Statistics and Trends For The Grand National

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:15 am

I have just finished my update for the Grand National trends blog, 1 horse passes all 10 trends and 12 horses pass 9, but using a points system, 1 horse sits in clear 2nd place, with another 5 in 3rd place.

Blog will be updated on Tuesday

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Postby jaydubs » Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:58 am

Must have run in last 54 days
Must have had 10+chase starts ..
Have won 3 chase starts
Have won a race over 3m
Have won a race worth over 13k
Have won a class 1 or 2 chase

I always like to see horses that haven\'t fallen as well

Those for me are key stats and are my start line to get the field down. It may leave a few more this year but I will use other trends to get them narrowed down further

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Postby nors » Tue Mar 22, 2016 10:01 am

As the Grand National has become safer with easier fences has this attracted a better quality of horse? This was not the intention when the GN was made safer but it seems trainers are now looking at their better quality animals, and they are prepared to "risk" them over the GN fences.

Last year:

RESULT
Aintree 4.15
1 Many Clouds (25/1)
2 Saint Are (25/1)
3 Monbeg Dude (40/1)
4 Alvarado (20/1)
5 Shutthefrontdoor (6/1)
6 Royale Knight (25/1)
7 Tranquil Sea (33/1)
8 Cause Of Causes (14/1)
9 Soll (9/1)
10 Chance Du Roy (40/1)
11 Mon Parrain (33/1)
12 Pineau De Re (25/1)
13 Owega Star (50/1)
14 Spring Heeled (25/1)
15 Oscar Time (20/1)
16 First Lieutenant (14/1)
17 Rocky Creek (8/1)
18 Night In Milan (20/1)
19 Dolatulo (66/1)
Non-finishers
Fell 1) Ely Brown
Fell 1) Gas Line Boy
Unseated 1) Al Co
Unseated 3) Rubi Light
Pulled Up 4) Corrin Wood
Fell 5) Unioniste
Fell 6) River Choice
Fell 8) Balthazar King
Unseated 8) Ballycasey
Pulled Up 19) Court By Surprise
Pulled Up 25) Across The Bay
Pulled Up 25) Super Duty
Pulled Up 25) Lord Windermere
Fell 26) The Rainbow Hunter
Fell 26) The Druids Nephew
Pulled Up 27) Rebel Rebellion
Fell 28) Portrait King
Pulled Up 29) Godsmejudge
Pulled Up 29) Wyck Hill
Pulled Up 29) Bob Ford

Did you find the winner last year Micko?

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:48 am

No not last year, the 4 selections were Mon Parrain, Night In Milan, Soll & Al Co

3 finished and 1 was unseated

The trends did find the 2014 winner Pineau De Re though and advised at 33/1

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Postby The Shark » Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:56 pm

Just been updating our Grand National site and Paul Maloneys record in the race

Incredible over the last seven years - 4,4,2,4,4,3,4

2015 Alvarado
2014 Alvarado
2013 Cappa Bleu
2012 Cappa Bleu
2011 State of Play
2010 State of Play
2009 State of Play

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:07 pm

Alvarado only needs 11 horses to drop out this year to get a run, currently priced around the 40/1 mark

Will he ride again this year

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Postby The Shark » Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:12 pm

It will be interesting if he does leave Alvardo for something else Micko - he rides for Evan Williams mainly and he has an interesting one in the race - Buywise.

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Postby DAVIDADAN » Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:31 pm

Interesting but I think he will get the leg up as all those he got to place were in the colours of the Rucker family. Moloney certainly knows what he has under him at any given time and paces his mounts well. 40/1 looks worthwhile, though the jockey did break a leg at Ludlow in December that would concern me a bit.
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Postby man o bong » Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:34 pm

It will be interesting if he does leave Alvardo for something else Micko - he rides for Evan Williams mainly and he has an interesting one in the race - Buywise.
That's another place then! Although could be great placement, if a horse ever needed a one mile run in after the last Buywise if the one
When you're told you can't do something, do it and prove them wrong

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:00 pm

1 of the horses that only fails on 1 of my trends is an Evan Williams Horse, Firebird Flyer, but needs 32 to come out to get a run.

Buywise ran a decent race in the SkyBet Chase, although runs off the same mark

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:20 pm

First here is my version what i use each year..
Also picked last year winner Many Clouds and i also I look for an improving 8 year old so i can follow for long time.

My Grand National info...

Winners ages- since the war.
8 -12 ( Last year winning age..)
9 - 24 winners ( Popular age to win National.)
10 -13
11 - 11 ( Before last year winner Many Clouds age 8, three 11 year olds
won on the trot.)
12 - 9

That will rule out 7 year olds and 13 year olds above.
So age 9 is very popular.
But another form book can go out the window??
if a 7 year olds and 13 year olds above etc win it?
Anything is possible!! What makes Grand National very interesting story
when it happens every year !!
Pineau De Re Regain his crown!! : Last 13 year old win it was..
1923 Sergeant Murphy

1: Last 12 year old winner was Amberleigh House back in 2004.
So a 12 year old!! is due to win a race!!

2: Weights also last year winner- highest weight comes in at 11-9
For a while..
11-6 next highest in 2012, and 11-5 in 2010.
Apart from Hedgehunter win in 2005 at 11-1 winners average age is
between 10 stone plus.
Have to go back to 1988 winner Rhyme N Reason won with 11-0.
Be for last year top weight come in..
So best to look for a weight from 10-12 to 10-6.

3: Last 10-0 winner was Rubstic in 1979.

4: Double carpets winners- Since void race 1993.
Only three 33/1 shots have won since Red Marauder back in 2001.
Latest one more recent was Neptune Collonges in 2012.And other one Silver Birch back in 2007.

5: Most biggest longshot result 100/1 – don t see that often + nice surprise.
was more recent Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009.
Have to go back to Foinavon win In 1967 for next one.

6: Last 2 years- two 25/1 shots won, could it be possible also another one come in?

7: Now jockey:
Can Leighton Aspell score a hat-trick of wins?? Has got a chance.
But maybe not!! as both his wins was at 25/1 etc..
As Many Clouds is trading at moment 8/1 Fav..
Won 2014 Pineau De Re
Won2015 Many Clouds Won..
2016 ?? Many Clouds ???
Finally Can Many Clouds follow the footsteps of Red Rum??
and defend his crown?? Possible -dont rule out.
Another factor.. Many Clouds same age as Rummy when first won it age 8.
Yes be nice to see Many Clouds follow in Rummy footsteps and hold on
to his title he won last year..

Love this time of year, now for the National countdown..
Happy punting all..

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:00 pm

Ps...no8.
3 ladies trainers have won it, since the void race race..

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