Irish Grand National 2016

Micko70
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Irish Grand National 2016

Postby Micko70 » Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:47 pm

The Irish Grand National is run at Fairyhouse on Monday 28th March

Last years blog (HERE) picked out 3 horses, including the winner advised at 25/1

At present, Willie Mullins is responsible for the top weight Valseur Lido, who is rated 7lb higher than anything else, but he also has another 16 horses in the race.

Have you spotted anything that looked unlucky at Cheltenham and is handily weighted or anything that has been lined up for the race and bypassed Cheltenham.

I will be posting my trends blog here once finished.

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Postby Derbz87 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:21 pm

@Micko70 from a little bit of analysis I've done on the last 10 renewals horses aged 6-10 have won the lot, 10 13 was the max weight carried, 142 was the highest official rating and all bar one of the winners had raced within the previous 50 days. From that I noted that both Cause of causes and Bonny Kate are course winners and Cause of causes would have obvious claims but might be more likely for Aintree I'd have thought? Bonny Kate got a mention from Irish racing pundit Don Mcclean as one to follow after she won the national trial at Punchestown over 3M 4F she was very impressive from the front beating another possible contender Baie Des Iles with Folsom Blue a long way back in third. Since then and since the weights were out shes won a novice chase easily enough beating a potentially useful Mullins mare over shorter and I guess she'll carry a penalty for this if she runs, her overall career record is 6/12 so she clearly knows how to get the job done. She's from Noel Meades yard and is available best priced 14/1 with bet365 which is short enough given the poor record of shorties in this race [/b]

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Postby Derbz87 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:55 am

Weights are available to view here (OR in brackets) http://www.theirishfield.ie/WEBFILES/371390-202594.pdf
First scratching stage is tomorrow which should give us a clearer picture of likely runners. I was looking for more trends which could be of use and maybe it is, maybe it isn't but of the last 10 runnings half of the winners had raced at the Cheltenham Festival immediately before including the last 3 winners and the National Hunt Chase (Amateur riders) seems to be the race which yields winners in this although it is also worth noting that Easter is very early this year and the gap between Cheltenham and this is therefore a lot shorter than is often the case.

Runners who featured in this years National Hunt Chase in order of placings who are also entered for this:
Measureofmydreams (3rd), Pleasant Company (Pulled Up), Noble Endeavour (Fell), Shantou Flyer (Fell).... Pont Alexandre was sadly fatally injured in the same race and was entered for the National too.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:16 pm

Derbz87

Thanks for your input

I am doing a 14 year trends blog as previous runnings were in late April & early May, which should be up in a few days, hopefully it can highlight the winner, just like last years

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Postby The Market Man » Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:58 pm

Is Dedigout an intended runner ?

He looks potentially thrown in at the weights. Almost to the point that i think he can't be running because he's still available at big odds.

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:26 pm

Is Dedigout an intended runner ?

He looks potentially thrown in at the weights. Almost to the point that i think he can't be running because he's still available at big odds.
Good shout, his last 7 runs have all been in Graded hurdles

He was rated 148 for his last Chase in May 2013 but is now rated 157 over hurdles and gets in here off 143

He ranges from 14/1 (Boylesports & BetVictor) to 33/1 (Paddy Power), he is no bigger than 20/1 anywhere else, that suggests to me that either Paddy Power are being extremely generous or he is an unlikely runner

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Mar 23, 2016 5:43 pm

I have been looking at Mala Beach here and the stable had a good Cheltenham.

He has fallen a couple of times though and that's a bad habit to be acquiring.

I backed him in the Thyestes Chase, where he finished an honourable second.

Part of my interest in how Mala Beach performs is in relation to the third horse in the Thyestes, Ucello Conti, who I backed for the Grand National itself at 40/1. I feel he is a largely unconsidered Aintree contender and I am hoping Mala Beach can give the form a timely boost.

Other than the falls, I believe that Mala Beach has an excellent chance here. He looked like he was going to win before falling last time as warm favourite in a grade 2 race. He already has some big field experience in the competitive Thyestes Chase and his trainer is in good form and one of the best in his trade.

After the Thyestes, this is now only the 2nd Handicap Chase Mala Beach will have run in and I think he is a good bet at 12/1.

Venitien De Mai is on a roll but seems short in the betting, up 10lbs and looks a real mudlark. Bonny Kate has a name sure to be popular and is also on the winning trail, but she is only 6 and there has only been one winner of that age in the last 30 years.

Cause Of Causes and Empire Of Dirt were listed as doubtful for the race in places, so it seems sensible to pick a horse who is pretty sure to go to the race and that means Mala Beach for me.

Mala Beach 12/1, win only because of his previous falls making each-way less appealing as a saver option.

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Mar 23, 2016 5:50 pm

Is Dedigout an intended runner ?

He looks potentially thrown in at the weights. Almost to the point that i think he can't be running because he's still available at big odds.
He is not in the 40 declared Market Man.

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Postby The Market Man » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:34 pm

Noticed that earlier, LB

One who is though is Cause Of Causes. Looks like my Grand National bet is going south ( had him at big prices a few weeks ago ) and he's running at Fairyhouse so i might top up for this.

( he needs 17 to come out at Aintree and only 9 were withdrawn between now and the National last season )

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Postby Micko70 » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:26 pm

My blog has been finished for the Irish Grand National

2 horses pass all of the trends i have looked at - http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410936

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Postby Robmull » Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:49 pm

I have just completed my trends based blog (link below) for the Boylesports Irish Grand National, the analysis for which has highlighted just 1 possible runner who has met all 8 of the key trends, plus 3 further entries who have achieved the minimum threshold score, in line with all of the last 10 winners of the race.

Again, it is interesting that Micko and I have used different trends and have highlighted different qualifiers, so hopefully we can find the winner between us.

Boylesports Irish Grand National Chase Key Race Trends - 28 March 2016
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410939

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Postby Derbz87 » Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:52 am

I think the going could play a big part in this by my analysis a lot of these are mud-lark types..... today its Yielding (Yielding-Soft in places) forecast of dry day today and rain through to Monday so what are we thinking? Certainly be on the softer side I'd have thought. If that transpires and I might be way off the mark I can't see it suiting Cause of causes he has won on soft and heavy in the past but over longer trips his best forms on good/good-soft ground. I see he'd now be carrying 2nd highest weight behind Foxrock too and Gordon Elliott's got 10 of the 40 remaning in it so maybe they'll take a chance and see if he gets in at Aintree?
I'll be sticking with Bonny Kate my original mention but I'm less than happy about her price for such a wide-open race.

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