Grand National 2017 Discussion

marksutherland
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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby marksutherland » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:07 pm

I'm in agreement with Grittar here, although I tipped The Last Samuri on the spring double thread last week, I actually really fancy RAZ DE MAREE, at around 40/1 I think this horse is a steal. It seems to love the better ground, what a race it ran in the Welsh Nationa finishing second to Native River, Houblon Des Obeaux was back in third 15 lengths behind my selection. The Welsh National was back on the 27th December, the horse was raised 7lb for that performance and has since had a spin over hurdles 30days back to protect its handicap mark, the spin over hurdles was over an inadequate trip too, which is usually the ideal prep for the Grand National. The only thing I am worried about is the horse is now 12, however he seems to be better than ever so this isn't too much of a worry for my self. I feel the 2nd to Native River is a standout piece of form on this race and Raz De Maree has a nice racing weight of just 10st 9lb.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Bobsselections » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:51 pm

With bookies offering extra places Vicente may be worth backing Each Way as he has run once in the month of April in each of the last two years winning both times with last years win being the Scottish National.

Owner Trevor Hemmings has a great record in the Grand National with Hedgehunter, Ballabrigs and Many Clouds all winning it within the last twelve years for a LSP of + 37.00.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:57 pm

Why it wins, why it doesn't - first 10

The Last Samuri:
Plus: 2nd last year, we know it jumps, we know it lasts home, the third was 8l away
Neg: 12lb higher mark, 16lb higher physical weight, 6l behind winner last year. There's probably a few who will finish in front but he's safe for a top 10.

More Of That
Plus: Classy type, won the 3m World (Stayers) Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2014, placed in the 2016 Cheltenham RSA Chase, 6th in the Gold Cup this year
Neg: All wins in races with 12 or less runners, unknown beyond 3m 2f, Cheltenham Gold Cup was probably his target.

Shantou Flyer
Plus: Grade 2 jumps winner over 3m, Grade 1 placed
Neg: Only race beyond 3m he fell at the 18th (midfield) in the Cheltenham 4m NH Chase 2016, mostly raced at under 3m

Perfect Candidate
Plus: Nose 2nd Grade 3 3m2f at Cheltenham in December (stayed on), won class 2 h/cap over 3m 2f at Cheltenham in Jan 16 on heavy. No falls in 17 chases
Neg: Highest career mark, only 12th of 17 in 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham 2015.

Saphir Du Rheu
Plus: Classy type, 2nd in the 3m World Hurdle at Cheltenham 2015, won the 2015 Grade 1 Aintree Mildmay Novices Chase, 5th in the Gold Cup this year
Neg: No better than 5th in 3 tries beyond 3m 2f, Cheltenham Gold Cup was probably his target

Roi Des Francs
Plus: Same mark as win over 3m 2f last time out, won at Graded level over chases and hurdles, no falls in 11 runs
Neg: Moderate 26l 5th over 3m 4f on only try beyond 3m 2f

Wounded Warrior
Plus: 3rd in Grade 1 RSA Novices Chase at Cheltenham in 2015, Grade 2 wins, no falls in 13 chases,
Neg: Generally poor since Jan 2016, unraced beyond 3m 1f

Wonderful Charm
Plus: No falls in 19 chases, 2nd in the Cheltenham Foxhunters this year over 3m 2f, Grade 3 2nd at Cheltenham over 3m 2f in December 15
Neg: Pulled up in this last year (although 5lb lower this time), also pulled up in only other try beyond 3m 2f (2015 Sandown Betfred Gold Cup Whitbread)

Tenor Nivernais
Plus: Won (Ascot) and placed over 3m (Cheltenham January 2017) Listed and Grade 3 placed over 21f (again Cheltenham January 17)
Neg: Only 9th of 24 only try beyond 3m (2015 Cheltenham Ultima Solutions)

Blaklion
Plus: Won the Grade 1 2016 RSA Novices Chase over 3m, multiple places at Graded level since, including the 3m 4f Grand National Trial at Haydock in Feb
Neg: I can't see any negatives in his form or mark

