2018 Aintree Grand National

UnderdogsLover
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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby UnderdogsLover » Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:19 pm

Yay National getting nearer....
Ante post not rushing this year-- till they do Nr no bet thing..
Only done one so far Gas Line Boy, at 33/1 has a nice ring to it.. :D
But on my short list on EW be doing RAZ DE MEE yes another long shot,
am not puf off his age 13 either!! That record could be broken soon!!
plus he in form etc..

Well done meoldmate..
Watched a video of Mr Frisk winning and one thing for sure, ground will never be that fast again and I was screaming for the line that day :D
I was there that day, nice sunny think cold, forgot ones i did lol..
quite nice bringing back memories..
Can t wait at last its getting nearer..

pedigree6
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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby pedigree6 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:45 pm

Does General Principle’s rating/weight get raised for winning the Irish Grand National, thereby moving him up from 55 in the list to having a chance of getting into the race.
Immeadiate post race comments from Gordon said the horse had done enough, but knowing the O’Learys, if the horse has recovered well enough, they wouldn’t miss the chance of throwing another dart at a big race !
What do you think ?

Gman84
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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby Gman84 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:01 pm

Does General Principle’s rating/weight get raised for winning the Irish Grand National, thereby moving him up from 55 in the list to having a chance of getting into the race.
Immeadiate post race comments from Gordon said the horse had done enough, but knowing the O’Learys, if the horse has recovered well enough, they wouldn’t miss the chance of throwing another dart at a big race !
What do you think ?
His OR rating will chance but for the Grand National his alloted mark is set already. Weights are only effected if horses near the top drop out and its pushes up thw weight for the horses below.
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Arc Jimmy
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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby Arc Jimmy » Sun Apr 08, 2018 6:07 am

Just had a look at 5 day forecast for Liverpool area, moderate rainfall on Tuesday & Friday low to mid teens temperature wise with no frosts overnight, could well be good to soft for the best race of the year. !

1 of my now 3 ante posts is non runner, Cause Of Causes, got 40's 5 places for I Just Know now 25's .

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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby andystaff » Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:08 am

Narrowing The Field


The basic trends I use:
Age 8-11
Won over at least 26f or placed over at least 27f
Won or placed that season
Now we all know trends and stats are broken every year but these have been pretty solid over the last 10 years, age 10/10, stamina 9/10 & the form stat is a 9/10.
Basically if I feel a horse as too many negatives then I won’t consider.



MINELLA ROCCO
Top weight.
No form this season.
Only 1 chase win from 13 starts.
Fallen twice & unseated once since that win.
If Geraghty rides who is 0/7 on him (will probably be on Anibale).


BLAKLION
Finished over 8 lengths behind the winner last year off 11-1, 152, runs off 11-9, 161 this year.


ANIBALE FLY
No win over at least 26f or placed over at least 27f. (has won over 24 1/2f & placed over the Gold Cup trip though) …fine margins!


THE LAST SAMURI
Not able to win in 2016 off 10-8, 148, finishing 2nd or last year finishing 16th off 11-10, 161.

VALSEUR LIDO
No form this season.
Not won over 26f or placed over at least 27f.


TOTAL RECALL
2 falls & 1 unseated since 2016 is a concern.
A Westerner! Only 1 placed in the last 10 nationals, no win or place in the last 5 Scottish, Welsh, Irish or the Midland nationals, or the Eider chase or the 4 miler at Cheltenham.


ALPHA DES OBEAUX
His 3 chase wins have come over no further than 22f.
Had at least 10 chase starts over 3 mile or more and placed once over 24f.


GOLD PRESENT
Not won over 26f or placed over 27f.
Only run beyond 3 miles was last time out when he broke a blood vessel.
Trainer has never won it.


PERFECT CANDIDATE
Pulled up last year when weakened 25th, off 11-5, 156, runs off 11-2, 154 this year.


SHANTOU FLYER
No win over at least 24f or placed over at least 27f.
Last year weakened 24th, behind when pulled up off 11-5, 156, runs off 11-1, 153 this year.


TENOR NIVERNAIS
No form this season.
No win over 26f or placed over 27f.
Last year struggling 4 out and never on terms off 11-1, 152 runs off 11-0, 152 this year.


CARLINGFORD LOUGH
No form for over 2 years.
Pulled up when trying further than Gold Cup trip.
12yr old, no winners last 10yrs & only 3 placed.


VINCENTE
Fell at the first last year.
Probably go for a 3rd Scottish National win.


GO CONQUER
No win over at least 26f or placed over at least 27f.
Probably run in Topham.


