Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7558
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:03 pm

The Aintree Grand National has only just finished but we only have 2 weeks to study for the Scottish Grand National (22nd April).

I won't be writing a blog on the race this year, instead i will be putting all of the trends on this thread, and hoping other members (Especially the other 2 main trends bloggers Robmull (Advised One For Arthur) & The Market Man) add their trends and thoughts to this thread, giving us all the perfect tool needed to find the winner.

Personally i am looking back over the last 20 runnings of the race.

I have quickly looked at the Age, Weight & Official Rating, but will also be looking at Recent Runs (last 2), Last Time Out (Date), Distance and possibly 1 or 2 more.

Firstly, Age, all of the last 20 winners were aged between 7 & 11, 3 were 7, 7 were 8 (but none of last 8 winners), 4 were 9, 3 were 10 (but none of last 10) & 3 were 11 (all in the last 8 years), i will be looking closer at the amount of runners for each age group and adding results on here.

Weight, 17 of the last 20 winners carried 11-03 or less, the other 3 winners carried 11-10 (twice 1997 & 1999) & 11-12 (2004), again i will be looking at the weights closer.

Official Rating, all of the last 20 winners were rated 150 or less, however, the 1997 winner carried 11-10 and was rated 150, but last years winner carried 11-03 and was rated 146, the 2014 winner carried 10-00 and was rated 140 and the 2011 winner carried 10-04 yet was rated 146, so this trend looks quite strong.

Please feel free to add anything you think will help us in our joint quest of beating the bookie.

I will be back soon with more trends

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7558
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:19 pm

There are 76 early entries for the race.

I cannot split the Age trend at present, if i take off the 7yo's as they have only won 3, i have to take off the 10 & 11yo's too as they have also won 3.

So for now, until i look further, i will use the age trend as 7 - 11yo's

We can get rid of 6, as they are either 6 or 12.

I will leave the weight trend for now and move onto Official Rating, all of the last 20 winners were rated 150 or lower, 12 currently have no Official Rating as they are Irish trained, but of those that have, we can eliminate 9, which leaves us with 61.

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7558
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:24 pm

Next up is the Recent Runs trend, 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts, 30 horses have failed to do that, so we now have 31.

Next trend is Last Run, 16 of the last 20 winners had their last run in March or April, 6 of the remaining 31 had their last run prior to March, we now have 25.

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7558
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:38 pm

15 of the last 20 winners had previously ran over 3m 5f or further, 9 of the remaining 25 have not done that, so we are now left with just 16.

Next up is Season runs (Since October 1st), 18 of the last 20 winners had between 3 & 6 runs that season, 5 of the 16 had either run less than 3 times or more than 6, we are now left with just 11 horses.

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7558
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:44 pm

16 of the last 20 winners had won a race since October 1st, of the 11 remaining, 5 had not, so we are now left with 6 horses.

Those 6 are - Missed Approach, One For Arthur, Final Nudge, Dancing Shadow, Mysteree & Courtown Oscar.

The Weight trend needs looking at too a little nearer the race as many of those at the top of the handicap will not run.

Please feel free to add your comments.

joannemalone1
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3894
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:00 am
Location: Clare All Ireland Champions 2013

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby joannemalone1 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:29 pm

Lucinda Russell said on at the races that One For Arthur won't run in the Scottish national.
OLBG Moderator

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7558
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:40 pm

Lucinda Russell said on at the races that One For Arthur won't run in the Scottish national.
Cheers Joanne, i didn't think he would but for now i will leave him in

The Executioner
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11624
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:00 pm

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby The Executioner » Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:30 pm

I think the race will suit Arpege D'Alene down to the ground and I strongly fancy him EW @16/1 with bet365 & SkyBet , he looks sure to be aimed for it and novices have ran well in the race previously - I even remember Captain Dibble winning the contest in his first season over fences way back in 1992. Arpege D'Alene is a thorough stayer and should be galloping on when others have had enough. I don't think there is a chance in hell of 16's being available on the day if he gets there.
2017 , 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 1 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412109

2017, 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 2 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412111

2017, 20x2yos To Follow
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412443

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7558
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:23 pm

I think the race will suit Arpege D'Alene down to the ground and I strongly fancy him EW @16/1 with bet365> & SkyBet> , he looks sure to be aimed for it and novices have ran well in the race previously - I even remember Captain Dibble winning the contest in his first season over fences way back in 1992. Arpege D'Alene is a thorough stayer and should be galloping on when others have had enough. I don't think there is a chance in hell of 16's being available on the day if he gets there.
Good luck with that

17 of the last 20 winners have passed 8 of the 10 trends i have looked at, although i haven't went through all 10 for this race at present (Only looked at 6)

Your fancy has passed 7 of the 10 trends, he fails on recent runs, with 2 x 4th placed finishes and the amount of chases won, he has only won 1, based on his OR, he should pass the weight trend, so that will be 8 of the trends passed, giving him a chance according to the last 20 years

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby The Market Man » Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:25 am

Looking Well could be an interesting runner. Performs like 4 miles would be fine, twice a previous winner during April.

The Scottish National suffers from being scheduled so close to Aintree and i tend to think that antepost bets can wait until the week before ( unless the Aintree horses dominate the market and i spot something fresher and more likely to run )

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14671
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby nors » Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:22 am

So Ex if the 16/1 became 8/1 on the day of the race, would you Lay it off? or congratulate yourself on getting the bigger price and know you now had the value secured?

The Executioner
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11624
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:00 pm

Re: Scottish Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby The Executioner » Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:45 am

So Ex if the 16/1 became 8/1 on the day of the race, would you Lay it off? or congratulate yourself on getting the bigger price and know you now had the value secured?

I may look to cover by backing another one or two if sufficient value was available, however as it appears excellent value to me to make the frame that wouldn't concern me too much if I just had Arpege riding for me, there is always the option of an in running play depending on how the race panned out. Staying ahead of the game is all about securing odds in excess of how you see the horses's chance and any firm offering 16/1 in my opinion is taking a big risk , it's a competitive race but I think the Nicholls runner has plenty going for him. :hope: :hope:
2017 , 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 1 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412109

2017, 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 2 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412111

2017, 20x2yos To Follow
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412443

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users