Three to take away

1. Blaklion

No others. I can't see any of these finishing in front of Blaklion

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:57 pm

Why it wins, why it doesn't - second 10

Drop Out Joe
Plus: Won the 3m2f 19 runner Listed Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June, 9th in the 4m Scottish National as a 7yo is probably a positive, 0 falls in 12 chases.
Neg: Possibly the target is the Summer Cup again (but could be this?), seasonal debut probably a negative, only 15th in last years Sandown Whitbread 3m5f

Le Mercurey
Plus: Twice a winner in Grade 2 Novice Chases at Ayr and Ascot in 2015/16. 2nd of 5 in a Listed at Aintree in December
Neg: Mainly contested small field races (although did win a 14 runner hurdle on his career debut). Mainly raced at up to 3m

The Young Master
Plus: Won the Grade 3 20 runner 3m 5f Bet36f Gold Cup (Whitbread) last year, 3rd in the 3m1f Ultima Solutions at Cheltenham in 2016, 6th this year
Neg: Fell when behind in the 3m 2f Becher Chase here in December (although it was his seasonal debut)

Cause Of Causes
Plus: Won the 3m 6f Cross Country at Cheltenham this year, won the 22 runner Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2016 over 3m 2f
Neg: Cheltenham is undoubtedly his target each year. Pulled up in the 4m Scottish National last year, Only a 27l 8th in this race in 2015 (4lb lighter).Top 10?

Regal Encore
Plus: Won a 14 runner 57k Class 1 Listed H/cap at Ascot in December
Neg: Pulled up in 6 of his last 8. Record in 3m 1f chases is 2-PU-PU. If ever there is a wild card it could be this one.

Vieux Lion Rouge
Plus: Won the Grade 3 3m2f Becher Chase here in November, won the Grade 3 3m 4f National Trial at Haydock in January, probably improving, good mark
Neg: 48l 7th in this last year, 20l 6th in the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2016

Definitely Red
Plus: Won a Grade 3 3m Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day, not out of the first three in chases when completing (9 chases)
Neg: A UR and Fall in his 9 race Chase career is a slight negative with the fall occurring when behind in the 2016 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2016

Ucello Conti
Plus: Only 2.5l behind Vieux Lion Rouge in the 2016 Becher Chase
Neg: Only a 37l 6th in this last year, probably hasn't improved enough to seriously feature in the the closing stages, but top 5-10 a possibility

Double Shuffle
Plus: Won a 25k Class 2 h/cap at Kempton in December, followed that up with a 1/2 length 2nd of 13 in a Grade 3 again at Kempton in February. Improving?
Neg: Unraced beyond 3m,

Houblon Des Obeaux
Plus: Stayed on 9l 4th over 4m 1f in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter last month, F-4-3-4-4 record over 3m 5f+ May well be staying on in the closing stages
Neg: May need further than 4m 2f! This is much tougher than the Midlands National and likely to have too much to do. Top 10

Three going forward:
1. The Young Master
2. Vieux Lion Rouge
3. Ucello Conti
Last edited by Shrews on Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:58 pm

Why it wins, why it doesn't - third 10

Pleasant Company
Plus: Won the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse over 3m 1f in February on heavy
Neg: Pulled up in the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2016, Chances only if it's heavy on the day.

One For Arthur
Plus: Won the 20 runner Grade 3 Betfred Classic at Warwick over 3m 5f in January, 6l 5th in the 3m 2f Becher Chase in December. Probably improving
Neg: Although improving his mark looks tough (11lb higher than the two runs above)

Ballynagour
Plus: Won the 23 runner Grade 3 Festival Plate at Cheltenham in 2014, 2nd in the Listed Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June over 3m 2f
Neg: Pulled up in 3 attempts in Grade 3 class since, Unseated in this race at the 14th last year. Questions over his liking for these fence?

O'Faolains Boy
Plus: Won the Grade 1 RSA Novices at Cheltenham in 2014,
Neg: Not in the first seven since January 2016 (5 runs) and pulled up in three of those. Not raced beyond 3m 2f

Highland Lodge
Plus: Short head 2nd in the 2016 Becher Chase here over 3m 2f in December and won it in 2015
Neg: Pulled up in the Scottish National over 4m in April last year and also pulled up in 3m 5f Welsh National at Chepstow in 2013 (heavy)

Bishops Road
Plus: Third in the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in January and won the Grade 3 Grand National Trial at Haydock over 3m 4f in Feb 16 (heavy)
Neg: 46l 10th of 20 in the Grade 3 Welsh National over 3m 5f in December. Unseated and Fell in two of his last 5.

