Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

The Shark
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Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

Postby The Shark » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:09 pm

I've always been a huge trends fan. I love systems and using trends to help me to understand the type of horse which runs well in certain races. Also to help understand how some races are changing over time.

A few years back we could use some nice trends like weight, age, won over a certain distance, didn't wear headgear? Not french bred? to really cut the Grand National field down but this seems to have got harder and harder with trend after trend being broken.

Many Clouds won carrying 11st 9
8 year olds have filled four of the last 10 places
Rule The World won as a chase maiden AND there was a 13 year old in third!!!

So we would like to re-write this page http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/g ... trends.php for next year. But we want to focus a bit more on how to identify the type of horse we should be looking for to win the 2017 Grand National rather than rigid things like "must have won over 3 miles"

ie. why rule out Rule The World as he hadn't won over 3miles when he had beaten 26 home in the Irish National to prove he could stay.

So what should we include?
What should we be looking for now in a 2017 Grand National winner?
Or should we just re-write the trends that have been broken?

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:51 pm

Age & Weight Trends are still proving strong to find the winner.

Before this years race, 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 9, 10 & 11 & 17 of the last 20 winners carried 11-01 or less.

So, as we have another race, we disregard the bottom race on the list (1996 Rough Quest).

Rough Quest was aged 10 & carried 10-07, so those trends now become 16 of 19, but looking at this years winner, he was aged 9 and carried 10-07 so again, both of those trends stand firm with 17 winners from 20 races (85%)

The Last Time out trend remains the same too, 17 of the last 20 winners had finished in the first 5 on their last completed start, Rough Quest was 2nd so again that stat becomes 16 from 19 but Rule The World was 4th on his last start.

So even after this years race, Age, Weight & LTO stand at 17/20

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Postby toadie21 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:52 pm

I am a user of trends when trying to find the winner of national. I did think about throwing them out of the window when Many Clouds won with such a high weight.
I use trends that I can see against the race card then look into each horse thats left a little deeper.
Trends I use are
under 11st3
Between 8-12yrs
Last run 20-50 days ago
Between 4-6 runs no more than 1win and no falls this season.
This left me with 10. my choice before hand was Hollywell which I kept then picked 2 bigger odds horsed Boston Bob grade1 winner and Rule the World because of his Irish national placing. Having check Irish national results of the past few years there is a few that have done well at the Grand National.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:55 pm

I will personally stop using the Official Rating trend as a higher class of horse are running in the race now.

Hedgehunter won in 2005 carrying 11-01 and he was rated 144, Gilgamboa carried 11-01 this year yet was rated 156.

If Hedgehunter had of been entered this year, he wouldn't have made it in as The Romford Pele was horse number rated 145

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:57 pm

I am a user of trends when trying to find the winner of national. I did think about throwing them out of the window when Many Clouds won with such a high weight.
I use trends that I can see against the race card then look into each horse thats left a little deeper.
Trends I use are
under 11st3
Between 8-12yrs
Last run 20-50 days ago
Between 4-6 runs no more than 1win and no falls this season.
This left me with 10. my choice before hand was Hollywell which I kept then picked 2 bigger odds horsed Boston Bob grade1 winner and Rule the World because of his Irish national placing. Having check Irish national results of the past few years there is a few that have done well at the Grand National.
Between 8 & 12 gives you All of the last 20 winners but only 2 x 8yo's have won and only 1 x 12yo has won, compare that with how many 12yo's have actually ran and your giving a horse a positive that on paper doesn't deserve it.

With my 9/10/11 it still gives you 17 winners from 20 yet ignored 9 other horses this year, by leaving out the former and the latter.

Also, you use under 11-03, yet none of the last 20 winners have won carrying 11-02, so again your adding horses in that don't qualify, i use 11-01 or less as 1 winner carried that, i could simplify it a little further and say 11-00 or less as it would only lose 1 winner and still read 16 from 20 which is still pretty impressive

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Postby Robmull » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:04 pm

Great idea The Shark.

As you are probably aware, I am also a big user of trends and was contemplating undertaking a root and branch review of the criteria for the Grand National results over the past few years to see whether I could get a better handle on the race for 2017.

As you can see from my blog (link below), I ended up using 14 trends to reduce the 40 runners down to a short list of 5, from which I selected 3 runners to back, which seems excessive, albeit I award points for each trend and base my selections on a minimum threshold score rather than excluding runners that fail a specific trend.

Crabbie's Grand National Chase Key Race Trends – 9 April 2016 – Updated with Final Comments and Selections
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410747

The race has definitely changed over the past few years, but one of the key questions has to be when did the changes really kick in and therefore over what period should any new trends be based.

