6 Places On the Grand National Discussion

Derbz87
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Postby Derbz87 » Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:24 pm

Pretty sure both of Rebecca Curtis horses will run The Market Man, certainly the impression I got from this interview from yesterday in Guardian.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/a ... mford-pele

The question mark would be around the McManus group - Gilgamboa, Gallant Oscar, Shutthefrontdoor and Pendra would he want all of them running and I'd tend to agree that Pendra might drop but he is the lowest in the handicap so who knows on that one. Beyond that I think Venetia's previously been quoted as saying Aachen and Katenko were her definates for the national and she hoped to have others so unless there are problems with fitness or health I can't see that changing regardless of the going. I could see Sir Des Champs dropping - Mullins has 4 entered including him and Gigginstown also have First Leiutenant, Rule the world and Ucello Conti so that might make sense but then again it might be in their best interests to try and keep some of the lurkers out from the bottom of weights. Problem Alvarado also has is we know that the three above him in the waiting list all want to run in this for certain. It'll be touch and go I doubt many trainers will leave their horses in for the national - the big one - and not run them having got them in the top 40 at this stage.

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Postby The Market Man » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:58 pm

Alvarado is 48th. The list I saw after the decs ( might have been Racing Post website ) had him about 4 places higher. Someone might have got the order wrong for each weight.

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Postby Derbz87 » Tue Apr 05, 2016 4:29 pm

Yeah I was going off Racing Post site too hence why I got it wrong although it seems like between them, ATR and Sporting Life they've all got different ones. Either way Alvarado ain't getting a run from down there. Must say I sympaphise to a degree with owners and trainers of Alvarado and Pineau de re but all this talk about a win and your in system wouldn't make any difference to either of those two who are in the twilight of their careers anyway and haven't done enough this season to earn a shot. Bishops Road connections should be the ones to feel agrieved if no-one else comes out having won the trial at Haydock. I think if the penalties for subsequent race wins aren't provided as an option then why on earth is Phil Smith announcing the weights two months before the bloody race its just madness. Might as well turn round to anyone at the original weights below 100 in the list or so and just say sorry but your out they've got no chance.

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Postby The Market Man » Tue Apr 05, 2016 5:12 pm

I've never understood why those horses higher than 80th in the original entry stay in anyway. Why are Harry The Viking and Financial Climate, for example, still there ?!

I would have the entries done prior to the Becher and Grand Sefton. Connections then have until February, after the Haydock Trail, when the official weights for the race itself are announced. That gives us three or four months where courses could have official trials ( as they do for the Pertemps )
Horses like Katenko should not be in this race - no higher than 11th in two years is the type of form which should be disqualified.

At present, Phil Smith makes a massive fuss about the time and thought required for forming the handicap when all he does is adjust a pound or two here or there from official ratings.

Modernise horse racing's greatest, most celebrated race and both increase and improve public perception of the sport in general.

It's so typical of horse racing. There's a £1m race and yet the qualification system is from the dark ages.

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Postby The Market Man » Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:54 pm

Yeah I was going off Racing Post site too hence why I got it wrong although it seems like between them, ATR and Sporting Life they've all got different ones. Either way Alvarado ain't getting a run from down there. Must say I sympaphise to a degree with owners and trainers of Alvarado and Pineau de re but all this talk about a win and your in system wouldn't make any difference to either of those two who are in the twilight of their careers anyway and haven't done enough this season to earn a shot. Bishops Road connections should be the ones to feel agrieved if no-one else comes out having won the trial at Haydock. I think if the penalties for subsequent race wins aren't provided as an option then why on earth is Phil Smith announcing the weights two months before the bloody race its just madness. Might as well turn round to anyone at the original weights below 100 in the list or so and just say sorry but your out they've got no chance.
All horses below the 40 cut off point were reordered by Phil Smith earlier this week.

I mean - how ridiculous is that ?! He's lamenting the absence of Alvarado and yet he dropped him further down only a few days before the race,

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Postby nors » Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:36 am

Looking at the betting currently you have around 6 horses predominately under 20/1. Then in the next group you have 9 horses between 20/1 and 30/1 predominately. From this group i would expect a placed horse or 2. (First 5 with some bookies, First 6 with Bet Victor)
Gallant Oscar
Causes Of Causes
Shutthefrontdoor
Goonyella
Bishops Road
Morning Assembly
Ucello Conti
Boston Bob
Kruzhlinin

The 5 with Bet Victor who are underpriced because of paying the 1st 6 are currently

Causes Of Causes
Shutthefrontdoor
Goonyella
Bishops Road
Kruzhlinin

So 1 of those or 2 of those to place ?

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Postby nors » Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:03 am

3 of them are Irish and the betting suggests its a British Horse that will win.

so that leaves.

Shutthefrontdoor
Bishops Road
Kruzhlinin

Simples!!

See the previews on those horses on the [url=httphttp://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-na ... unners.php]Grand National Guide[/url]

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/g ... unners.php

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Postby nors » Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:46 am

An update on the market and reading between the lines from the other day. (See above. )

Originally the Bet Victor betting short list was

Gallant Oscar
Causes Of Causes
Shutthefrontdoor
Goonyella
Bishops Road
Morning Assembly
Ucello Conti
Boston Bob
Kruzhlinin

Now some of those have drifted and some have been scratched.

Looking at their market this morning
Goonyella still looks positive as does Shutthefrontdoor. From the original list i would add in Gallant Oscar to make the 6 with Bet Victor.

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Postby mazeymay » Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:16 pm

SPAM IN

joannemalone1
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Postby joannemalone1 » Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:42 pm

Thanks Mazeymay :win:

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