Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

nors
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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby nors » Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:00 am

The weight carried of the last 12 winners.
11-3
10-1
10-0
11-3
10-2
10-4
10-0
10-9
09-7
09-9
10-2
9-11

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:31 am

The weight carried of the last 12 winners.
11-3
10-1
10-0
11-3
10-2
10-4
10-0
10-9
09-7
09-9
10-2
9-11
Nors, as mentioned in my first post, 17 of the last 20 winners carried 11-03 or less, the other 3 winners carried 11-10, 11-10 & 11-12

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby nors » Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:52 am

Looking at those weights i wonder if a low weighted and a horse with a dropping handicap mark may be the Each Way way to go?

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Derbz87 » Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:29 am

Looking at those weights i wonder if a low weighted and a horse with a dropping handicap mark may be the Each Way way to go?
No idea if they'll run him/if he'd get in and I won't be getting stung again antepost on him as I did for the Welsh National but the above has Vyta Du Roc written all over. Surely a fair bit better than 137 if they can get him firing, he was 8lbs higher when a pretty distant 5th last year. Ground may be lively enough for him if it's a dry week. He looks the best handicapped to me bar last years winner but Vicente's lost the plot. Vintage Clouds has been unlucky/novicey a few times looking set for at least 4th in the Ultima Chase before falling, would have been similar story in Peter Marsh when falling and was 3rd in National Trial so 134 looks lenient on him but he's far from guarenteed a run down there and similar case with the ground as VDR.

Of the ones I'm most drawn to and likely to get a run, Premier Bond at this stage 'looks' the right sort and will like the ground. Dancing Shadow could be overlooked given his connections, ignore Cheltenham and he was actually a very comfortable Edinburgh National winner on good ground and looked moderatly progressive. Looking Well may also fall under the underestimated/unfashonable yard bracket nearer the time if a likely runner.

The race looks much more interesting than the Gigginstown National being run tomorrow :eyebrows:

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Clearo611 » Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:53 pm

What about portrait king??. Old at 12 I know but caught the eye staying on (flying relatively speaking at the finish) in the Topham over an inadequate trip after not making the cut in the national and has run with some credit without setting the world alight in Eiders and Becher chases, but enough to more than warrant a second look. Low weight to carry and a mark that is lower than his best run in the Becher in Dec.

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:10 pm

5 day stage Update -

There are 40 horses declared at the 5 day stage and with a maximum field of 30, the bottom 10 will not get in the race unless others are pulled out -

-31441 Yala Enki (28) 7 11-12 Venetia Williams 151
232110 Label Des Obeaux (39) 6 11-9 Alan King 148
-413U2 Missed Approach (39) 7 11-9 Warren Greatrex 148
11-3PP Vivaldi Collonges (49) 8 11-9 Paul Nicholls 148
1-4304 Fine Rightly (97) 9 11-8 S R B Crawford 147
-P3126 Kruzhlinin (63) 10 11-7 Philip Hobbs 146
-F669F Vicente (14) 8 11-7 Paul Nicholls 146
512344 Arpege D'Alene (39) 7 11-6 Paul Nicholls 145
-12F12 Seldom Inn (28) 9 11-6 Sandy Thomson 145
2-5645 Virak (63) 8 11-5 Paul Nicholls 144
1-111F Battle Of Shiloh (92) 8 11-3 Tom George 142
24-70F Southfield Royale (37) 7 11-2 Neil Mulholland 141
62411P Dancing Shadow (39) 8 11-0 Victor Dartnall 139
7-2113 Premier Bond (37) 7 11-0 Nicky Henderson 139
-481P0 Straidnahanna (15) 8 10-13 Sue Smith 138
F-2126 Looking Well (49) 8 10-12 Nicky Richards 137
P0-733 Shotgun Paddy (56) 10 10-12 Emma Lavelle 137
1058-P Benbens (35) 12 10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 135
U-3528 Lessons In Milan (37) 9 10-10 Nicky Henderson 135
-51U0P Al Co (49) 12 10-10 Peter Bowen 135
F-6430 Another Hero (37) 8 10-10 Jonjo O'Neill 135
UF0206 Henri Parry Morgan (14) 9 10-10 Peter Bowen 135
222F3F Vintage Clouds (39) 7 10-9 Sue Smith 134
0-1F36 Sugar Baron (37) 7 10-9 Nicky Henderson 134
-35158 Buachaill Alainn (6) 10 10-9 Peter Bowen 134
534125 Blakemount (35) 9 10-9 Sue Smith 134
28PPP8 Firebird Flyer (13) 10 10-8 Evan Williams 133
2-2573 Warrantor (35) 8 10-8 Warren Greatrex 133
-5V231 Dawson City (44) 8 10-8 Polly Gundry 133
50P/41 Trustan Times (19) 11 10-7 Mark Walford 132
------------------------------------------------------------------
864B83 Portrait King (15) 12 10-6 Patrick Griffin 131
F1P362 Cogry (6) 8 10-6 Nigel Twiston-Davies 131
F-5222 Doing Fine (27) 9 10-4 Neil Mulholland 129
2-6F6P Alvarado (37) 12 10-4 Fergal O'Brien 129
183P4P Gone Too Far (73) 9 10-4 David Pipe 129
1P4509 Father Edward (15) 8 10-3 David Pipe 128
3064R5 Federici (27) 8 10-3 Donald McCain 128
5P4U-8 Man With Van (62) 11 10-2 Patrick Griffin 127
0-45P6 Baby Bach (27) 7 10-1 S R B Crawford 126
459344 Full Jack (77) 10 9-10 Pauline Robson 121

