Grand National 2016

The Market Man
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Postby The Market Man » Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:11 am

Great write ups from everyone as usual I'm not as knowledgeable as you guys so could you give me your thoughts on the last samurai and wonderful charm which I've picked in works sweepstake..all the best with all your bets over the meeting..cheers
I mentioned The Last Samuri as a potential Welsh National horse before Christmas. This is what i wrote in November :

" The Last Samuri, who will win a big handicap. Nice profile, well bred, top trainer with a good pool of jockeys to choose from "

He's since won two decent handicaps and is now officially rated twelve pounds higher than the mark he runs off in the National. He jumps well and his jockey is strong in the saddle, although yet to win a chase at Aintree. My one concern would be that he's done his winning already this season. A few years ago, Cloudy Lane won three races prior to Aintree ( including the Grimthorpe Chase like The Last Samuri ) and finished 6th in the big race as a 7-1 favourite.

It's extremely difficult to get horses in the winning enclosure more than three or four times in succession, particulaly in big, competitive handicaps. Not just because they are forced higher and higher up the ratings but from also from a training standpoint.

He should be thereabouts on the second circuit, anyway.

Wonderful Charm has won one Newton Abbot chase in two and a half years yet is one of the highest rated horses in the race - he appears to be one of those horses who is too highly rated for a handicap but not quite good enough to win at Graded level.

There's one particularly interesting piece of form from last year when he finished second in the 3 mile handicap here at the Grand National meeting, where he might have won but for a mistake a few fences out. He wasn't stopping at the line and he is related to some horses who stayed 4 miles - Garde Champetre won the Cross Country races a few times and Royal Auclair was second in the Grand National won by Hedgehunter. Don Poli and Irish National winner Butler's Cabin are two others.

I'd be surprised if he won it but wouldn't be surprised to see him sneek into the top 6.

Good luck !

Robmull
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Postby Robmull » Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:40 pm

I have just posted my final update of my trends based blog (link below), which includes my comments on the 5 qualifiers and 3 selections.

Hopefully, they will run as well as my trends based selections in the Topham Chase in which Eastlake won at 22/1 with Third Intention finishing third at 33/1.

Crabbie's Grand National Chase Key Race Trends – 9 April 2016 – Updated with Final Comments and Selections
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410747

Kessy1971
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Postby Kessy1971 » Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:56 am

Backed many clouds, yes it will be hard to win back to back nationals

Need lots of luck but Great jumper and stay all day

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:24 am

As its once year thing going for nice outsider..
Soll at 50/1 is value.. :yes: and he stays..
Was 4th here in December shorter trip.
The Nationals Soll completed 7th and 9th going was against him.
So got going he likes cut in the ground he had in December.
Could going be like when Red Maurder won,with rain forecast.

Also fancy Shutthefrontdooor had 20/1 on ante post.

And also fancy Druids Nephew at 16/1 who was unlucky last year.
But he reminds of West Tip and HedgeHunter both of those hoses fell
went on to win the following year so all is not lost if you selected a
horse that fell, as some come back following year and win..
GL everyone..
Ps Hope all the horses today, will return home safely..

titans choice
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Postby titans choice » Sat Apr 09, 2016 11:17 am

Shut The Front Doors odds keeps falling would not be surprised if it starts favourite again.

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Postby horage » Sat Apr 09, 2016 2:27 pm

5.15 AINTREE THE GRAND NATIONAL

After looking at the card for the big race I've come up with three Each Way
longshots because the favs price is to short ;although it has a good chance I just cant help thinking its a lot of weight to carry.

1st ROMFORD PELE 40/1 E.W.

This one ran in the Coral cup last time over hurdles and the time before that
chased home thistle crack ;its won on soft going before and getting weight
from the top of the market has a solid e.w. chance here at a whopping 40/1.

2ND UNIONISTE 40/1 E.W.

This one chased home many clouds in its prep race getting 4lbs from the winner ;today its getting a stone and 2 lbs so at the weights should have a chance to finish in front of MANY CLOUDS.....

3RD THE LAST SAMURI 20/1 e.w

This one won after the weights were published and stays the trip well
so must have a good chance of staying on up the run in when others are tiring badly on the run to home.

good luck and may the horse be with you

:hope:

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Postby Shrews » Sat Apr 09, 2016 2:58 pm

Chuffed to get on Aachen at 125/1 with Corals in Shrewsbury at 1pm. The Mrs wanted a bet on Rule The World and Boston Bob when I got home to Telford, so I went to Corals Wellington branch at 3.30 and put her pennies down to notice Aachen was now 80/1

So I had a bit more on :D

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Postby The Market Man » Sat Apr 09, 2016 3:02 pm

I've laid off my Saint Are bet

Ballycasey, Buywise, Morning Assembly, Rule The World, The Romford Pele are other each ways at bigger odds, smaller bets on Wonderful Charm and Kruzhlinin

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Postby Shrews » Sat Apr 09, 2016 4:29 pm

Chuffed to get on Aachen at 125/1 with Corals in Shrewsbury at 1pm. The Mrs wanted a bet on Rule The World and Boston Bob when I got home to Telford, so I went to Corals Wellington branch at 3.30 and put her pennies down to notice Aachen was now 80/1

So I had a bit more on :D
I'm never going to hear the last of this :lol:

sean rollings
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Postby sean rollings » Sat Apr 09, 2016 4:30 pm

wow great race and the winner has never won a chase before lol

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Postby mazeymay » Sat Apr 09, 2016 4:37 pm

Chuffed to get on Aachen at 125/1 with Corals in Shrewsbury at 1pm. The Mrs wanted a bet on Rule The World and Boston Bob when I got home to Telford, so I went to Corals Wellington branch at 3.30 and put her pennies down to notice Aachen was now 80/1

So I had a bit more on :D
I'm never going to hear the last of this :lol:
So dinner is on the Mrs then Shrews and it will be worth getting a free meal and a few beers and listening to
"see, I told you it would win and "I should have been in the OLBG compo as well" :D

Clearo611
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Postby Clearo611 » Sat Apr 09, 2016 4:41 pm

Goonyella needs to find a 5mile race!

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