Grand National Trends for 2017 Race?

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Postby jaydubs » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:16 pm

Cheers micko.. interesting the age seems to be coming down...

So bar vice canvas at 13.. and it made a horrible mistake early on and maybe could have gone.. Every finisher bar 1 was 8 or 9 yo

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:25 pm

Also, 10 of the 16 had their last run in March, 6 of them at the Festival, so freshness is probably less of an issue these days

As my trend says, 17 of the last 20 winners carried 11-01 or less, 14 of the 16 placed horses did too, which looks very strong

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:42 am

Age is the factor..9-year-old seems popular, so stick with that trend.
Then weight have to between 10-6 to 10-8.
So it will narrow down a few from the race..
And get an odd 11-0 plus in the places...

Going look was against Many Clouds of defending his title.
So maybe better on good going!!
So vice versa if this winner defend his crown next year!!
Example if it be good going might could rule that one out to!!

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Postby The Shark » Tue Apr 12, 2016 2:39 pm

5 of the last 8 winners carried 11st or more
6 of the last 8 winners were aged 10 or older

It depends how you look at these stats doesn't it. You can frame them either way.

We know a horse needs three key things going for them

1) The have to be well handicapped
2) They have to stay
3) They have to jump well

Can age and weight really answer these three points. A lightly raced 11 or 12 or even 13 year old could be well handicapped. A 7 year old can have enough stamina to stay long distances and beat older horses. Djakadam is a twice gold cup runner up and still only 7, you can't say he doesn't stay.

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Postby PompeyJim » Tue Apr 12, 2016 5:11 pm

Interested to here members thoughts on the wearing headgear aspect ?

The Shark touched on it at the beginning and personally was something that was a key factor in my analysis (unsuccesful!) of the big race Saturday.

Rule The World didn't wear headgear and looking down the field you could have eliminated half the field on that score. One of the placed horses wore cheekpieces if I remember correctly.

Going back to 1997 only two winners have worn some sort of headgear -

Earth Summit wore blinkers in 1998 and Comply Or Die did in 2008.

Remember reading some time ago regards the possibility of this being considered a negative in a race of this nature with up to 40 runners over these fences, with fallers and the blinkers restricting vision somewhat.

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Postby The Shark » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:32 am

Yes thats a really interesting point PompeyJim

It was touted about a lot until Earth Summit won. Then less so but many argued that Earth Summit ran so wide he effectively ran on his own and wouldn't have been inconvenienced by not having a clear view of the other runners.

Not heard much about it since comply or die won.

Back in the day, horses only used to wear headgear if they weren't genuine - wouldn't go by others. These days there seems to be all sorts of reasons. More recently there has been a trend at Cheltenham and other big races of horses winning and running well in first time headgear. First time headgear used to be something to avoid, now some would argue its a positive - another example of changing trends! But yes in terms of Grand National its an interesting one. What do others think - should headgear be a negative in the GN?

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Postby The Shark » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:51 am

Just had a quick look through and as far as I can see, only comply or die has finished in the top 7 of the GN wearing blinkers or visor in the last 10 runnings.

As far as I can see from a quick look, only Earth Summit has won the Becher wearing blinkers/visor in the history of the race.

Couldnt find a winner of the Topham going back 15 odd years.

So plenty of stats to support the theory that headgear is a negative over the national fences.

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Postby TeddyT » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:59 am

This link is from the Racing Post and lists the changes that have been put into place in recent years at Aintree which might prove useful when looking at how the results have altered since these changes:

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... t7DaysNews
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Postby jaydubs » Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:36 am

going to have to have a good look at this again ....

any correlation between softer ground and results (age, weight, OR etc)

last 4 years have been the biggest changes.... in which Morris, Sherwood, Smith and Newland have won.. previous to that Nicholls, McCain, Jonjo, Venetia Williams, David Pipe and Gordon Elliott.

Can these trainers win it again ?

2016
Paul Nicholls 5 entries ... no places
David Pipe 3 entries ... no places
Willie Mullins 4 entries ... no places
Phillip Hobbs 2 entries .. no places
Donald McCain ... no runners (did his well handicapped ones not make the cut?)

2105
Paul Nicholls 4 entries ... no places
David Pipe 1 entry ... no places
Willie Mullins 1 entry .. no places
Phillip Hobbs 3 entries ... no places
Donald McCain 2 entries .. no places


Not gone back further than the last 2 years at the moment but it may be that its going to be a lot harder for the "bigger" trainers to hide horses without exposing them if they want to get a run,...

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Postby Micko70 » Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:49 am

Interesting that you have picked a race that has yet to be run (89 years time) :lol:

I never thought of the trainer angle, carrying on with your trainer for the 2 previous years

2014
Paul Nicholls - 3 runners - 5th place
David Pipe - 3 runners - No place
Willie Mullins - 2 runners - No place
Phillip Hobbs - 2 runners - 2nd & 6th place
Donald McCain - 2 runners - No place

2013
Paul Nicholls - 3 runners - No place
David Pipe - 1 runner - 6th place
Willie Mullins - 3 runners - No place
Phillip Hobbs - 1 runner - Unplaced
Donald McCain - 3 runners - No place

Will have a look tomorrow to see if anything else pops up

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Postby The Shark » Mon Apr 18, 2016 11:32 am

Yes there aren't really any trainers with a consistently good record in the race from a number of runners, aside from perhaps Jonjo Neill

2016 - 9th, Fell
2015 - 5th
2014 - Unseated Rider, Fell
2013 - Pulled Up, Unseated Rider
2012 - 2nd, Fell, Unseated Rider
2011 - 3rd, Unseated Rider, Fell
2010 - 1st, Fell
2009 - 7th, Fell, Brought Down
2008 - Pulled Up, Fell
2007 - 11th
2006 - 3rd, 5th
2005 - 3rd, 21st, Unseated Rider, Carried Out
2004 - 2nd, Pulled Up
2003 - 7th

But maybe the odds reflect this, his two runners this year went off at 11/1, 12/1
Last year 6/1
2010 winner was 10/1
2011 3rd was 9/1
2012 2nd was 16/1

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Postby Zipster » Thu Apr 21, 2016 12:27 pm

I started to question the trends before this years race with all the changes being made to the fences and I honestly believe that the winner would not had won it over the old fences but that's just my opinion however there are still some trends which seem to oblige each year.

Horses who have never placed in a Handicap Chase are 0-103 since 1997 with only 6 of those placing but no places since 2009, that generally rules out 4-5 each year.

Aintree is described as a 'Galloping' track and runners who had previous had 10 or fewer starts at a 'Galloping' track produced winners in both 1997 & 1998 however since then 183 runners have been out without producing a winner, 15 of those have placed including The Last Samuri this year but at the same time would have eliminated 11 of this years field including 5 who failed to finish.

We have the usual 'Best In Three' of 1st, 2nd or 3rd anything other than those have only produced 1 winner since 1997 from 208 runners, that was Auroras Encore in 2013, we had 10 in the field this year of which 8 failed to finish however the other two did place (Vic Canvas & Gilgamboa).

Another that I tend to throw in is going all the way back to the runners debut and to eliminate those who finished outside the first five home, since 2010 69 have been out and failed and this year there were 7, none of which placed, the last winner was Mon Mome back in 2009 and since 1997 has produced just 2 winners (Amberleigh House) from 204 runners.
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