I have looked at 9 trends for the race

Firstly let's look at Age, All of the last 20 winners were aged between 7 & 11, we lose 5 here, Label Des Obeaux, Benbens, Al Co, Portrait King & Alvarado

Next up is Weight, 17 of the last 20 winners carried 11-03 or less, we lose 9 here, Yala Enki, Missed Approach, Vivaldi Collonges, Fine Rightly, Kruzhlinin, Vicente, Arpege D'Alene, Seldom Inn & Virak

Official Rating is next, All of the last 20 winners were rated less than 150, we lose none here.

Now we look at Recent Runs, 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts, we lose 11 here, Southfield Royale, Straidnahanna, Henri Parry Morgan, Buachaill Alainn, Firebird Flyer, Gone Too Far, Father Edward, Federici, Man With Van, Baby Bach & Full Jack

Next up is Last Run, 16 of the last 20 winners had their last run in March or April, we lose 2 here, Battle Of Shiloh & Shotgun Paddy

Season Runs is next, 18 of the last 20 winners had between 3 & 6 runs since October 1st, we lose 4 here, Looking Well, Blakemount, Trustan Times & Cogry

Next up is Season Wins, 16 of the last 20 winners had won since October 1st, we lose here, Lessons In Milan, Another Hero, Vintage Clouds, Sugar Baron, Warrantor & Doing Fine

The Winning Distance trend is next, 15 of the last 20 winners have previously won over further than 3 miles, we lose none here

The Distance Ran trend is next, 15 of the last 20 winners had ran in a race over 3m 4f or futher, we lose 1 here, Premier Bond

Dancing Shadow & Dawson City are the only 2 horses to have passed all of the 9 trends i have looked at.

Dancing Shadow can be backed at 33/1

Dawson City can be backed at 33/1

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby nors » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:47 pm

Micko70 as always has helped in highlighting the trends that will help us in finding a good bet on the race. I am happy following his advice and selections knowing he has covered loads of the trends.

I wondered whether other members could help with their angles and looking at the race from a different point of view?

Can we break down what looks like an intractable problem (finding the winner) by breaking the race down even further?

For example which trainer has the best record in chases?
Which trainer does best in Scotland?
Who has the most winners in April?
Which jockey has been booked specifically for the race?
Which jockey has had the most winning rides or best strike rate at Ayr?
Which owner has won the most money in Scotland?
Which horse is doing something he has already done?
What price are placed horses historically?


There are a 1000 smaller queries that can help us and by breaking it down even further and by looking at the problem a different way can this help us?

Most of us take the standard route to solving a problem can we look at it another way?

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Zipster » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:29 am

This is the route that I have taken this year......

Looking at runners aged between 7yo-11yo who are carrying no more than 11-3 (Excluding Claims), the race average OR is 137 this year and I am ruling out those who are exactly the average or +1lb as these have poor records so ignoring those running off 137 or 138. In terms of horse history I am looking for those who have made 3-6 starts that season, had previously ran over 3m1f or further and won over 3m or further. Then a couple of factors from their last runs, it must have been over 3m or further but not further than 4m and they must have finished in the first 6.

Since 2006 those trends have produced the winner every year with the exception of 2014 when the best finish was Trustan Times who finished 3rd, in 2003, 2006, 2009 & 2011 it produced the winner and the third, in 2010 it produced the first two home, in 2008 it had 3 of the first 4 home including the winner and in 2001 the only three qualifiers were the first three home in the race.

In total 12 of the 15 winners that it has produced since 1998 have gone on to score at no bigger than 20/1 which makes one of the three qualifiers this year stand out in PREMIER BOND.

Qualifiers
Premier Bond (16/1)
Sugar Baron (33/1)
Dawson City (33/1)
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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:43 am

This is the route that I have taken this year......

Looking at runners aged between 7yo-11yo who are carrying no more than 11-3 (Excluding Claims), the race average OR is 137 this year and I am ruling out those who are exactly the average or +1lb as these have poor records so ignoring those running off 137 or 138. In terms of horse history I am looking for those who have made 3-6 starts that season, had previously ran over 3m1f or further and won over 3m or further. Then a couple of factors from their last runs, it must have been over 3m or further but not further than 4m and they must have finished in the first 6.