TIGER ROLL
Apart from sometimes going through fences instead of over them can’t find too many negs.


REGAL ENCORE
Has won over 3 mile & placed in Ladbrokes Trophy, but not over 26f or 27f.
Finished 28 lengths behind the winner last year off 10-3, 150 runs off 10-12, 150 this year.
Wouldn’t want good ground.


VIEUX LION ROUGE
No form this season.
Finished 26 lengths behind the winner last year off 10-12, 149.
Finished 48 lengths behind the winner in 2016 off 10-5, 146.
Runs off 10-12, 150 this year.


RATHVINDEN
Doubtful runner.
Reported to have finished distressed after winning 4 miler at Cheltenham.


ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS
No win over at least 26f or placed over at least 27f.
2 falls from 10 chases.
Needs it soft or heavy.


CHASE THE SPUD
All his wins have come on soft or heavy.


WARRIORS TALE
Not raced beyond 3 miles.


SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
Only 1 prep run since long layoff through injury…the dreaded bounce factor!


GAS LINE BOY
Fell in 2015.
Finished 5th in 2017, 16 lengths behind the winner off 10-7, 144 runs off 10-10, 148 this year.
12 years old.


THE DUTCHMAN
No win 26f or placed over 27f (but has won over 25 1/2f)


PLEASANT COMPANY
No form this season.
No 26f win or 27f place.
Finished 9th last year stumbled badly when tracking leaders 25th, ridden after 3 out, off 10-12, 149 runs off 10-10 148 this year.


BELLSHILL
Unlikely to run, ran in Irish National (impeding my horse at the last…Git!)


UCELLO CONTI
All his wins came in France.
No 26f win or 27f place.
Finished 6th in 2016, 36 lengths behind the winner off 10-08, 149.
Unseated in 2017 at the 22nd.
Runs off 10-09, 147 this year.


SAINT ARE
12yr old.
No form this season.
Finished 2nd in 2015 off 10-06, 143.
Pulled up in 2016.
Finished 3rd in 2017 off 10-10, 147.
Runs of 10-09, 147 surely best chance for win purposes has gone.


BEEVES
No form this season.
No 26f win or 27f place.


RAZ DE MAREE
13yr old.
Unseated last year.
Finished 8th in 2014 over 37 lengths behind the winner off 10-03, 140 runs off 10-08, 146 this year.


I JUST KNOW
Only slight neg is having only won a class 3, does he possess the necessary class?
Has won 4 times & placed 4 times from 10 chases.


VIRGILIO
No form this season.
Has won over 25f but not raced beyond that.


BAIE DES LLES
7yr old (no winner since 1940).
A mare (no winner since 1951).
A grey (only 3 ever winners).
No female jockey has ever won.


MAGGIO
13yr old.
No form this season.
No win over at least 26f or placed over at least 27f.


PENDRA
No form this season.
Finished 13th in 2016 113 lengths behind the winner off 10-05, 146 runs off 10-07, 145 this year.
10th in Irish National in 2014 26 lengths behind the winner.


BUYWISE
No win over 26f or place over 27f.
Finished 12th in 2016, 83 lengths behind the winner off 10-10, 151 runs off 10-07, 145 this year.


CHILDRENS LIST
Only 1 chase win.
No form this season.
No win over 26f or place over 27f.


LORD WINDERMERE
12yr old.
No form this season.
Pulled up in 2015.
Finished 7th last year 28 lengths behind the winner off 10-10, 147 runs off 10-06, 144 this year.


CAPTAIN REDBEARD
No win over 26f or placed over 27f but has never raced beyond 25 1/2f.


HOUBLON DES OBEAUX
10th in 2017 42 lengths behind the winner off 10-12, 149 runs off 10-06,144 this year.


BLESS THE WINGS
13yr old.
Ran in the Irish National.
5 runs this season pu f 1 pu pu.


Now separating the good chance of a place from the good chance of a win.
PLACE
Blaklion
Saint Are
Gas Line Boy
Raz De Maree
The Last Samuri

WIN
Anibale Fly
Total Recall
Vincente
Tiger Roll
Rathvinden
Chase The Spud
Warriors Tale
Seeyouatmidnight
I Just Know
Captain Redbeard
The Dutchman
Gold Present


Now need 5 from those 12 and hope the winner is on right list!
1) I JUST KNOW
Generally makes the running which will be difficult but at least he will stay out of trouble.
There’s the doubt about having the class, but he did run well in a class 2 finishing 3rd behind Calett Mad who won his next 2, admittedly over hurdles, the 4th was Beware The Bear who won a class 1 NTO and the 6th was Final Nudge who went on to place in the Welsh National.
Has won over 30f and 4 wins & 4 places from 10 chase starts is not bad.


