Grand National 2017 Discussion

[UnderdogsLover]

Agree with Robmull.

Minella Rocco is an unlikely winner of the Grand National and in my view is far too short in the betting.

Also he seven year old, another stat against him, bout 1920 s!! something last Won come in.
But run well in Gold Cup again have go close again next year,as an eight-year-old.

Well like be proved wrong and, Minella Rocco go for this year National.
But feel National may come bit too soon for him..

Bit like my National fancy i done in Blaklion side step the GC to focus on National build up.
Anyway they bound be couple more horses will come under the radar soon.
Which will keep us focus..

At last National getting nearer so to is Spring to.

[Grittar]

I just backed Vieux Lion Rouge, One For Arthur & The Last Samuri based on three simple stats.

1 They all be placed at 3 miles 3 furlongs or futher. The National is the longest race in the UK, and this eliminated most runs last year but kept the winner. It also found 75% of the last 20 winners, so is a very useful guide.

2 The National has the largest field in the UK, and I found a top 2 placings in a chase field of 16 or more runners a common feature amongst winners. Only 4 runners in past couple of decades didn't have this. However 2 of those did have a top 4 place. While one (Lord Gyllene ) was untried.

3 Signs of improvement, or at least a sign of been able to handle it's weight. The first half is a career best RPR over chases in current season ( I use Racing Post Ratings because they consistent and I've access to a horse's full career, but any rating system will do if they meet both criteria ), the second part is the Official Ratings. If it's won with a higher or at least the same Official Ratings it has been set in the National then I know it has a chance of winning.

Now we've all the facts in think Raz De Maree is the forgotten horse. Currently outside the 40 runners but expect by next elimination stage for that to be fixed. His second to Native River in Welsh National could be best form of all. Houblon Des Obeaux ran well in Midlands National, and Native River ran a cracking race in the Gold Cup.

[UnderdogsLover]

Minella Rocco is out of the National
Will be better next year and fit the right age bracket.
Be certainly for Gold Cup one to watch next year.

[nors]

Bet Victor 6 places on the Grand National 1/4 of the odds!!

[Gman84]

I'm wondering how things will shape up for the field this week. With Vics Canvas out at present Rogue Angel is the last one in but Regal Encore and Foxrock look more likely for the Irish version from what i've heard. I thought Saphir Du Rheu might go for the Aintree Bowl but he's been pulled so looks like here?

Do the Gigginstown horses come or stay for the Irish version which has record prize money this year? Both Rogue Angel and Thunder And Roses have struggled since their IN wins as the handicapper has got to grips with them but in the case of the latter he seems to be coping much better with his mark this year and has put in some decent performances.

Is anyone waiting on a horse just outside the top 40 at present who they need some more to come out in order for their possible selection to get in?


Also, we are getting some news on jockey bookings. Brian Hughes has enjoyed an excellent season and he lands a ride on Vicente for Paul Nicholls, a horse that won last years Scottish National. Nicholls has also got Katie Walsh on Wonderful Charm and I like this as a booking, she knows here way around here, has had success in this race (placed) and won an Irish National (on Thunder And Roses) so she'll give her mount a patient ride.

[Shrews]

I need 10 to drop out for Knock House (66/1) to get a run.

- Has won over 3m+
- Has won on good, good to soft and soft ground
- 4th in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir in 2016 (staying on). It could be that the further he goes the better he gets.
- McCain has said on his stable tour that he's been bought with an Aintree target in mind (was with Mick Channon).
- Hurdles run last time (first time since 2014 and only 2nd run for new stable) hints at keeping his mark low and is currently just 1lb above his last win.
- Just one fall in twelve chases and sure to have been schooled well since the switch to a dedicated NH yard who trained former winner Ballabriggs.
- Not out of the first 5 in two runs with 20+ runners

ATR Comments:
141 rated chaser. Scored by a neck from Foxbridge in an amateur riders' handicap chase at Cheltenham (3m 1f) in November of last year when trained by Mick Channon.

"I bought him at Ascot when the Timico people were having a bit of a dispersal. He is only seven (has since turned 8)and stays and jumps well and I am hoping to make him into an Aintree horse."

-

[Gman84]

Spent a couple of hours going through the field and whilst I have already made up my mind about a couple I like and will be backing there is one that wasn't really on my radar that has come through to draw my interest and I'm likely going to be backing it now.

The horse is Measureofmydreams.

Firstly I was rewatching the Ultima from this years festival. The horse finished 13th of 23. Hardly awe-inspring. Having watched a couple of times the horse is kept out the back and runs a steady race, over the last mile he makes some progress. Now I'm not for one minute suggesting it would have won or even got in the places, it was too far back for that but he was badly hampered at the 2nd last when 9th and moving through the field. I appreciate being hampered happens but without it he likely keeps gaining ground and possibly finishes another couple of places better off. The fact he was making ground over the last mile is certainly encouraging.

We go further back and he was of course a disappointing favourite in the Scottish National, a mistake at the first and it was over by the 3rd so I'll put a line through that. He didn't run a terrible race in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and was following the move of eventual 2nd Just A Par when a mistake a couple from home cost him his momentum and he dropped back pretty quickly but before that he was travelling nicely.

The best piece of form and the one that really caught my eye is the 2015 NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where Measureofmydreams was 3rd. A race won by Minella Rocca (2nd in this years Gold Cup and one time favourite for this race until pulled out) with Native River in second (3rd in Gold Cup, Hennessey and Welsh National winner), Vicente in 5th (won Scottish National) and Vieux Lion Rogue in 6th (current favourite for this race, Becher Chase and Haydock Grand National Trial winner). Southfield Royale was 4th and has admittedly done nothing since that race.

Of course horses progress in different ways. One horses best ever race might only be a stepping stone to greater things for another horse but for me, there is enough in it's performances since to at least believe it is possible it can outrun a current price of 50/1 with which you can get with BetVictor who are paying 6 places or with SkyBet who pay 5 places and are NRNB.

[The Executioner]

9 Defectors at the five day stage

Carlingford Lough
Alelchi Inois
Ziga Boy
Maggio
Foxrock
Vics Canvas
Sizing Coal
The Romford Pele
Straidnahanna

[Robmull]

I have just posted an update to my trends based blog, having scored the top 51 entries in the handicap, which should cover the bulk, if not all of the maximum field of 40, plus reserves once the final declarations have been published.

I now have a 'shortlist' of 14 qualifiers, which I can focus on over the next few days.

I wonder how many of my fellow OLBG members' selections rank amongst the trends based shortlist?

Randox Health Grand National Key Race Trends – 8 April 2017 – Update after publication of the 5 day entries
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412333

[nors]

Garethp has written an interesting blog on breeding in relation to the Grand National, and there is 1 horse who the breeding history points to and that is Pendra, currently 50/1.

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412536

[thegambler3700]

Might be a silly question.

Im going be doing a write up for the National in the next few days do I put it in here or do i put it in the daily thread?

[nors]

thegambler2007, post on here the Grand National Discussion Thread, looking forward to it.