6 Places On the Grand National Discussion

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6 Places On the Grand National Discussion

Postby nors » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:21 am

Bet Victor are the first bookies to go 6 places on the Grand National this year, some more may follow.

So i thought we could debate which horse at a decent price is going to make the 6?

Please highlight anything above 20/1 for the purpose of this thread.

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Postby DAVIDADAN » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:43 am

In the National stats thread (link below) The Shark highlighted Paul Moloneys place record for the last seven years 4,4,2,4,4,3,4 over the past 7 Grand Nationals, that is an incredible record! 40/1 for me looks fair for ALVORADO.
Once the daily rags start posting about the race and interviewing jockeys, looking at statistics etc, I really don't think that will be so big on the day.

Apologies, forgot stats link:
http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... t=#1525046
Last edited by DAVIDADAN on Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby The Market Man » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:47 am

Last years runner up, Saint Are. Currently 45th but i think at least 9 or 10 will be scratched so he'll get a run. Whilst The Druids Nephew is short enough in the betting despite running off a 9lb higher mark and failing to finish last year, we can get 25-1 on last years runner up off only 3lb higher. Won his recent prep race, as he did last year.

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:41 pm

For nice Each Way be going for!!
Bless The Wings currently 50/1..
After his 2nd in the Irish National.
Don t know if he top 40 field? Or need how many to come out..
So should see out the trip!!
Well my first Each Way so far, if he runs!! might be shorter than than..

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Postby Derbz87 » Thu Mar 31, 2016 7:51 am

It might be me being a tad naive and cynical after Cheltenham but is there actually any point in betting antepost on the national given that so many factors will come into play on the days before.... will they make the cut or not, jockey selections and probably most critical of all the going! At least we have one certainty for trend purposes in that Many Clouds running keeps the weights up. I took 25/1 on Saint Are a few weeks ago purely because I know he's a certain intended runner and represents value compared to what he should go off on the day (he was 25/1 last year) realistically if its not got good in the going description I can forget any win propsects though.

Looking at the prices of last years 39 horses on the day:
5 went off at 10/1 or shorter (Fav Shutthefrontdoor was 6/1 SP)
8 went off between 11 and 20/1
7 went off between 21 and 30/1
8 went off between 31 and 40/1
4 went off between 41 and 50/1
7 went off at odds greater than 51/1

First four home were all available at odds greater than 20/1 at the race start remember. Look at the betting now for the 40 shortest horses using the best prices available (I've had to use this site's make a tip function as Oddschecker is down so doesn't include exchanges)

One horse under 10/1 in Many Clouds (he could be under 5/1 on the day realistically)
6 horses between 11 and 20/1 (Last Samuri, Conti, Holywell, Druids Nephew. Goonyella, Cause of Causes)
4 horses are 25/1 (Kruzhlinin, Saint Are, Shutthefrontdoor, Carlingford Lough)
9 are at 33/1
8 are 40/1
12 more at 50/1

I'd say if you don't fancy something currently available at or under the 25/1 mark I'd hold off because chances are with the exception of Cause of Causes not getting in or going for something else the other 10 are near certain runners and their prices will head south slightly. The rest of the field naturally shorten if they make the cut but I think realistically we've got most of our 20/1 and under horses for the day outlined above and there will still be value on the day/days before particularly with trainer comments, jockey bookings, the going, 'so called' expert picks and the bookies will be falling over eachother in the days before to drum up business.

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Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:03 pm

Horses like Shutthefrontdoor and Saint Are will be under 20-1 on the day. National form and catchy National names always get backed.

Ballycasey could well be the choice of Ruby again so he'll be shorter odds on the day. No chance he goes off at 80-1.
Goonyella might be 12s
Buywise might be 33s

Roi Du Mee has had some of my money. Stays, jumps and is related to a horse who finished a staying on second in the Irish National. I think he could run really well for a 100-1 chance, particularly those paying first 6

I picked Le Reve and Smad Place last year as likely types for this renewal and whilst Smad Place has proven to be well handicapped and won his races already, i think Le Reve might be a right handed track horse. Doesn't seem to run to form when going left handed.

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Postby nors » Thu Mar 31, 2016 5:31 pm

Above 20/1 bet365 Prices for some horses who may well get into the race.

Have this as a record for future price movements + will be checking handicap marks.

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Postby Gman84 » Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:02 pm

Of the longer prices the one I like is Buywise. He's a pain of a horse in that he usually starts slowly or even misses the break and he's never tried anything like his distance but he finishes his races well and always looks like there is plenty left. If he can just avoid a poor start and being too far out of contention early I think he's got a live chance of picking up a place.
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Postby The Market Man » Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:42 pm

Of the longer prices the one I like is Buywise. He's a pain of a horse in that he usually starts slowly or even misses the break and he's never tried anything like his distance but he finishes his races well and always looks like there is plenty left. If he can just avoid a poor start and being too far out of contention early I think he's got a live chance of picking up a place.
There's encouragement on the dams side of the family that he'll stay. He's related to Sixteen, who won the Pardubicka twice. Could well run on for a place and 6th in the National can be a fence behind almost.

9 have come out and Saint Are is guaranteed a run if fit.

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Postby JoeWBA » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:18 pm

Of the longer prices the one I like is Buywise. He's a pain of a horse in that he usually starts slowly or even misses the break and he's never tried anything like his distance but he finishes his races well and always looks like there is plenty left. If he can just avoid a poor start and being too far out of contention early I think he's got a live chance of picking up a place.
I really think his jumping will let him down. He's got plenty of ability but makes a very awkward shape over his fences and loses a lot of momentum, which I believe is due to him having a metal plate in his back

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Postby Derbz87 » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:51 pm

I have to say Buywise has taken my eye lately as well I know there's the reservations about his jumping but we've had it stressed to us no end about how the national fences aren't what they were etc.... he's actually had a really nice consistent season in some tough races, doesn't seem terribly handicapped and there'd be question marks about him staying but the sames arguably true of about half of the top 40 entries so far including a lot towards the head of the betting! Certainly the way he runs suggests he's got plenty in the tank in the finish over 3M where he does his best work and picks horses off.

We all know about Trainer Evan Williams legendary record in this - Cappa Bleu (placed in consecutive nationals) and State of Play (placed consecutively in three nationals).... jockey on board for each of those occasions a certain Paul Moloney and guess who he'll almost certainly be on board if Alvarado misses the cut!! Exchanges are 60/1 and drifting on Alvarado I think they're pretty sure he'll miss out, needs 4 to come out which might happen but if it doesn't after Thursday the 50's on offer for Buywise at the moment will shorten due to trainer/jockey combo

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Postby The Market Man » Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:24 pm

I think Alvarado might get in. He's 44th, there are a couple ahead of him who are supposed to have other targets now and Curtis said only one of Romford Pele and O'Faolains Boy was running. Pendra is unlikely to run.
I can see four or five who might be hoping for a deluge before Saturday.
The going is currently Soft, Good to Soft in places and with only April showers forecast until Saturday, it's unlikely to be testing enough for horses like Aachen or Katenko.

Moloney was down for Buywise this morning but now appears next to Alvarado.

Alvarado is 33s with Bet Victor.

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