones fits best. 🕵️‍♂️
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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:13 pm

First to understand the Dosage Profile I feel I must explain it in full. Used to do this regularly on the old Grand National site. 🤔

Dosage use the figures produced by certain sires, called Chef-de-Race. This depends on how far back a Chef-De-Race appears in a horse's ancestry it's Sire will have 16 points, Grand Sire 8 each, Great Grand Sire 4 each and finally a Great Great Grand Sire 2 points each. Those Sires which are not Chef De Race Sires have nil points.

Next these points fall into 5 different categories call Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional. It's where they lie that determines it's Dosage Profile (DP) , Dosage Index (DI) and Centre Of Distribution (CD)

The DP is simply a case of adding all the numbers together and can be anywhere from 0 to 64 inclusive but must always be even. I reckon those less than 10 are weak in dosage and above 20 are strong. However to ignore those weak on dosage alone might prove folly.

The DI can be found by dividing the sum of the Brilliant, Intermediate and half those of classic with the sum of the other half of classic, Solid and Professional.

This is why Red Marauder DI is 11.00 it's 5.50 divided by 0.5


A figure of 1.00 shows balance between speed and stamina, above means more speed, less more stamina.


The CD can be calculated by doubling the Brilliant and then adding the Intermediate (single) then subtracting the sum of double professional and solid(single) and then dividing the answer by it's DP. The answer should lie between -2.00 and +2.00 an answer of 0.00 is balanced while a negative figure shows a lean towards longer distance a positive figure shows a sign of shorter distances.


The DI and CD are always expressed to 2 decimal places.


The dosage was developed by Stephen A. Roman, PhD of Shell (the oil company) for the Kentucky Derby and is best used for flat racing rather than National Hunt but in a true run race it could work.
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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:45 pm

The Conduit Mare Profile is similar to the dosage in that its made up of the Mare's instead of the Sire's and goes back to the Great Great Grand Mare.
It contains five sets of numbers similar to the Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional figures of the Dosage Profile. The important figures are Speed which are the two figures on the left added together, Stamina which are the two on the right added together and the triads which are the left three , the centre three and the right three added together. The is also an index figure.

Most winners of the National contains a stamina figure of between 12 to 16, don't know why though. While a Speed Figure of upto 11 has been the max in my sample.

Can't say too much about the Conduit Mare Profile as I'm not an expert, it's just observations 🕵️‍♂️
Formerly known as Lucky Vane on Grand National Blog

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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:33 pm

Like Shrew who open this topic I'm going to publish the last twenty winners and their dosage profile and also their Conduit Mare Profile.

2018 Tiger Roll
DP = 2-0-15-9-0 (26) DI = 0.58 CD = -0.19
CMP = 4-4-4-10-5 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.67 Triads = 12-18-19

2017 One For Arthur
DP = 4-0-9-4-1 (18) DI = 0.89 CD = 0.11
CMP = 7-3-2-8-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.73 Triads = 12-13-18

2016 Rule The World
DP = 4-2-3-7-4 (20) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.25
CMP = 5-5-4-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 14-18-19

2015 Many Clouds
DP = 2-1-15-4-0 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = 0.05
CMP = 4-5-5-5-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.60 Triads = 14-15-20

2014 Pineau De Re
DP = 0-0-1-1-0 (2) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.50
CMP = 5-1-5-10-3 Speed = 6 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.76 Triads = 11-16-18

2013 Auroras Encore
DP = 5-0-10-5-4 (24) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.13
CMP = 4-5-5-10-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.67 Triads = 14-20-21

2012 Neptune Collonges
DP = 0-0-0-2-0 (2) DI = 0.00 CD = -1.00
CMP = 2-0-7-6-6 Speed = 2 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.44 Triads = 9-13-19

2011 Ballabriggs
DP = 1-1-2-4-2 (10) DI = 0.43 CD = -0.50
CMP = 2-3-9-9-4 Speed = 5 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.62 Triads = 14-21-22