Since 2006 those trends have produced the winner every year with the exception of 2014 when the best finish was Trustan Times who finished 3rd, in 2003, 2006, 2009 & 2011 it produced the winner and the third, in 2010 it produced the first two home, in 2008 it had 3 of the first 4 home including the winner and in 2001 the only three qualifiers were the first three home in the race.

In total 12 of the 15 winners that it has produced since 1998 have gone on to score at no bigger than 20/1 which makes one of the three qualifiers this year stand out in PREMIER BOND.

Qualifiers
Premier Bond (16/1)
Sugar Baron (33/1)
Dawson City (33/1)
Good luck with that, Premier Bond was still there in the mix but has failed to run beyond 3m 4f, which 15 of the last 20 and 9 of the last 10 have (8 of the last 10 winners had previously ran over 4m+)

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:19 pm

Firstly I'll eliminate with two trends

- Age, no winner below 7 or older than 11 since 1995 - eliminates 4
- Weight, only one winner above 11st 3lb since 1999 - eliminates 9

Leaves 18

Using the scale of win 10pts, 2nd 7pts, 3rd 6pts, 4th 2pts, 5th 1pt, these are the top trainers scoring 7pts or more

A.King (Wilts) 17
A.Parker (Dumfr) 10
H.Parrott (Glouces) 10
N.Twist-Davies 10
P.Bowen (Pembr) 10
P.Nicholls (Somer) 10
D.Pipe 9
S.Smith 8
F.O'Brien 7
JTR Dreaper 7

Just concentrating on these trainers, eliminates 11, leaving the following 7:

Straidnahanna (S.Smith) Age 8 11st 2lb
Henri Parry Morgan (P.Bowen) Age 9 10st 13lb
Vintage Clouds (S.Smith) Age 7 10st 12lb
Blakemount (S.Smith) Age 9 10st 12lb
Cogry (N.Twiston-Davies) Age 8 10st 9lb
Gone Too Far (D.Pipe) Age 9 10st 7lb
Father Edward (D.Pipe) Age 8 10st 6lb

Three of the last 5 winning trainers have come from the south of England, 1 from Wales, 1 from Scotland but more importantly only Ferdy Murphy (2000,2005,2007), Howard Johnson (2004), Andrew Crook (2003) have won from the north of England since 2000. Therefore I am happy to eliminate the Sue Smith horses from West Yorkshire leaving four.

Henri Parry Morgan (P.Bowen) Age 9 10st 13lb R.Dunne
Cogry (N.Twiston-Davies) Age 8 10st 9lb J.Bargary3
Gone Too Far (D.Pipe) Age 9 10st 7lb M.Heard5
Father Edward (D.Pipe) Age 8 10st 6lb D.Noonan

Joe Mercer was an apprentice jockey when winning with Joes Edge (2005), likewise PJ Mcdonald (2006) with Hot Weld and amateur Charlie Huxley with Iris De Balme (2008). Other than that they've all been professionals since 2000 although claimers have placed.

Therefore, I'm leaving the two claimers for the places and concentrating on the two horses left:

Henri Parry Morgan (P.Bowen) Age 9 10st 13lb R.Dunne
Father Edward (D.Pipe) Age 8 10st 6lb D.Noonan

Prediction

1st Henri Parry Morgan - jockey Robbie Dunne won this in 2015 and trainer Peter Bowen won with Alco in 2014. The horse hasn't done so well this year but is now 14lb below his 2nd to Native River (off levels) in the Aintree Mildmay Chase over 3m1f last season. 20/1 currently

2nd Father Edward 100/1 currently :shock:

3rd Cogry 33/1 currently

4th Gone Too Far 100/1 currently :shock:

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby nors » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:39 am

Very helpful shrews, Henry Parri Morgan is one of my cliff horses - as in following the horse over it. I backed it at

8.04.2017 Aintree 6/16
14.03.2017 Cheltenham 15/23
12.02.2017 Exeter 2/4
28.01.2017 Cheltenham 13/15

It is always well thought of and often well backed, i give a few tips to my dad at the weekend and if i mention that horse again he may throttle me, but i cant not back it, it would feel disloyal.

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Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:37 pm

It is always well thought of and often well backed, i give a few tips to my dad at the weekend and if i mention that horse again he may throttle me, but i cant not back it, it would feel disloyal.
I'm not sure what his fall was like but Peter Bowen stated that he would run him over hurdles next to get his confidence back, so he was obviously affected by it to a fair degree. He then followed the hurdles run by finishing 2nd to Tea For Two at Exeter which looked an ok effort. Trouble is he then went to Cheltenham and then onto the Mildmay course at Aintree. Those obviously aren't the easiest obstacles and I'm speculating that he may still have been a bit wary.

These fences are easier and hopefully his confidence will return. The distance and slower speed may also help to get him into a rhythm.

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