Grand National 2017 Discussion

[The Market Man]

I had VLR in the Becher and he's a better horse this season ( settling more during his races ) - i have doubts about his stamina and would fancy Blaklion to reverse the form on better terms on Spring ground and with a better jockey than Willie Twiston-Davies in the saddle. Also, as i posted in my blog, Scudamore has a terrible Grand National record but did win the Becher, so maybe he's due...

[Leicester Bigot]

I had VLR in the Becher and he's a better horse this season ( settling more during his races ) - i have doubts about his stamina and would fancy Blaklion to reverse the form on better terms on Spring ground and with a better jockey than Willie Twiston-Davies in the saddle. Also, as i posted in my blog, Scudamore has a terrible Grand National record but did win the Becher, so maybe he's due...

Strangely enough, I feel the opposite regarding stamina. I didn't back Blaklion because of the trip on Saturday and I felt he was clearly outstayed by the winner at Haydock. When Blaklion was lying second and Vieux Lion Rouge third, the Twiston-Davies horse looked to be going better and when they ended up dropping the horse who would finish third, they jumped the last two fences more or less neck and neck. It was the closing stages where Vieux Lion Rouge asserted and Blaklion looked tired in that last 100 yards, more or less conceding 3 lengths on the run in.

Vieux Lion Rouge stayed well enough to finish 7th in The Grand National last year and now that he is settling and jumping better, that can only help his cause. Blaklion isn't the biggest of horses and Vieux Lion Rouge is the horse with National fence experience.

I'll take that stamina match bet in a heartbeat.

[Micko70]

After only looking at the Age, Weight & Official Rating trends, loads have been eliminated and only 29 remain with still Recent Runs, Last Run, Year Runs, Handicap Chase Wins, Distance & Class to look at, many more will be eliminated.

The 29 remaining are -

Carlingford Lough, The Last Samuri, Alelchi Inois, Devils Bride, Perfect Candidate, Carole´s Destrier, Foxrock, Wonderful Charm, Drop Out Joe, Tenor Nivernais, Regal Encore, Houblon Des Obeaux, Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti, Highland Lodge, Bishops Road, Lord Windermere, Saint Are, Just A Par, Stellar Notion, Cocktails At Dawn, Gas Line Boy, Goodtoknow, Thunder And Roses, Doctor Harper, Tour Des Champs, Hadrian´s Approach, Potters Cross & Viva Steve

But if we also look at last years bottom weight being rated 145, we can probably eliminate Gas Line Boy, Goodtoknow, Thunder And Roses, Doctor Harper, Tour Des Champs, Hadrian´s Approach, Potters Cross & Viva Steve, if we do, then we are now down to 21 runners.

[Grittar]

I just backed Vieux Lion Rouge, One For Arthur & The Last Samuri based on three simple stats.

1 They all be placed at 3 miles 3 furlongs or futher. The National is the longest race in the UK, and this eliminated most runs last year but kept the winner. It also found 75% of the last 20 winners, so is a very useful guide.

2 The National has the largest field in the UK, and I found a top 2 placings in a chase field of 16 or more runners a common feature amongst winners. Only 4 runners in past couple of decades didn't have this. However 2 of those did have a top 4 place. While one (Lord Gyllene ) was untried.

3 Signs of improvement, or at least a sign of been able to handle it's weight. The first half is a career best RPR over chases in current season ( I use Racing Post Ratings because they consistent and I've access to a horse's full career, but any rating system will do if they meet both criteria ), the second part is the Official Ratings. If it's won with a higher or at least the same Official Ratings it has been set in the National then I know it has a chance of winning.

[titans choice]

Good news for the grand national on the Sky Bet web page I have noticed it says they are paying 5 places now.

[UnderdogsLover]

Yes be shame Gas Line Boy want make it, follow all season for long races.
Look like possible now could go for Scottish one?

Only done Blaklion so far... His 2nd in national trail will brought him
on for that, also possible could run in Gold Cup!! but like see go straight to the National.
and go somewhere like the Whitbread, or what ever it called now?

As for the places waiting for least 6 places..

[Leicester Bigot]

I just backed Vieux Lion Rouge, One For Arthur & The Last Samuri based on three simple stats.

Very wise move. Those are my three picks

Vieux Lion Rouge was well backed yesterday. There was some 16/1 around but the best price is now 12/1. The Racing Post raised Vieux Lion Rouge by 7 lbs for Saturday's win and he is inevitably going to be one of those horses considered to be "Well in" when the newspapers start considering their previews come the days leading up to the race.

Perhaps ominously, Vieux Lion Rouge has run up a hat trick three times already in his career and he has now set down another two wins as we approach the big one. He has won 11 of his 21 races and 5 of his 9 Chases, so he has an unusually high strike rate for a Grand National runner. Ucello Conti has won 0 of his 9 chases, yet the two were the same odds in some places yesterday.

Don Poli is not quoted by many bookmakers this morning. With the Gigginstown fiasco and other considerations, I feel that The Last Samuri may end up as the Top-Weight when they line up.

Blaklion also has a terrific strike rate but the trip is the question for me. He travelled well in The Hennessy before finishing fifth and again on Saturday, he was going better than the winner earlier in closing stages, when it looked at one stage that Vieux Lion Rouge would be left behind by the two in front, before he started staying on steadily, ultimately wearing Blaklion down on the run in. I notice that someone else feels Blaklion will come on for the trial but, for me, Vieux Lion Rouge probably has greater scope to come on from his first race since the Becher Chase and hold a serious chance in the National itself.

[titans choice]

The 29 remaining are -

Carlingford Lough, The Last Samuri, Alelchi Inois, Devils Bride, Perfect Candidate, Carole´s Destrier, Foxrock, Wonderful Charm, Drop Out Joe, Tenor Nivernais, Regal Encore, Houblon Des Obeaux, Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti, Highland Lodge, Bishops Road, Lord Windermere, Saint Are, Just A Par, Stellar Notion, Cocktails At Dawn, Gas Line Boy, Goodtoknow, Thunder And Roses, Doctor Harper, Tour Des Champs, Hadrian´s Approach, Potters Cross & Viva Steve

But if we also look at last years bottom weight being rated 145, we can probably eliminate Gas Line Boy, Goodtoknow, Thunder And Roses, Doctor Harper, Tour Des Champs, Hadrian´s Approach, Potters Cross & Viva Steve, if we do, then we are now down to 21 runners.
[/quote]

Interesting that Vieux Lion Rouge or One For Arthur is not in the 29 do you think there is a chance these 2 will not run or that they do not have the chance of winning that their odds say they have?

[Brownie3]

Galant Oscar a non runner in National

[titans choice]

Paddy Power has Minella Rocco as favourite for the Grand National after it's Gold Cup 2nd it is as low as 8/1 but it did finish the race today strongly.

[UnderdogsLover]

Wow as much as that.
titans choice

Minella Rocco as favourite for the Grand National after it's Gold Cup 2nd it is as low as 8/1

Yes run a great race, only problem be the age 7??
That what will put me off, to and favourite to.

Only done Blaklion 20 s..
None of makes appeal this year, mayb will when race get closer!!

[Robmull]

From a trends perspective, Minella Rocco is an unlikely winner of the Grand National and in my view is far too short in the betting.

Having updated my trends based blog with revised scores for the top 17 entries in the current betting market (all those that are currently quoted with best odds of 33/1, or shorter on Oddschecker), I have identified 3 entries that have met all 10 of the key race trends, plus a further 4 score based qualifiers, but have suggested just 1 small Each Way wager, at this stage.

Random Health Grand National Key Race Trends – 8 April 2017 – Update on 20 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412333