2) TIGER ROLL
3 time winner at the Cheltenham festival including the 4 miler & the Cross Country last time out.
5 wins & 6 placed efforts from 16 starts, form, stamina what’s not to like.


3) VINCENTE
If he lines up here and makes it over the first fence the 2 time Scottish National winner could go close for an owner who likes a national winner or 3.


4) WARRIORS TALE
Think I’m right in saying this was bought by Trevor Hemmings with the National in mind. Anyway a Midnight Legend same sire has Midnight Prayer who won the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2014 so should stay.


5) SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
The one prep and the dreaded bounce factor is a concern but has the class and the stamina after finishing 3rd in a Scottish National.



So that’s my final 5 (unless Vintage Clouds gets in) and how I got there, keep it simple…like me!
Good luck with your bets. :lol:

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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby meoldmate » Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:21 pm

andystaff great view, if you have hit the jackpot with a winner from your method, then we may have to look at your system for the ease with the way you came about this, as you stated "keep it easy". :)
I wish it was, matter of fact, wrote up a view on here and I am still not decided on who can win this great race, my reason for waiting so long is due to the ground, I heard it was chucking it down at Liverpool yesterday and any horse with a burden of weight will find it hard to carry this for over four miles and low weights have more in their balance, still thinking about CAPTAIN REDBEARD he was 100/1 now 50's, normally stay clear of these but he looks feasible, with ground suiting.

I see good to soft in places but mainly soft at present stage and I wondering about David Pipe charge VIEUX LION ROUGE who ran well in this race last year when finishing in sixth.

I have to wait until closer to the day to decide, good luck with your selections and a great read.
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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby Wallsendlad » Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:45 pm

Re quote from Arc Jimmy :-
"1 of my now 3 ante posts is non runner, Cause Of Causes, got 40's 5 places for I Just Know now 25's ."

Seems you missed the boat with I JUST KNOW, Jimmy. The EX' pointed this one out in February when it was 150/1 with bet365. 40/1 is still a very nice price to have though. Come race time I can imagine it will be less than 20s,

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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby meoldmate » Mon Apr 09, 2018 5:10 am

The boat will be always missed as bookies shorten everything once they become non runner no bet, if grabbing an anti post all well and good.

The Ex has done well to grab such a great price for a horse that has potential to run a big race and Smith horses are running well at this period of time, which is a good pointer about the stable being in rude health.
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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby Shrews » Mon Apr 09, 2018 5:10 pm

Road To Riches needs one more to come out to get a run and it's starting to look promising. If he does get the run then I won't be backing anything else, in fact I'm not even going to look at anything else, this guy will win doing handstands from the elbow.

(Ok, I know horse's don't have hands :P )

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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby Arc Jimmy » Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:30 pm

Re quote from Arc Jimmy :-
"1 of my now 3 ante posts is non runner, Cause Of Causes, got 40's 5 places for I Just Know now 25's ."

Seems you missed the boat with I JUST KNOW, Jimmy. The EX' pointed this one out in February when it was 150/1 with http://olbg.info/7/L40/D/words>bet365>. 40/1 is still a very nice price to have though. Come race time I can imagine it will be less than 20s,
Good luck mate, I could have got 50's 4 places but opted for 40's 5 places NRNB, are you Win or E/Way ?
Don't think I've backed anything more than 100/1 before.

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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby The Executioner » Mon Apr 09, 2018 7:30 pm

Shrews ........ Road To Riches needs two to come out https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32 ... t-a-glance
2017/18,50xNH HorsesTo Follow Part 1
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412906

2017/18, 50xNH Horses To Follow Part 2
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412907

2018 Grand National Ante Post
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413651

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Re: 2018 Aintree Grand National

Postby Wallsendlad » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:49 pm

Re quote from Arc Jimmy :-
"1 of my now 3 ante posts is non runner, Cause Of Causes, got 40's 5 places for I Just Know now 25's ."


Good luck mate, I could have got 50's 4 places but opted for 40's 5 places NRNB, are you Win or E/Way ?
Don't think I've backed anything more than 100/1 before.
[/quote]


I'm not brave enough to back it at win only :oops: :hope:
As Meoldmate alluded to, Sue Smiths horses are running well at this moment and Vintage Clouds is also worthy of a punt at 50/1 in some places who also have non runner no bet. Granted it needs 5 to come out but as its NRNB, its worth the risk. :hope: :cool:

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