Grand National Trial (Haydock)

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:54 pm

Nice 1 Rob, will check it out later when i have more time

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Postby bristolbasher » Wed Feb 17, 2016 5:54 pm

And someone said the other day that all the trends guys must come up with the same selections!

I'm on Saroque and Woodford Country as of right now.

Had a point EW on both just incase the prices shorten dramatically once the final declarations are locked in, and if neither show, it's not the most painful loss in the world!

Gl everyone.

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Feb 17, 2016 6:41 pm

I tend to work smaller stakes on these long, testing staying races because consistency seems to be lacking much of the time.

Mountainous is a good example, winning two Welsh Nationals but pulled up on the occasion he ran between those two wins.

Multiple entries from trainers and the Eider Chase so close at hand make life tough for an ante-post bet but I will go for a horse who I think should turn up, who is coming here in form and who is a course winner.

Cloudy Too is at least a horse turning up after a win last time and it was at Haydock and on very testing ground. He has a big weight here but has a touch of class and is still very fairly handicapped compared to his best form.

I like the look of his last win and he should surely go close here. If some are pulled out to wait for the Eider, I can see Cloudy Too being a popular pick and at 10/1 I think we will beat SP. I would have him at 7/1 myself.

Sue Smith's horses seem to be running well recently with 2 winners and 4 places from 14 runners the past fortnight.

I see Cloudy Too as solid each-way at 10/1 and I see this as a better target than the Eider Chase for him.

Cloudy Too 10/1 Each Way 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 (Ladbrokes)

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:48 pm

As the old song says, "What a difference a day makes"

Only eight left in the Haydock Grand National Trial now, with Mountainous the 7/2 favourite.

The good news is that Cloudy Too is now 5/1 and with only eight runners, we will get paid out if he can beat four horses home.

I hope some got on at 10/1 yesterday but knowing my record on the day, he'll go off 4/1 and finish 5th :(

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Postby Robmull » Thu Feb 18, 2016 3:31 pm

Must admit it was a bit of a surprise to see that only 8 runners have been declared and that neither of the entries to have met the minimum threshold score are set to run in the race.

However, I have undertaken further analysis and believe that I have identified a couple of alternative candidates who make plenty of appeal against the remaining runners.

Betfred Grand National Trial Key Race Trends – 20 February 2016 – Updated After Final Declaration Stage
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410738

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:32 pm

I was happy enough with 3rd place in a race where many of those who were fancied were disappointing.

Harry The Viking came under pressure early, while Mountainous never featured. Rigadin De Beauchene seemed to be going OK until his jumping fell apart and ended his challenge.

Maybe it was far enough for Cloudy Too, who only plodded on for 3rd from a horse more leg weary than himself.

Well done Robmull for identifying the winner in his two from the trends. A mixed bag for Kerry Lee with the winner and also Mountainous who was utterly dismal and pulled up.

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Postby Robmull » Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:53 pm

Thanks Leicester.

Have just scored BISHOPS ROAD on my Grand National trends and he achieves the minimum threshold score , in line with 9 of the last 10 winners, so is probably not the worst bet for the big race at current best odds of 33/1.

All the best.

Rob.

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:03 pm

I just wonder if Bishops Road had a hard race there. Only three managed to complete the course and having watched Mountainous after his tough Welsh National win, pulling up next time, it just puts me off his stable mate after such a similar slog.

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