Statistics and Trends For The Grand National

nors
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Statistics and Trends For The Grand National

Postby nors » Mon Mar 21, 2016 12:19 pm

What Statistics and Trends can help us find an Aintree Grand National horse that is going to run well?

The quality of the race has improved in recent years with trainers entering better quality animals has this affected results?

Which prep races have highlighted winners?

What odds are winners?

What age are horses that run well?

Is the weight carried as important as it use to be ?

Any stat or trend that can help us please add.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:14 pm

Will add a few later

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:47 pm

17 of the last 20 winners were aged 9, 10 or 11, only Many Clouds (8) in 2015, Amberleigh House (12) in 2004 & Bindaree (8) in 2002 have broken that trend

126 of the 399 runners in those 10 years were not aged 9, 10 or 11, which equates to 31.58%, yet they have won only 15% of races, which suggests that they perform badly in this race

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:51 pm

14 of the last 20 winners were Irish bred

Irish bred horses have filled 30 of the first 4 places in the last 10 years (40 places)
Last edited by Micko70 on Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:11 pm

17 of the last 20 winners carried 11-01 or less

In the last 20 years, 148 of the 734 horses have carried 11-02 or more (20.16%), which is slightly higher than the 15% for the amount of winners from that group.

The above figures are slightly distorted when looking at the first runnings of the 20 year period, in 1999 only 1 horse carried more than 11-01, 3 did in 1998, again it was 1 in 1997 & 3 in 1996.

So if we exclude those 4 races, the figures are 13 of the last 16 winners carried 11-01 or less (81.25%)

140 horses from 602 have carried 11-02 or more (23.26%) and 3 won, (18.75%), which isn't far off

This year we have 10 horses weighted 11-02 or more, although a few probably won't run

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Postby horage » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:26 pm

having tipped up the last 2 winners of the national at monster prices I'M now
looking at the cheltenham form to see what could go on to make the frame at aintree.

I think one of the best trials for the national is the gold cup;it was MANY CLOUDS prep race last season .

looking at those running on at the finish I think both carlingford lough and
don poli can be given e.w. chances in the national ; however i dont bet ante post
very often so i will be waiting untill its non runner no bet .

national selections

CARLINGFORD LOUGH ; MANY CLOUDS and DON POLI.... :hope:

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:35 pm

16 of the last 20 winners were rated 139 or more

17 of the last 20 finished in the first 5 on their last completed start

17 of the last 20 winners had their last run between 20 & 49 days ago

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:40 pm

having tipped up the last 2 winners of the national at monster prices I'M now
looking at the cheltenham form to see what could go on to make the frame at aintree.

I think one of the best trials for the national is the gold cup;it was MANY CLOUDS prep race last season .

looking at those running on at the finish I think both carlingford lough and
don poli can be given e.w. chances in the national ; however i dont bet ante post
very often so i will be waiting untill its non runner no bet .

national selections

CARLINGFORD LOUGH ; MANY CLOUDS and DON POLI.... :hope:
Sorry, but how can you say the Gold Cup is one of the best trials for the National, only 1 of the last 10 winners had run in that years Gold Cup
Last edited by Micko70 on Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:43 pm

Looking at the trends i have used above - Age, Breeding, Weight, Official Rating, Last Time Out & Last Run, i am left with a list of 14 horses, which i will now go through in fine detail

The 14 horses are as follows -

1F-662 The Druids Nephew(35) 9 11-0 Neil Mulholland 155
3-54P2 Holywell(25) 9 10-12 Jonjo O´Neill 153
15-3P Shutthefrontdoor(35) 9 10-11 Jonjo O´Neill 152
0-50P1 Boston Bob(49) 11 10-10 W P Mullins 151
3-224 Morning Assembly(25) 9 10-9 P A Fahy 150
2-3942 Goonyella(34) 9 10-8 J T R Dreaper 149
3-1U75 Gallant Oscar(34) 10 10-8 A J Martin 149
B-4935 Ballycasey(23) 9 10-6 W P Mullins 147
P-532P Shotgun Paddy(21) 9 10-3 Emma Lavelle 144
5361P Mountainous(49) 11 10-1 Kerry Lee 142
343143 Bless The Wings(24) 11 10-0 Gordon Elliott 141
09772 Milborough(20) 10 9-13 Ian Duncan 140
P4F-UP Gas Line Boy(49) 10 9-13 Ian Williams 140
P1FPP Bob Ford(21) 9 9-12 Rebecca Curtis 139

Hopefully the trends can emulate Pineau De Re's win in 2014, at the then advised price of 33/1

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Postby JoeWBA » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:51 pm

having tipped up the last 2 winners of the national at monster prices I'M now
looking at the cheltenham form to see what could go on to make the frame at aintree.

I think one of the best trials for the national is the gold cup;it was MANY CLOUDS prep race last season .

looking at those running on at the finish I think both carlingford lough and
don poli can be given e.w. chances in the national ; however i dont bet ante post
very often so i will be waiting untill its non runner no bet .

national selections

CARLINGFORD LOUGH ; MANY CLOUDS and DON POLI.... :hope:
Hasn't O'Leary already said that Don Poli won't be running in the national this year as he's too young?

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Postby The Shark » Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:23 pm

Yes the shape of the National is definately changing and Many Clouds blew a few trends last year.

The class of runner is improving and on decent ground I wouldn\'t be surprised to see more higher weighted horses run well again this year.

In which case, if they are well handicapped then either they won\'t have run too much and be unexposed or they will be young and improving. So I think I\'ll be ignoring the weight trend and considering 8 year olds this year.

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Postby The Market Man » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:52 pm

Not sure it's all due to better horses - the number of horses rated over 140 has doubled within the last decade whilst Phil Smith has been chief handicapper

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