Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2556
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby The Market Man » Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:09 pm

I used slightly less than Rob, 10 trends in total, and a total of 165 points could have been scored.

Goonyella passed all 10 trends and top scored with 165 points, the 4 horses in front of him scored as followed -

1 - Rule The World - 117 points, failing on Breeding, Handicap Chase Wins & Distance.
2 - The Last Samurai - 115 points, failing on Age, Year Runs & Class.
3 - Vics Canvas - 82 points, failing on Age, Last Time Out, Last Run, Handicap Chase Wins & Class.
4 - Gilgamboa - 114 points, failing on Age, Handicap Chase Wins & Distance

So between the first 4 horses home, 3 of them failed on Age (although the winner didn't), 3 failed on Handicap Chase Wins (Whereas 16 of the last 20 winners passed that). 2 failed on Class & 2 failed on Distance.
How often in the last 20 years has the ground been that bad ? It changes the whole complexion of a race and gives horses like Vics Canvas a better chance of placing.

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2556
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby The Market Man » Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:39 pm

Just had a quick look through and as far as I can see, only comply or die has finished in the top 7 of the GN wearing blinkers or visor in the last 10 runnings.
.
COD was given a peach of a ride by Timmy Murphy. Kept away from trouble, raced prominently

There's a method for reducing the list of potential winners by looking for horses that won't win. Poor jumping, suspect stamina and jockey record are my three X's. A horse gets all three and you can sound that Family Fortunes buzzer.

Rule The World - jockey finished second in an Irish National on that horse
Last Samuri - jockey had good relationship with the horse and few are stronger in the saddle
Vics Canvas - jockey had won a Scottish National and other long distance races
Gilgamboa - jockey had won a National.

The Shark
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 5607
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2004 12:00 am
Location: OLBG

Postby The Shark » Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:08 pm

Yes, so in a similar way to Earth Summit, COD was kept away from a lot of the other horses, perhaps explaining why he "broke" the headgear trend.

Your Jockey angle there is interesting. Many people have written off jockeys as being a factor to even consider as several less experienced jockeys have won the race whilst experienced ones haven't. Your suggesting then that there needs to be some kind of positive there that the Jockey has formed a good partnership with the horse? OR has proven they know how to steer a horse to a staying race win?

There is an easy explanation for Rule the World breaking a couple of the trends - for sure he hadn't won a handicap chase, he hadn't won a staying chase, he hadn't won any sort of chase but he was 2nd in a pretty good one - Irish National. Should 2nd in a high class staying chase be ignored?

Zipster has some interesting stats there showing horses who have never placed in a handicap chase are 0-103

So in future should we really stick to a horse must have won to prove they can stay or have the ability or should we change that to must have placed or finished in top xx or finished within xx lengths of the winner or ??

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2556
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby The Market Man » Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:54 pm

Several less well known jockeys may have won the race but they'd already proven their ability on the big occasion

Ryan Mania won on Aurora's Encore a year after finishing second in a Scottish National and winning a 32k race at Haydock on the same horse
Liam Treadwell had placed on Mon Mome in the Festival Handicap Chase at Cheltenham ( the old William Hill ) and the horse had finished 10th at Aintree the year before it won.

Has the horse run well in a top staying chase ? I look for a horse making headway and staying on past the line. Something being prominent and fading but holding on for 4th isn't as interesting.
Is it bred for further ( lots of horses run well for 3 miles in a National but fade during that final quarter )
Do the trainer and jockey have the pedigree / experience for such a race ?

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2556
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby The Market Man » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:52 pm



So we would like to re-write this page http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/g ... trends.php for next year. But we want to focus a bit more on how to identify the type of horse we should be looking for to win the 2017 Grand National rather than rigid things like "must have won over 3 miles"

Is this an OLBG / Invendium page ? I've written a National blog to help select a few runners before the weights are published and i can link to this for trends.

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7430
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby Micko70 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:14 pm

Yes it is, The Grand National Guide is part of OLBG/Invendium, good thinking regarding linking it in, i will do that too

jaydubs
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5417
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby jaydubs » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:13 pm

Native River not in the list.... looks like Tizzard is wanting a Gold Cup...

Goonyella not in the list either

Robmull
Triple Crown Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 1688
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby Robmull » Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:33 am

Having spent time on and off over the last 10 months analysing possible criteria that should be used for my trends based blog for the 2017 renewal of the Grand National, I intend to an alternative approach, which is fully documented in the following blog:

Grand National Key Race Trends – An Alternative Approach
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412320

Sticky99
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 557
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2005 12:00 am

Re: Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby Sticky99 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:16 am

That's an interesting read Robmull and I think you are right to just look at the last four years after the modifications. The problem I have always had from stats is that saying X% of winners were Y so it is therefore a positive. For context I feel it should be also noted what proportion of the total runners passed the stat as well to identify if it is a positive.

