Grand National 2016

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:24 pm

Many Clouds is due to run on Sunday at the rescheduled Kelso meeting.

There are ten entries at the moment but only six are jocked up so far.

Obviously this clearly rules him out of the Gold Cup just five days later.

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Postby Robmull » Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:03 pm


This leaves me with, Goonyella, Saint Are & Mountainous.

Rob how does these 3 score with your system.
Grittar,

They all currently meet my minimum threshold score and would be considered to be potential selections, albeit I would not be that keen on Goonyella and Mountainous unless the going is described as heavy, as in my opinion they are true mud larks that probably require almost bottomless ground to be seen at their best.

All the best.

Rob.

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Sun Mar 13, 2016 4:07 pm

Many Clouds romped home at Kelso by ten lengths today.

The reigning champ jumped really well and won easily, rightfully becoming the clear favourite for the race at between 10/1 and 8/1.

I can see him starting at 6/1 after what looked an ideal prep race. If Smad Place gives the form a boost in the Gold Cup it can only increase confidence behind Many Clouds.

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Postby Grittar » Sun Mar 13, 2016 6:20 pm

Really liked Many Clouds performance today. Outjumped everything, outstayed everything in other words pure class. However his form has been rock solid all year, with perhaps his first run which was needed. All this doesn’t mean he’ll win the National on April 9th, but Oliver Sherwood has given Many Clouds and Leighton Aspell the best chance possible.

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Postby Derbz87 » Tue Mar 15, 2016 9:21 pm

Have to say Holywell now looks ridiculously well handicapped for the national forget everything thats happened before us this season, this is a spring ground animal no doubts about it. Quality wise this nationals really taking shape Many Clouds, Silvi Conti and now the real Holywell has returned bring on April 9th!

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Postby The Market Man » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:38 pm

Ballycasey.

Breeding suggests he should stay the extreme distance as his dam was sired by Montelimar, whose immediate offspring include Grand National winners Hedgehunter and Montys Pass. He runs like hed stay and, after failing to live up to expectations in his RSA, he's been allowed to progress into a useful jumper and campaigned at shorter trips this season.
Mullins rates him and I'm looking at his runners and who else is Walsh going to ride ?

He's guaranteed a run and there's precedent for a horse running well in a National following a debut fall ( Ballycasey was actually brought down )

Still available at 80s.

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Postby Micko70 » Sat Mar 26, 2016 7:06 pm

Ballycasey.

Breeding suggests he should stay the extreme distance as his dam was sired by Montelimar, whose immediate offspring include Grand National winners Hedgehunter and Montys Pass. He runs like hed stay and, after failing to live up to expectations in his RSA, he's been allowed to progress into a useful jumper and campaigned at shorter trips this season.
Mullins rates him and I'm looking at his runners and who else is Walsh going to ride ?

He's guaranteed a run and there's precedent for a horse running well in a National following a debut fall ( Ballycasey was actually brought down )

Still available at 80s.
Ballycasey has let me down many times in the past, although in a recent interview, Willie said he is flying at home and one day everything will be spot on for a huge run

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Postby Grittar » Sun Mar 27, 2016 10:29 am

I have just completed my trends based blog (link below) for the Crabbie's Grand National Chase and whilst I have not scored all 126 of the entries at this stage, I have calculated the figures for the top 9 horses in the betting (including both of the Pricewise selections) and it is interesting that only 4 of them have currently achieved the minimum score, although there is plenty of time for things to change.

Crabbie's Grand National Chase Key Race Trends – 9 April 2016
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410747
I like using trends myself, since finding the 1998 winner Earth Summit which could be freely backed at 25/1 before the big day.

1 Eliminate all those above 11-5
2 Eliminate all those in the long handicap
3 Eliminate any younger than 8 and those older than 12
4 Eliminate any who has not won a chase over 3 miles or further.
5 Eliminate any who has not had a top 3 placings in a race of 3 miles 3 furlongs or further.
6 Eliminate any with less than 3 runs this season.
7 Eliminate any without a top 3 placing in any of last 3 runs.
8 Eliminate any without a top 2 placing in a chase with 16 or more runners.
9 Eliminate any who has not got placed in class 1 company.
10 Eliminate any who has not ran within 49 days of the big race itself.
11 Eliminate any who has not earned a RPR of 145 or greater in chasing this season.
12 Eliminate any with less than 10 chases.
13 Prefer those with a career best RPR in any of last 2 chases.

This leaves me with, Goonyella, Saint Are & Mountainous.

Rob how does these 3 score with your system.
Only Cause Of Causes to add to these three, but suspect he'll run in the Irish version and while that doen't necessarily rule him out of the Aintree version, my believe is he'll bypass the race. Mountainous looks extremely unlikely to run. So that leaves Goonyella and last year's runner up Saint Are.

Aside from trends think Many Clouds got a strong chance.

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Postby The Market Man » Sun Mar 27, 2016 5:02 pm

Ballycasey.

Breeding suggests he should stay the extreme distance as his dam was sired by Montelimar, whose immediate offspring include Grand National winners Hedgehunter and Montys Pass. He runs like hed stay and, after failing to live up to expectations in his RSA, he's been allowed to progress into a useful jumper and campaigned at shorter trips this season.
Mullins rates him and I'm looking at his runners and who else is Walsh going to ride ?

He's guaranteed a run and there's precedent for a horse running well in a National following a debut fall ( Ballycasey was actually brought down )

Still available at 80s.
Ballycasey has let me down many times in the past, although in a recent interview, Willie said he is flying at home and one day everything will be spot on for a huge run
His jumping has improved but he lacks a gear or two for the better 3 mile races.
I think the recent two and a half miler was a prep race, just to help sharpen him up before Aintree.

He's beginning to look quite appealing.

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Postby jaydubs » Sun Mar 27, 2016 5:17 pm

I would like to see figures on Willie Mullins horses on chases 3m +. His hurdlers are classy horses but I would back against almost everything of his chasing over 3m+. He tends to gave well backed horses but I don\'t think they win very often

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Postby Micko70 » Sun Mar 27, 2016 8:51 pm

I would like to see figures on Willie Mullins horses on chases 3m +. His hurdlers are classy horses but I would back against almost everything of his chasing over 3m+. He tends to gave well backed horses but I don\'t think they win very often
In the last 14 days, he has had 10 runners in Chases over 3 miles or further and no winners, although all of those were at Cheltenham

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Postby Robmull » Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:39 pm

I have now updated my trends based blog with scores for all 96 of the current entries, as listed in the Racing Post iPad edition, which makes for interesting reading.

Crabbie's Grand National Chase Key Race Trends – 9 April 2016 – Updated with Scores for all 96 Current Entries
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410747

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