Grand National Trial (Haydock)

Micko70
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Grand National Trial (Haydock)

Postby Micko70 » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:48 pm

I have just finished my trends blog for this race, hopefully 1 of the 3 selections can follow up last weeks 25/1 winner

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410732

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Postby Derbz87 » Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:30 pm

Rigadin de Beauchene E/W for me has great record in this race winning once and second previously, was travelling really well last time out and got badly taken out by loose horse, Venetias horses are going well.

*great work on the trends blog by the way always worth a read

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:16 pm

Hey guys,

I'm sure there will be blogs appearing soon about this race, but I thought I'd start a thread off and get some discussion going as we are only a few days away.

Does anyone have any fancies yet?

I've seen a lot of discussion about the actual Grand National, but not about the trial this weekend!

I've started doing some basic trends, and will hopefully be comparing some notes with Rob, but one I keep looking at already is

SAROQUE (25/1)

This was one of the only finishers in the Welsh National this year,so we know it's fine with a long slog in the mud.

Having watched the replay a few times he raced prominently, verging on making all at a good gallop for the conditions, until 3 out.

He made a few minor jumping errors, but still kept up a good pace and stayed at the front until 3 out where it looks like a loose horse side swiped him and put him off course and allowed MOUNTAINOUS to swoop past.

It is racing off 131 on Saturday, down 1 point from 132 in the Welsh National, and going off a low weight again and I'm thinking 25/1 seems a bit big of a price and could go really well again given the amount of rain forecast this week, and if those mistakes are rectified.

It would also be great if Venetia put Charlie Deutsch on to take some more weight off and make things even more competitive.

I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts.

Ben

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Postby bristolbasher » Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:20 pm

Cheers for reposting Micko.

One thing about Russe Blanc is that Kerry Lee has said she will most likely send him to the Eider, but it's not set in stone.

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:28 pm

Fair point mate but if a horse qualifies it qualifies, i cannot discount a horse on trainer comments

The horse has a great chance in this and with the Eider being next week she will have to decide pretty quick, we havent had a great deal of rain up here recently but Newcastle isnt exactly the best course regarding water

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Postby bristolbasher » Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:51 pm

This is very true.

So the trends I'm using go on the last 13 runnings which make a difference from using 10.

All of a sudden we end up with:

10/13 – Aged 10 or younger
9/13 – Aged 9 or younger

Which for my purposes would rule out Mountainous, and Rigadin

It leaves the top of my list looking much like yours once they are removed, Woodford Country, Sun Cloud Saroque and Russe Blanc all look decent.

Sun Cloud however doesn't seem to want heavy ground at all, and the question mark over Russe Blanc running makes me want to wait until having a bet.

Woodford County is up 2lbs on ratings since the Welsh National run, where Saroque is down 1lb so the preference is for the latter.

Woodford is still of interest however, and has had a nice break since the Welsh National when compared to Saroque.

The issue are the low ratings however, as;

9/13 – Rated 135 or higher

But given Saroques run in the Welsh National and how testing the ground could/should be I'm willing to chance it for now and hoping we can push the pace from the front again and tidy up the jumping! The time since it's last run isn't ideal either, as it historically looks to have about a month between outings...
Last edited by bristolbasher on Wed Feb 17, 2016 8:51 am, edited 3 times in total.

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:57 pm

Good luck with whatever you decide to back

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Postby bristolbasher » Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:06 pm

Cheers.

Hopefully there will be some more people getting involved with their input, and picks, and some form guys getting in the mix!

I'm also starting to think I should just use 10 runnings, but I'm a bit of a sucker for getting a big a sample size as possible.

What are your thoughts on this, as I'm rather new to it all!

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:10 pm

It's your choice, i normally do 10 years but for some races (National, Lincoln) and other races later in year i will pick 20 years, have a look at the Grand National Trends blog, using 20 years gives impressive numbers of 16's and 17's, pretty strong trends

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Postby bristolbasher » Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:16 pm

I will check that now.

Thanks Mick

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Postby Derbz87 » Wed Feb 17, 2016 7:08 am

A lot of the horses have duel or even triple entries with the Eider Chase next week and BetBright at Kempton the week after so the field could and probably will cut up a little bit, ground could play a part no doubt too. I'd discounted Mountainous, Woodford County, Saroque on account of that Welsh National being such a brutal race but they'd all be entitled to go well on heavy ground if they've recovered, particularly Mountainous.

Just thought I'd put a word in for Harry the Viking who I think is being aimed at Eider Chase next week but is interesting at 25/1 on account of being beaten only a head in last years renewal of this, 4lbs higher this year but narrowly beaten by my selection for this Rigadin De Beauchene last time out, might reoppose on 6lb better terms this time and another mudlark who'll love this. As I say I think the 25/1 against Rigadin's 14's is reflected in running plans.

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Postby Robmull » Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:39 pm

Micko, great blog, as usual, whilst Ben, has also provided some great insight into his trends based approach.

I have also just completed my trends based blog (link below), which has used some different criteria and has identified a couple of likely candidates.

Betfred Grand National Trial Key Race Trends – 20 February 2016
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410738

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