Grand National 2017 Discussion

Clearo611
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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Clearo611 » Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:43 am

Does anyon else like the chances of Saint Are. 2nd on good ground a couple of years ago but on soft ground didn't go so well last year.
With good ground forecast, a great prep run at Doncaster staying on strong last time over 3m and wily trainer/jockey combo I think this should be shorter than it is.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Robmull » Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:05 pm

The final declarations have been published, so we now know the 40 guaranteed runners and 4 reserves.

I have posted an update to my trends based blog, for which I have 12 trends based qualifiers, plus Bless The Wings if he gets in, so I shall now start working on whittling down the qualifiers to identify my final selections for the race.

Randox Health Grand National Key Race Trends – 8 April 2017 – Updated after publication of the final declarations
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412333

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Gman84 » Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:17 pm

Does anyon else like the chances of Saint Are. 2nd on good ground a couple of years ago but on soft ground didn't go so well last year.
With good ground forecast, a great prep run at Doncaster staying on strong last time over 3m and wily trainer/jockey combo I think this should be shorter than it is.
I hate to write any horse off as this race can make you look stupid but I think his best chance was two years ago. He's getting a change of headgear wearing first time blinkers and his yard are in good form. Don't complain if it isn't as short as you want it, enjoy the bigger price.


I see bet365 are offering half your stake back on GN bets up to £125. I only discovered by accident when putting my mums two on for her (Blaklion and Definitely Red in case you care) and I was the refunded half my stake! The compromise is they aren't best price on many runners and can be as much as 15 points lower on some horses.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby bazakehurst » Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:20 pm

On Saturday 6th April 2013 Ryan Mania won the Grand National on 66/1 Auroras Encore.

On Sunday 7th April 2013 wrestler The Rock defended the WWE Championship belt against John Cena at Wrestlemania 29.

Ryan Mania won the Grand National on the same weekend as Wrestlemania. :yes:

For the 2016 Grand National I recalled the 2013 race fondly and decided not to look at form, names, silks or any of the usual data when choosing a horse - I chose off jockey name. Who had the best name? I scanned the runners lists up and down and decided to put my faith in a man I knew nothing about: Robbie Power.

I'm not a big horse racing fan so I didn't know if he was any good, but I trusted my method and backed Gilgamboa. At the start of the race it was 28/1, but I'm sure I got on it a little higher. My bet was placed and off they went.

David Mullins was the winning jockey (Rule The World, 33/1).
David Bass came second (The Last Samuri, 8/1) who will be paired up again on Saturday fyi.
Robert Dunne came third (Vics Canvas, 100/1) and boy do I wish he had a better name because what a nice EW bet that could have been.
Robbie Power came fourth (Gilgamboa, 28/1) and in this day and age, EW pays to 4th and beyond, so I won my bet.

Nice one Robbie Power.

I had a little flutter on Cheltenham last month and had almost forgot about Robbie Power completely, until he only went and won the bloody Gold Cup (and more!) on the final day. What a man.

So I was scouring the 2017 runners list to see who Robbie Power is riding on Saturday. I noticed he was far down the list, 50/1 but I didn't let that put me off because then I saw the horses name: Regal Encore.

Regal ENCORE. Ryan Mania won on 66/1 Auroras Encore in 2013, where the story began.

All the signs point to it. Of course I'd say go EW, but definitely get some money on the Robbie Power powered Regal Encore. He has to place, surely!

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:03 pm

Regal ENCORE. Ryan Mania won on 66/1 Auroras Encore in 2013, where the story began.

All the signs point to it. Of course I'd say go EW, but definitely get some money on the Robbie Power powered Regal Encore. He has to place, surely!

Regal Encore
Plus: Won a 14 runner 57k Class 1 Listed H/cap at Ascot in December
Neg: Pulled up in 6 of his last 8. Record in 3m 1f chases is 2-PU-PU. If ever there is a wild card it could be this one.


Not for me, but if he has a going day he could do well...but it won't be anything to do with Wrestlemania or Robbie Power having the best name, which is surely trumped by JJ Codd, Charlie Deutsch, Nico De Boinville and even Derek or Ger Fox. :D

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Zipster » Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:09 pm

Tenor Nivernais 40/1
Appeared at the Aintree Grand National festival over hurdles back in 2012 and has not been back to Aintree since but this duet are no strangers to grand national success, they teamed up in 2009 when successful with 100/1 shot Mon Mome, Liam has since been back to place 3rd on Monbeg Dude in 2015 whilst Venetia’s record in the race is not that impressive bar the winner, her five sent here since have all failed to finish but this runner she sends this year does look to be in with a chance, currently rated 160 over fences he gets in off just 152, a mark he has recently won off at Ascot in a listed race by 30 lengths under Liam. Ground not going to be a problem and has won over 3m in the past which is usually a must in the GN and he reminds me a lot of Ballabriggs, comes into the race having won & placed runner up in his last two starts, is a 10yo off similar weights, Venetia is overdue a performer and this could well be the one.