Lord Windermere
Plus: Won the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup over 3m 2f
Neg: Pulled up in this in 2016, pulled up in the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Obviously declining and will need to resurrect some of that old form.

Saint Are
Plus: 2nd in this in 2015, 3lb below that mark now.
Neg: Pulled up in this in 2016 and there will probably be a few too good

Vicente
Plus: Won the 28 runner Grade 3 4m Scottish National last year (good/soft) just a pound higher now
Neg: 27l 8th in the Welsh National in December and didn't improve on that when only a 47l 9th at Haydock in the Grand National Trial in February

Just A Par
Plus: Short head 2nd in the Grade 3 bet365 Gold Cup (Whitbread) at Sandown last April off a pound higher and won it in 2015
Neg: Tailed off 15th in this last year and pulled up in the Edinburgh National on his only other try over 4m in February.

Three to take forward:
I don't fancy any of these apart from only One For Arthur who is worthy of more consideration
Last edited by Shrews on Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:58 pm

Why it wins, why it doesn't - fourth 10

Measureofmydreams:
Plus: Won a six runner Grade 2 at Navan over 3m in February 16, 7l 3rd of 20 in the 4m NH Challenge Cup for amateur riders at Cheltenham in 2016
Neg: No better than 12th in three runs since falling at the third in last years Scottish National. Needs to resurrect some form.

Raz De Maree:
Plus: 2l 2nd in the Welsh National in December (soft) and won the 3m 4f Cork Grand National on good in November, 2nd in the 2015 Midlands National (soft)
Neg: Pulled up in the 4m Scottish National in 2015, 38l 8th in this in 2014. Form looks as good as ever aged 12 but still might not be good enough

Stella Notion:
Plus: 7l 4th of 28 in the 78k Leopardstown Paddy Power Chase over 3m in December
Neg: All but 2 of his 15 runs have been under 3m and none beyond 3m1f. 7lb higher without winning for his last 4 places

Pendra
Plus: 2nd of 24 in the 3m 2f Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir at Cheltenham in March (good) and won the 3m Grade 2 Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in October 15 (good)
Neg: Only a distant 13th in last years race

Rogue Nation
Plus: Won the 3m 5f Irish National at Fairyhouse last year
Neg: Has only finished in the top 5 from 6 runs since that win and is 8lb higher for this

Cocktails At Dawn
Plus: Wins in 2015 over 2m4f
Neg: Unplaced in 3 runs beyond 3m since 2015. Fell in the Topham over these fences last April

Thunder And Roses
Plus: Won the 3m5f Irish National in 2015 and 2nd again at Fairyhouse over 3m5f in December 2016 off 5lb higher. May not have stopped winning yet,
Neg: Maybe best at Fairyhouse and has not won in 14 races since that Irish National win and is still 8lb higher than that win

Gas Line Boy
Plus: 12l 4th of 19 in the Listed Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June, won a class 2 veterans handicap at Kelso over 2m6f in December.
Neg: Fell at the first in this in 2015, 25l 4th in the Grade 3 Grand National trial at Haydock in February over 3m4f

Goodtoknow
Plus: 6l 2nd of 20 in the Grade 3 Betfred Classic over 3m5f at Warwick in January
Neg: Pulled up in the Scottish National last year and again in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February

La Vaticane
Plus: Won a 7k 8 runner class 3 h/cap at Doncaster in December
Neg: Pulled up in the Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir at Cheltenham in only attempt so far at 3m 2f+

Three going forward:
I would consider just Thunder And Roses from the above
Last edited by Shrews on Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:58 pm

Why it wins, why it doesn't - fifth 10

Doctor Harper
Plus: 2nd of 16 over 3m2f at Cheltenham in January in a class 2 h/cap
Neg: Doesn't appear classy enough to win this. Unseated in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2016, blundered fences, not in contention