For example: if 8/10 winners pass a stat but they make up 95% of the total runners from the past 10 years then surely they have underperformed as a population.

I would be much more interested in cases where they have had 6/10 winners but only had 30% of the total runners.

Robmull
Triple Crown Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 1688
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby Robmull » Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:42 am

I agree with you in theory Sticky99 and would even suggest that we should go a step further with trends analysis and only focus on those where the qualifiers have returned a profit at Industry SP.

Hence, we would end up with a criteria that appears as follows:

Won Last Time Out: 9/10 (90%) from 16 qualifiers out of a total number of runners of 50 (32%) for a level stake profit of 25.5 pts.

However, in practice the analysis would have to be undertaken on every runner in the race over the chosen time period.

It took me a significant amount of time to complete the analysis as detailed in my blog for the 2017 Grand National, but would have taken something in the region of 13 times longer had I attempted to develop perfect trends, as detailed above, with no guarantee that the results would be any more effective.

It will certainly be interesting to see how the revised trends work out compared with those based on longer sample periods.

All the best.

Rob.

PS - I have just posted an update to the blog (see link below), which includes my final comments and details of the 10 key race trends which I shall be using for the race, so it is now just a case of waiting for the weights to be published to enable me to start on the first iteration of my trends based article, which will be posted later this week.

Grand National Key Race Trends – An Alternative Approach
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412320

bobhorse
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 11:00 pm

Re:

Postby bobhorse » Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:45 pm

Great idea The Shark.

As you are probably aware, I am also a big user of trends and was contemplating undertaking a root and branch review of the criteria for the Grand National results over the past few years to see whether I could get a better handle on the race for 2017.

As you can see from my blog (link below), I ended up using 14 trends to reduce the 40 runners down to a short list of 5, from which I selected 3 runners to back, which seems excessive, albeit I award points for each trend and base my selections on a minimum threshold score rather than excluding runners that fail a specific trend.

Crabbie's Grand National Chase Key Race Trends – 9 April 2016 – Updated with Final Comments and Selections
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410747

The race has definitely changed over the past few years, but one of the key questions has to be when did the changes really kick in and therefore over what period should any new trends be based.

Looking at my analysis for 2016, the past 11 winners failed the following number of the 14 trends that I used:

16 Rule The World: 4 trends

Iv read your trends review and indeed how the horses rated i would be interested to know if you used all 15 trends instead of the 10 you settles on do the numbers allocated to the past winner become closer corolation or does it distort the figures even more and what i mean by this is 89 - 99 as a range total under the 10 trends system is around 10% and i would expect there to be quite a few runners in the race falling into this bracket if you use the 15 trends and a maximim off 99 does the spread shrink below the 10% if it does then maybe less qualifires fall into the band ?
15 Many Clouds: 5 trends
14 Pineau De Re: 2 trends
13 Auroras Encore: 3 trends
12 Neptune Collonges: 4 trends
11 Ballabrigs: 2 trends
10 Don't Push It: 1 trend
09 Mon Mone: 2 trends
08 Comply Or Die: 0 trends
07 Silver Birch: 0 trends
06 Numbersixvalverde: 0 trends

With the last 5 winners starting at odds of 25/1 or bigger, as opposed to 4 of the previous 6 winners being sent off at 16/1 or shorter, perhaps it makes sense to use the trends for just the last 5 years?

I don't intend to rush my analysis, as there is plenty of time to consider this puzzle, but will certainly be happy to share my thoughts and findings over the next few months.

All the best.

Rob.

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2556
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby The Market Man » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:52 pm

That's an interesting read Robmull and I think you are right to just look at the last four years after the modifications. The problem I have always had from stats is that saying X% of winners were Y so it is therefore a positive. For context I feel it should be also noted what proportion of the total runners passed the stat as well to identify if it is a positive.

For example: if 8/10 winners pass a stat but they make up 95% of the total runners from the past 10 years then surely they have underperformed as a population.

I would be much more interested in cases where they have had 6/10 winners but only had 30% of the total runners.
Some big races during a season are long term targets where the preparation has been 12-18 months in the making, others decided upon during the campaign and i think certain stats reflect that ( strong trends for number of season runs, time since last run etc )

The 3 mile chase trend for the National will change now it's a stipulation and there could be a stat(s) which reflects a protected mark because National winners are not progressive young horses but seasoned campaigners

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users