Looking at my analysis for 2016, the past 11 winners failed the following number of the 14 trends that I used:

16 Rule The World: 4 trends
15 Many Clouds: 5 trends
14 Pineau De Re: 2 trends
13 Auroras Encore: 3 trends
12 Neptune Collonges: 4 trends
11 Ballabrigs: 2 trends
10 Don't Push It: 1 trend
09 Mon Mone: 2 trends
08 Comply Or Die: 0 trends
07 Silver Birch: 0 trends
06 Numbersixvalverde: 0 trends

With the last 5 winners starting at odds of 25/1 or bigger, as opposed to 4 of the previous 6 winners being sent off at 16/1 or shorter, perhaps it makes sense to use the trends for just the last 5 years?

I don't intend to rush my analysis, as there is plenty of time to consider this puzzle, but will certainly be happy to share my thoughts and findings over the next few months.

All the best.

Rob.
Last edited by Robmull on Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby toadie21 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:12 pm

Thanks. I\'ll make a note of those tweaks.
To be honest I just googled national trends a few years ago before my 1st Aintree visit and made a note in my racing journal. Managed to find Comply or Die that year and Snowy Morning who finished 3rd and have done well on the national since.
Its a great way to narrow the field and can bring some big price horses to your attention. And it great to have guys on here pointing out the trends on races every week.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:24 pm

I used slightly less than Rob, 10 trends in total, and a total of 165 points could have been scored.

Goonyella passed all 10 trends and top scored with 165 points, the 4 horses in front of him scored as followed -

1 - Rule The World - 117 points, failing on Breeding, Handicap Chase Wins & Distance.
2 - The Last Samurai - 115 points, failing on Age, Year Runs & Class.
3 - Vics Canvas - 82 points, failing on Age, Last Time Out, Last Run, Handicap Chase Wins & Class.
4 - Gilgamboa - 114 points, failing on Age, Handicap Chase Wins & Distance

So between the first 4 horses home, 3 of them failed on Age (although the winner didn't), 3 failed on Handicap Chase Wins (Whereas 16 of the last 20 winners passed that). 2 failed on Class & 2 failed on Distance.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:27 pm

Thanks. I\'ll make a note of those tweaks.
To be honest I just googled national trends a few years ago before my 1st Aintree visit and made a note in my racing journal. Managed to find Comply or Die that year and Snowy Morning who finished 3rd and have done well on the national since.
Its a great way to narrow the field and can bring some big price horses to your attention. And it great to have guys on here pointing out the trends on races every week.
It's good when it works for you, in 2014, my trends blog posted on here picked out 4 horses, all scoring the same points, Pineau De Rei was 1 of the 4, yet last year, the trends were shocking.

Every race is different, but i would still never attack a big race without looking at them first as they can not only help you pick the winner, they can more often than not, pick out horses that simply cannot win.
Last edited by Micko70 on Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby jaydubs » Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:08 pm

Interesting subject..

I have to say with the rain I ruled out everything above 11st this year full stop...

How do people think that 10 yr trends are a bit false now that we have redesigned the fences and it is attracting better horses... how many fallers were there this year compared to others..

Is 3 or 4 yr trends worth looking at now with the re design? What is there in the last 4 years that stands out?

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Postby The Shark » Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:59 pm

Thanks everyone - great discussion.

That\'s a great point Jaydubs. 4 races now since the fence changes.

What diffence have they made? I have read some who would argue that maybe a couple of recent winners wouldn\'t have survived mistakes with the old fences. Any thoughts on that?

It does seem to be attracting a higher class of runner. Perhaps also earlier in their career?

Rather than just look at winners in forming tends/opinions, should we be looking at

All placed horses
Placed horses and those who fell still going well after competing a certain distance?
All finishing within xx of the winner?

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:26 pm

Last 4 years of the first 4

2016 -
Age - 9, 8, 13, 8
Weight - 10-07, 10-08, 10-06, 11-01
Official Rating - 148, 149, 147, 156
Previous Run - 4th in a Grade 3, 1st in a Class 2 Chase, Unplaced in a Grade 2, Unplaced in a Grade 1
Last Run - March (CH), March, Feb, March (CH)

2015 -
Age - 8, 9, 10, 10
Weight - 11-09, 10-06, 10-07, 10-03
Official Rating - 160, 143, 144, 140
Previous Run - Unplaced in a Grade 1, Won a Class 3 Chase, Unplaced in a Class 2 Chase, Unplaced in a Class 2 Chase
Last Run - March (CH), Feb, March (CH), Feb

2014 -
Age - 11, 10, 8, 9
Weight - 10-06, 10-13, 10-11, 10-02
Official Rating - 143, 150, 148, 139
Previous Run - Placed in a Class 1 Chase, Won a Class 2 Chase, Unplaced in a Class 2 Chase, Pulled up in a Class 2 Chase
Last Run - March (CH), March (CH), March, Jan

2013 -
Age - 11, 11, 9, 12
Weight - 10-03, 10-11, 11-03, 10-11
Official Rating - 137, 145, 151, 145
Previous Run - Unplaced in a Class 1 Chase, Placed in a Class 1 Chase, Unplaced in a Grade 3 Chase, Unplaced in a Class 2 Chase
Last Run - March, Feb, Feb, March

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