Bless The Wings
Plus: Three times 2nd in the 3m6f Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival and short head 2nd in the 3m5f Irish National 2016 off 7lb lower
Neg: Superb 12yo and interesting in this, however only a 37l 7th in a 4m1f Punchestown Cross Country in April 16 although that was on gd/fm

Knock House
Plus: 4th of 22 in the 3m2f Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2016, won a class 3 h/cap at Cheltenham in November 15
Neg: Doesn't appear classy enough to win this, but stayed on in that Fulke Walwyn run and could be the type for this

Sambremont
Plus: 5l 2nd in the 3m4f Punchestown Grand National trial in February, Grade 2 three runner Novice Chase winner at Navan in Feb 16
Neg: Pulled up in two of his last three. although sandwiched in the middle was the Punchestown run above

Viva Steve
Plus: Won a class 3 handicap chase over 3m at Ayr in November
Neg: Poor last twice and no better than a 68l 8th in two runs beyond 3m

Potters Cross
Plus: Won a 12 runner class 3 at Newbury on New Years Eve over 3m2f
Neg: Pulled up last twice including in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir this year

Benbens
Plus: Just a length 3rd in the Scottish Grand National 2015
Neg: Poor in 3 runs since 2015 including when pulled up latest in the Midlands National. Probably on the decline and not quite good enough nowadays

Polidam
Plus: Consistent enough in chases of value up to 40k in France with wins and places
Neg: Unraced beyond 3m and only wins at 2m3f or less

Milansbar
Plus: 2l 2nd in the 2016 Midlands Grand National
Neg: Pulled up last three times including in the 4m Eider Chase at Newcastle

Lamb Or Cod
Plus: Won the Welsh National trial over 3m at Chepstow in December and won a Cheltenham class 2 over 3m 3f last April
Neg: No closer than a 20l 12th last twice, pulled up in three of his last 8

Three to take forward

1. Bless The Wings
2. Sambremont
3. Knock House
Last edited by Shrews on Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:59 pm

Why it wins, why it doesn't - shortlist and choices

1. Blaklion
2. The Young Master
3. Vieux Lion Rouge
4. Ucello Conti
5. One For Arthur
6. Thunder And Roses

These below need others to drop out:

7. Bless The Wings (needs two to drop out)
8. Knock House (needs three to drop out)
9. Sambremont (needs four to drop out)


3-4532 Blaklion 49 BF 8 11-1 Nigel Twiston-Davies Noel Fehily
Top jockey rides, trainer won this with Bindaree and Earth Summit, although last of those was 19 years ago

31-F06 The Young Master 25 8 10-13 Neil Mulholland Mr S Waley-Cohen
Top amateur ride with 3 places from 7 rides in this race, for a capable stable

267-11 Vieux Lion Rouge 49 8 10-12 David Pipe Tom Scudamore
Top jockey rides however he actually has a poor record in this with zero wins or places and hasn't finished better than 8 with a record of UR,9,12,11,F,-,F,16,F,8, the stable won this with Comply Or Die

-74724 Ucello Conti 27 9 10-12 Gordon Elliott Daryl Jacob
Very capable Irish stable won this with Silver Birch, Irish stable won last year, jockey won this with Neptunes Collonges

43-151 One For Arthur 84 8 10-11 Lucinda Russell Derek Fox
Capable stable, young pro rides

207226 Thunder And Roses 27 9 10-7 M F Morris
Trainer won last year, jockey booking unknown

682082 Bless The Wings 24 12 10-5 Gordon Elliott Denis O'Regan
Very capable Irish stable won this with Silver Birch, Irish stable won last year, capable jockey rides

F4P-P6 Knock House 49 8 10-4 Donald McCain
Stable won this in 2011 with Ballabriggs, jockey booking unknown

-9BP2P Sambremont 27 7 10-2 W P Mullins
Exceptional Irish trainer who won this with Hedghunter in 2005, jockey booking unknown

From the list above and also considering the profiles above I am happy to eliminate the following:

Vieux Lion Rouge - as good as he is I don't think Tom Scudamore adds anything to this horses chances in this particular race. I also don't like the 4m+ record of this horse, including last years race. He is improving and on a good mark, but for me he will do well to feature

One For Arthur - Derek Fox (he of the drink-driving ban - could it be this years story?). He may well be young and ambitious like David Mullins last year, but playing the percentages I'd prefer a jockey who is more proven and likewise the trainer, as good as she is. The horse looks to have a tough mark too.

