Scottish Grand National 2016

The Market Man
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Scottish Grand National 2016

Postby The Market Man » Mon Apr 04, 2016 8:50 am

Only a week after Aintree and attention switches to Ayr.

I like A Good Skin at the moment. Ran well at Cheltenham to finish second in the Kim Muir, runs like he needs a trip, has won in April both seasons since his debut and the yard are in excellent form. His odds will drop should Saint Are run well in the big one and I think he's value already at 20s.

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Postby Monkeyboy250981 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:43 pm

Not sure who is going to make it into the race at the moment but a few that interest me are:

Causes of Causes - goes on the expected testing ground, but proved can go on good ground too when winning at Cheltenham last month, and had a couple of the other potential runners in this race in behind(Sego Success & Good Skin) and although they are on better terms in this race I still fancy this one to be there at the end.
Also seems to thrive in big fields.

Milansbar - Does the distance, likes the expected ground. Wasn't far behind Firebird Flyer in the Midlands National.

Which leads me to....

Golden Chieftain - Would have won the Midlands National if he hadn't fell at the last, assuming none the worse for that fall, is a major player in the Scottish National if he can stay upright, and that's a big IF on recent efforts as also fell race before that when clear.

No doubt I will change my mind 4 times before the race on Saturday, but these are my early thoughts.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:09 pm

Busy doing my trends blog for the race, in 2015, the trends gave the 4th place horse at 14/1 and in 2014, the trends gave the 5th placed horse at 50/1, with many bookies paying 5 places.

Hopefully they can follow suit this year, should be live on Tuesday, will post the link here

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:41 am

Trends blog for this years race http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411028

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Postby The Executioner » Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:14 pm

Three that catch my attention are

Seeyouatmidnight ....... widely available @14/1

Highland Lodge @25/1 ( bet365 & SkyBet )

Folsom Blue ....... widely available @25/1



Can trainer Mouse Morris land a treble of Grand National winners in the space of a couple of weeks with the latter named ??

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:01 pm

First agree with you The Ex, on Highland Lodge nice Each Way..
Thought he was going run in our National, needed a few to come out.
But Highland Lodge had extra week rest, he will love the trip.

Also i fancy Bless The Wings also missed not getting
in National line up. think 2nd in Irish Grand National.
So think those are the two for me.
Now just waiting on the going...

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Postby Robmull » Thu Apr 14, 2016 5:37 pm

I will need to undertake a bit of pruning in the next 24 hours, but my trends based blog (link below) has identified 5 qualifiers from the 30 runners, which can currently be backed at odds ranging from 20/1 to 40/1, which is interesting as 5 of the last 10 winners started at odds of between 18/1 and 66/1.

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase Key Race Trends – 16 April 2016
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411037

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Postby Robmull » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:56 pm

Pruning of shortlist has now been completed, leaving 3 Each Way selections which can currently be backed (1/4 odds : 5 places) at best odds of 20/1, 33/1 x 2.

Best of luck to all readers with their selections in the race.

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase Key Race Trends – 16 April 2016 – Updated with Final Comments and Selections
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411037

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Postby Ridger » Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:04 pm

Alvarado comes here after failing to get a run in the Aintree National. Had finished 4th in both 2014 and 2015 and was lightly raced. Fills most the strong trends and likes the longer distance. 25-1 and 5 places with PP.

Masters Hill did well against Alvarado and several others lto. Doesn't always get to finishing line, but when it does, has only finished outside top 3 once in career, when 5th in G1. Stamina test here and jumps a bit to left at times, but has habit of being involved at front as well as finding 1 or 2 too good. 40-1 and 5 places with bet365

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Postby Micko70 » Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:13 pm

Updated trends Blog with 3 selections, The blog has achieved a placed selection in each of the last 2 years, including 1 at 50/1

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411028

Randy Rann
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Scottish National

Postby Randy Rann » Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:55 pm

I was pleased to see TOUR DES CHAMPS score so heavily in Robmull's blog as I had him picked from an early stage.

Was 4th in 2013 in the race as a novice and as the ground is much softer this time around looks really well handicapped off a mark just 2lb higher. Take in account Ryan Hatch's 3lb claim and he actually is a 1lb lower.

Ran well last time at Newbury when ground was too quick and has won twice this season when getting soft ground and a stiff test and the form of both of those wins have worked out okay.

Nigel Twiston Davies has a cracking record in this and won it three times with horses priced 9-1, 6-1 & 12-l.

He's had 5 places too (including 4 from just 8 runners since 2010) and they returned at 10-1, 20-1, 25-1, 33-1 & 33-1.

He has had 25 runners since 1992 including those 3 winners in Captain Dibble in 92, Earth Summit in 1994 & Hello Bud in 2009 and may well have won again last year as Cogry was going well enough when he fell nearing home.

If you'd backed all those horses 1pt Each Way you would have returned 72pts for a very healthy +£22 lsp.

Very taking figures and as many horses have run well in this race more than once I really fancy Tour Des Champs off a low weight as soft ground will slow many of these down. He has shown he stays in this race before and can plod on for a place at the very least.

33-1 looks cracking value but if quick Paddy Power were going 40's and 5 places.

Trainer still in fair form and I really rate this one's chances and though anything can happen given a clear round I'm sure he will go close.

I'll probably have a saver on old favourite Golden Chieftain too but I've had a fair bet on Tour des Champs and think the bookies have made a rick as do believe he will trade shorter tomorrow.

Anyway good luck with your punts tomorrow.

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Postby Derbz87 » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:50 pm

Also on Tour Des Champs E/W and I couldn't believe a former Welsh National winner and renowned stayer Emperors Choice was at 40/1 so I took a bit of that E/W too. So many cases could be made for so many to be fair!

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