Gas Line Boy 80/1
This pick is a bit ‘Out of left field’ selection as it is not my usually type of runner in this race however he scores very well on the trends for me, he passes 18 of the 19 which I looked at, he gets in off 144 so actually 1lb higher than he should be, ran in this very race back in 2015 where he never made it past the first fence which usually sets alarm bells ringing but I like the fact they never sent him straight back here the year after, he moved to Ian Williams last year and has been solid since that move, it’s also worth pointing out the yard have had 6 winners form just 16 sent to Aintree over 3m or further since 2008, a very good 38% strike rate. Dual winner over 3m and won over 3m5f so stamina not an issue, he has also placed in 8 of his 16 starts in 12 or more runner fields so enjoys the large fields. I expect him to be up with the pace so hopefully can stay out of trouble.

Saphir Du Rheu 20/1
Looking at the short-term winners of this race, the last two both came into the race being aged either 1 or 2 years older than the younger runner, they were both priced between 20/1 & 40/1 and were wearing no sort of head gear, this also produced the fourth home last year and this all points towards Saphir Du Rheu in this race. He is a dual winner over 3m+, goes on any ground and off 156 should be dangerous, he went close off 153 recently and is currently rated 162 pounds in hand here. He has a decent record in big fields which is usually important here and his record when running off between 11-0 & 11-5 is 5 wins from 6 starts. Nicholls has struggled for success since Neptune Collonges in 2012 and has not produced a placing since but this looks to be one of his best chance since that winner.

Those are my three for this years race! After hitting three on the spin (Ballbriggs, Neptune Collonges & Auroras Encore) I have not hit three losing years on the spin! So hoping for a turnaround this year!
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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Robmull » Fri Apr 07, 2017 3:52 pm

Final update for my trends based blog posted - 3 new Each Way selections, plus an earlier ante post wager.

Good luck everyone.

Randox Health Grand National Key Race Trends – 8 April 2017 – Updated with final comments and selections
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412333

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Fri Apr 07, 2017 8:01 pm

Right Guys, i need some advice on Combination Forecasts & Tricasts for the National.

Originally, i had 4 qualifiers for the race from my blog and my initial intention was to cover those 4 for 12 forecasts & 24 tricasts.

However, after the 48hr stage, 1 of those horses doesn't qualify, so i am know left with 3 qualifiers, but i have already backed the now missing horse.

The Missus always picks the same 2 horses every year by number.

So my dilemma is this -

Do i cover the original 4 selections in forecasts & tricasts?

Do i leave the non qualifier out and cover the new 3 qualifiers?

Or do i pick my 2 main bets & the missus 2 bets and cover those 4?

I cannot afford to cover the 3 qualifiers and the missus 2 selections, as that's 20 forecasts & 60 tricasts

Or should i just not bother now?

Please tell me what you would do

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby millersteve » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:09 am

Micko70 there is a saying that you don't chase losses, equally you should not chase action either.
That means if one has dropped out stick with the remaining 3 and increase your stake slightly.
As for the prettier half in your household I am the last person to be giving advice :D

Good luck mate and hope to see you again soon

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby millersteve » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:11 am

A couple I'll be cheering on after watching the now rusty Iron against Bolton, will be heading straight to the club bar for the race.

Ucello Conti comes here from a stable having a superb season, has experience over these fences having finished 4th in the Becher Chase and was 6th in last season’s renewal. Could do with being ridden closer to the pace. Comes here on the same mark and should benefit for the experience. Finished 2nd in the Thyestes behind Champagne West and more recently 4th in the Leinster National.

Raz De Maree maybe 12 but he has arguably had his best season to date with his 2nd behind Native River in the Welsh National. Earlier he won the Cork National and more recently was given an outing over hurdles to freshen him up where he was a decent 2nd. Goes well on good ground and could outrun his odds.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby nors » Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:45 am

A special day and one i hope we can all remember for winners, if you think back to when you had the winner of the Grand National or a big priced Each Way horse, and the storys you still tell about it. Suny Bay carrying 12 stone when just beaten by the weight given to Earth Summit is one of my memorys, having backed this class horse.

Micko: Dont have any regrets and make sure you cover as much as possible otherwise you will be kicking yourself.

Bet Victor are 6 places so we should get at least a placed horse with them

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby horage » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:24 pm

THE GRAND NATIONAL


The race looks wide open this year but the two form lines i like are the GOLD CUP and BLAKLION race wihich brings a

couple of others into the equation;Its possible that one or two of the Irish horses have got in with low weights;

So after some consideration the final selections are these .

1....SAPHIR DU RHEU

2......MORE OF THAT

3....... BLAKLION

4........VIEUX LION ROUGE


there are two outsiders i like and i backed them FOR SMALL STAKES Each Way at monster privces

THE Each Way LONGSHOTS

GAS LINE BOY........66/1 E.W AND SHANTOU FLYER 80/1.....E.W.



Good luck and may the horse be with you :lol:

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