2010 Don't Push It
DP = 6-5-12-4-1 (28) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.39
CMP = 3-6-2-7-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.52 Triads = 11-15-18

2009 Mon Mome
DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
CMP = 3-7-4-12-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.71 Triads = 14-23-20

2008 Comply or Die
DP = 2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI = 0.71 CD = 0.00
CMP = 5-5-5-8-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-18-17

2007 Silver Birch
DP = 2-0-4-8-6 (20) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.80
CMP = 3-1-7-5-10 Speed = 4 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.44 Triads = 11-13-22

2006 Numbersixvalverde
DP = 2-0-0-6-2 (10) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.60
CMP = 5-3-5-5-10 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.60 Triads = 13-13-20

2005 Hedgehunter
DP = 8-3-8-2-7 (28) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.11
CMP = 5-6-1-9-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 12-16-16

2004 Amberleigh House
DP = 5-1-8-2-4 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.05
CMP = 6-1-7-4-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.74 Triads = 14-12-19

2003 Monty's Pass
DP = 3-4-6-0-7 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = -0.20
CMP = 5-2-2-8-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.54 Triads = 9-12-18

2002 Bindaree
DP = 1-1-3-4-1 (10) DI = 0.54 CD = -0.30
CMP = 4-3-9-4-10 Speed = 7 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.61 Triads = 16-16-23

2001 Red Marauder
DP = 5-0-1-0-0 (6) DI = 11.00 CD = 1.67
CMP = 4-2-4-8-7 Speed = 6 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.54 Triads = 10-14-19

2000 Papillon
DP = 0-1-4-1-6 (12) DI = 0.33 CD = -1.00
0-6-3-8-8 Speed = 6 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.33 Triads = 9-17-19

1999 Bobbyjo
DP = 5-1-4-6-4 (20) DI = 0.67 CD = -0.15
CMP = 7-2-3-4-11 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.66 Triads = 12-9-18
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Re: Aintree Grand National Dosage Trends

Postby Grittar82 » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:06 am

Let's analyse the dosage I said that a DP under 10 IE 0 to 8 is weak, 20% of our sample is below 10 points (IE 0 to 8). The DI and CD of these horses can be anything, in fact just outside our sample the 1995 Winner Royal Athlete had no points in dosage, it's DI and CD was infinity.

A further 30% had DP of between 10 to 18 points, their DI and CD get a little more meaningful.

2017 One For Arthur DP = 4-0-9-4-1 (18) DI = 0.89 CD = 0.11
2011 Ballabriggs DP = 1-1-2-4-2 (10) DI = 0.43 CD = -0.50
2008 Comply or Die DP = 2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI = 0.71 CD = 0.00
2006 Numbersixvalverde DP = 2-0-0-6-2 (10) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.60
2002 Bindaree DP = 1-1-3-4-1 (10) DI = 0.54 CD = -0.30
2000 Papillon DP = 0-1-4-1-6 (12) DI = 0.33 CD = -1.00

Their DI and CD suggests stamina.

However 50% have a DP of 20 or above

2018 Tiger Roll DP = 2-0-15-9-0 (26) DI = 0.58 CD = -0.19
2016 Rule The World DP = 4-2-3-7-4 (20) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.25
2015 Many Clouds DP = 2-1-15-4-0 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = 0.05
2013 Auroras Encore DP = 5-0-10-5-4 (24) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.13
2010 Don't Push It DP = 6-5-12-4-1 (28) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.39
2007 Silver Birch DP = 2-0-4-8-6 (20) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.80
2005 Hedgehunter DP = 8-3-8-2-7 (28) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.11
2004 Amberleigh House DP = 5-1-8-2-4 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.05
2003 Monty's Pass DP = 3-4-6-0-7 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = -0.20
1999 Bobbyjo DP = 5-1-4-6-4 (20) DI = 0.67 CD = -0.15

We see our DI has a limit of 1.55 and CD of +0.39 thanks to Don't Push It, but only Hedgehunter and Amberleigh House have a DI and CD suggesting slightly more speed than stamina.
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