Bless The Wings - May well be the stable 2nd string and as a 12yo will find this tough. There are questions on why he hasn't gone for this at a younger age if the stable truly felt he had the stamina and class to win. Possibilities, but on balance not quite good enough to win.

Sambremont - As good as Mullins is, he's only won with Hedgehunter who was excellent. This horse is also a 7yo and no horse younger than this has won since 1940 and there must be reasons for this which are probably stamina not fully yet developed and lack of chasing experience.

Leaves 5

3-4532 Blaklion 49 BF 8 11-1 Nigel Twiston-Davies Noel Fehily

This horse looks to have serious intentions for me, with stable proven round here and swerving Cheltenham. His RSA win shows his class and I think he's going to be tough to beat

31-F06 The Young Master 25 8 10-13 Neil Mulholland Mr S Waley-Cohen
Some questions over that fall in the Becher chase (will the fences suit?), decent jockey may steer him through to another place but I can't see him beating Blaklion off just 2lb less

-74724 Ucello Conti 27 9 10-12 Gordon Elliott Daryl Jacob
Jumps the fences but his 37l 6th last year leaves a nagging doubt. I do think he'll still be there at the finish and probably much closer than last year

207226 Thunder And Roses 27 9 10-7 M F Morris
Seems to have been round for ages as he was thrown into the spotlight by winning the Irish National aged 7, may love this if taking to the fences and looks the right age to contest this for a trainer who may have unlocked the secret to a winning formula. I'd prefer to know the jockey booking and see that as a negative at present.

F4P-P6 Knock House 49 8 10-4 Donald McCain
Has moved from the Mick Channon stable to Donald McCain and for me that's a serious plus for a horse who's shown decent stamina in his runs and may be crying out for a win. If he gets in, he's got a great chance at a big price.

Prediction
1. Blaklion (by 10l+)
2. The Young Master (just holds the running on third by a head)
3. Knock House
4. Thunder And Roses (5l back to 4th)
5. Ucello Conti (plodding on 5th, a further 5l+ back)

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Shrews » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:54 pm

Prediction and analysis now completed.

Good luck all!

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby jaydubs » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:54 pm

I would be very interested if Bless the wings got in ... if pipe pulled one of his to get Dr harper in would Elliott pull one of his?

My main fancy at this time is Saphir Du Rheu who has never quite been that real grade 1 class but puts up some good runs... it will enjoy the firmer ground and does stay. ...it may have 11'5 but the field is so compressed now it only give away less than a stone

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby UnderdogsLover » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:28 pm

:win: Nice write up shrews..
Have another longer reader tomorrow.

Ones not done yet....
And not sure of at moment...
Well quite like Thunder And Roses so should stay trip.
An outsider will be Gas Line Boy around 66/1 mark
If he gets pass the first get round on Second circuit might have a chance!!
Maybe Wonderful Charm!! Best of 33/1, I like.
as well as like number to...

Well done Blaklion in its 20s be for Cheltenham had a feeling
he would serve away from the GC, give him more time.
Also done Ucello Conti again in 20s need a horse who likes
Aintree and he improving.

At last it's nearly here certainly one of my favorite meetings of year. :)
And hope all the horses return sound and safe..

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Re: Grand National 2017 Discussion

Postby Midlander » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:59 am

I would be very interested if Bless the wings got in ... if pipe pulled one of his to get Dr harper in would Elliott pull one of his?

My main fancy at this time is Saphir Du Rheu who has never quite been that real grade 1 class but puts up some good runs... it will enjoy the firmer ground and does stay. ...it may have 11'5 but the field is so compressed now it only give away less than a stone
Denis O'Regan booked to ride Bless The Wings, which may or may not be a clue as to whether he will run. If he does make the final 40 it seems like a great combo. I can really see BTW running into a place, and DO'R seems the perfect jockey for coaxing him around the course and producing him when it matters.

365 offering 50s and returning half your stake once again. Suspect the price will quickly fall if he makes the cut, so I've just jumped in with an EW NRNB punt!

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